Cheltenham Festival 2018 Day 1

Tuesday 13 March 2018

---

SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE

Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh have won his race 3 of the past 5 runnings so with Getabird showing a frightening turn of foot last time out (same conditions) and an abundance of stamina, he can win this.

Paloma Blue ran too freely last time at Leopardstown so if finding some cover in this larger field, he can run into a place.

SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE
WIN	Getabird
Each Way	Paloma Blue

---

ARKLE NOVICES’ CHASE

Both Saint Calvados and Footpad are exemplary jumpers who seem to relish these condition – however Saint Calvados knows his jockey better than Footpad on this occasion and could might make the difference between first and second

ARKLE NOVICES’ CHASE
WIN	Saint Calvados
Forecast	Footpad

---

ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE

Vintage Clouds came a respectable 2^nd in his last (Grade 2) race and is as game as they come but is carrying 7lb higher than last year’s run when he fell so if the memory is still too fresh then your could do worse than look to Cogry who won here last October and has the least weight to carry with Jamie Bargary taking off 3lb

ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE
WIN	Vintage Clouds
Each Way	Cogry

---

CHAMPION HURDLE

Buveur D’Air is the stand out here and has to be the banker of the day

Faugheen sports first time cheekpieces which could be a revelation returning to the scene of his highest profile wins

CHAMPION HURDLE
WIN	Buveur D’Air
Each Way	Faugheen

---

OLBG MARES’ HURDLE

OK, so we have two bankers of the day with Apple’s Jade joining Buveur D’Air for the honours.  She is the returning queen of hurdles and has made short work of most of this field at one time or another. 

Midnight Tour can outrun her huge odds reunited with Davy Russell and with course and distance form as long as conditions don’t worsen

OLBG MARES’ HURDLE
WIN	Apple’s Jade
Each Way	Midnight Tour

---

NATIONAL HUNT CHASE

This race could be a war of attition – 4 miles on heavy/soft going!  Miss Parfois looks to be a ‘wind her up and let her go’ horse who should keep on going on ground she’s won on before – she’s only ever been out of the places on 2 of her 13 starts

Rathvinden hasn’t a problem with the ground and had is not been for the UR last time out, might well have been my first choice. 

NATIONAL HUNT CHASE
WIN	Ms Parfois
Each Way	Rathvinden

---

CLOSE BROTHERS NOVICES’ HANDICAP CHASE

Mister Whitaker is that rare breed – a Mick Channon chaser!  He has a decent enough strike rate here with them though and this course winner has taken to chasing (form reads 3-1-2-1) and can go well if coping with the going.

Livelovelaugh won’t have such ground worries and this drop back in trip will suit. Won’t be able to boss the field here though although he’ll likely try

CLOSE BROTHERS NOVICES’ HANDICAP CHASE
WIN	Mister Whitaker
Each Way	Livelovelaugh

---

©

Grand National 2017

Here I am again once more with my annual attempt at applying statistics and logic to that most illogical luck-fest of a spectacle that we know as the Grand National.

As always with a field of this size, I have weeded out a good number of the runners using some trusty trends:

• ·         Aged between 8 and 12 (past 61 years)             
• ·         NOT top weight
• ·         Official rating of 136+ (and preferably 143+)
• ·         Has run in the past 53 days
• ·         Has run in at least 10 chases
• ·         Has won a chase of 3 miles or more
• ·         Run between 3 and 6 times since August

At this point, I have cut the field to less than half (17 to be exact) so I’m now looking for a horse who has won no more than 3 handicap chases - another 3 depart the list.  Now I want to lose any dodgy jumpers – preferably having fallen no more than 2 times in their career – nor do I have any confidence with those recent fallers so now we lose Saint Are, Saphir Du Rheu and Vicente.

Now I have a shortlist of 11 to take a closer look at so here goes:

Blaklion will enjoy the good ground and is perfectly home in this graded company.  He has no stamina worries, a very accomplished jockey in Noel Fehily and the Twiston-Davies stable just hitting form

Cause Of Causes seems to prefer Cheltenham and right-handed courses.  Top amateur rider Jamie Codd knows him well and says he’s lazy but he’s another who will like the good going and relish the trip and I can see a decent performance looming.

Gas Line Boy ran in this 2 years ago….well he got as far as the first fence!  I can’t imagine he’ll be filled with confidence when he lines up with the other 39 runners and so I’ll pass!

Houblon Des Obeaux  Venetia Williams famously won this with 100/1 shot Mon Mome eight years ago and this horse has a similar profile – if anything, a little more classy.  He tends to let himself down with his jumping and isn’t so clever in large fields so on a going day with some clean jumping, he has a mere sniff of an each-way chance.

Just A Par One of five runners for Paul Nicholls, Just A Par is effective on any ground and Harry Cobden may have found the key to winning on him last time when they changed tactics to fool him (moody!).  I am seriously keen on his chances so long as he gets some luck in running as he’ll be coming from behind.

La Vaticane Another who’ll need luck in running but likely outclassed in this line up

Lord Windermere 2014 Gold Cup winner with Leighton Aspell, winning GBN rider from 2014 & 2015 booked to ride.  Trouble is, he hasn’t won since that Gold Cup glory and his last 2 appearances haven’t done much to convince that he’s about to win this.

Raz De Maree A game grinder who will be staying on when others have called enough.  Ger Fox has partnered him in his last 5 races (2-1-7-2-2). Irish trainer Gavin Cromwell’s only ever previous visit to Aintree resulted in a win.  A live each way chance.

Roi Des Francs I’m not convinced by his stamina and even if the blinkers work again this time, the fact still remains that he had to drop into a lowly 11k race to gain his first win since moving to Gordon Elliott’s.

Wonderful Charm will be a lot happier on the good ground this year as shown by his very close 2^nd in the Foxhunters at Cheltenham Festival this year.  This Paul Nicholls runner was running on at the finish then so the extra distance here will be a positive and history might just be made this year with Katie Walsh taking the ride again.

Wounded Warrior is happiest on winter ground with question marks over his stamina, jumping and recent form.  Underwhelming!

Most bookies are paying each way on the first five (those who should had their heads in shame are BetFred, Tote, BetBright and 188) and some are even going first 6 (kudos to PaddyPower, BetVictor and Betway) so my money will be carried by:

·         BLAKLION

·         CAUSE OF CAUSES

·         JUST A PAR

·         RAZ DE MAREE

·         WONDERFUL CHARM

Good luck with whatever you choose and may all runners and riders return home safe and sound.

©

April Air Kissing

Coleen Rooney, spokesperson for the Merseyside Wag Association (MWA for short) has threatened Aintree with action if there are not adequate and proper facilities for the visiting ladies this year..... 

MWA have demanded assurances that there will be a guaranteed supply of both prosecco and paparazzi at Aintree on Ladies Day or they may be forced to go shopping instead  .....   

Unbelievably Southwell saw a 66/1 winner on Tuesday with an official rating of just 23 and giving weight to every single one of her rivals..... 

There is now a Mahmood Al Zarooni running a builders merchants in Dubai ......

It is April Fools’ Day of course but scarily only one of the above is untrue.....