Watching the Morning Line yesterday I was pleased and relieved to hear Ruby Walsh articulately explain how fences are like speed bumps - the higher they are then the slower you go and lowering them (as at Aintree) may well result in a faster run race with more casualties. Apparently the stats are available from Australia's almost identical modifications to their jumps courses. I've always agreed with the logic of this theory and it certainly looked as though there were just as many fallers yesterday as in pre-modified fence races so I thought I'd do the maths!
Yesterday at Aintree there were 3 chase races with a total of 32 runners (heavy ground). There were 6 fallers or unseats giving an 18.75% proportion of fallers/unseats.
Last year in 2010 at the same meeting, there were a total of 40 runners (soft ground) and 13 fallers or unseats giving a 32.5% proportion of fallers'/unseats.
The race fields were comparative numbers so it appears that Aintree should be feeling quite pleased with themselves.
As always on a Sunday, I'll be putting up my selections later in the morning but for now:
Kelso
|
First Choice
|
E/W or RF Choice
|
|
1
|
12:30
|
Our Joe Mac UP
|
Embsay Crag (EW)
|
2
|
13:00
|
The Panama Kid
|
|
3
|
14:30
|
Ballyfitz UR
|
|
4
|
15:00
|
Glenora Gale
|
Seedless (EW) 2nd
|
Warwick
|
First Choice
|
E/W or RF Choice
|
|
1
|
12:40
|
Captain Loui
|
|
2
|
14:10
|
Tour D’Argent
|
Wind And Waves (EW)
|
3
|
14:40
|
Spring Moon
|
Fairyhouse
|
First Choice
|
E/W or RF Choice
|
|
1
|
12:50
|
Galileo’s Choice
|
|
2
|
14:50
|
Droim Toll F
|
Lion Na Bearnai (EW) UP
|
Oh dear - more 2nd and URs than I've ever seen on one of these pages...
Good for Paddy Brennan visiting the on-course doctor and having to be signed off with dehydration therefore being unable to rice Pilgrim's Lane in the last race at Aintree on Saturday.. As a jockey, I would now know which owners I wouldn't really want to ride for and should I ever buy a racehorse, I now know which trainer not to send it to! Pilgrim's Lane (a 28/1 shot) had never won on anything other then good/firm and only ever place once with soft in the going description. What on earth possessed connections to run the horse .....and what is the owner thinking of if she reckons the law is going to listen to the hearsay evidence of an trainer's representative above that of an official declaration from a doctor on call. Reality checks and some consideration for the poor horse required from some methinks!
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