Grand National 2017

Here I am again once more with my annual attempt at applying statistics and logic to that most illogical luck-fest of a spectacle that we know as the Grand National.

As always with a field of this size, I have weeded out a good number of the runners using some trusty trends:

• ·         Aged between 8 and 12 (past 61 years)             
• ·         NOT top weight
• ·         Official rating of 136+ (and preferably 143+)
• ·         Has run in the past 53 days
• ·         Has run in at least 10 chases
• ·         Has won a chase of 3 miles or more
• ·         Run between 3 and 6 times since August

At this point, I have cut the field to less than half (17 to be exact) so I’m now looking for a horse who has won no more than 3 handicap chases - another 3 depart the list.  Now I want to lose any dodgy jumpers – preferably having fallen no more than 2 times in their career – nor do I have any confidence with those recent fallers so now we lose Saint Are, Saphir Du Rheu and Vicente.

Now I have a shortlist of 11 to take a closer look at so here goes:

Blaklion will enjoy the good ground and is perfectly home in this graded company.  He has no stamina worries, a very accomplished jockey in Noel Fehily and the Twiston-Davies stable just hitting form

Cause Of Causes seems to prefer Cheltenham and right-handed courses.  Top amateur rider Jamie Codd knows him well and says he’s lazy but he’s another who will like the good going and relish the trip and I can see a decent performance looming.

Gas Line Boy ran in this 2 years ago….well he got as far as the first fence!  I can’t imagine he’ll be filled with confidence when he lines up with the other 39 runners and so I’ll pass!

Houblon Des Obeaux  Venetia Williams famously won this with 100/1 shot Mon Mome eight years ago and this horse has a similar profile – if anything, a little more classy.  He tends to let himself down with his jumping and isn’t so clever in large fields so on a going day with some clean jumping, he has a mere sniff of an each-way chance.

Just A Par One of five runners for Paul Nicholls, Just A Par is effective on any ground and Harry Cobden may have found the key to winning on him last time when they changed tactics to fool him (moody!).  I am seriously keen on his chances so long as he gets some luck in running as he’ll be coming from behind.

La Vaticane Another who’ll need luck in running but likely outclassed in this line up

Lord Windermere 2014 Gold Cup winner with Leighton Aspell, winning GBN rider from 2014 & 2015 booked to ride.  Trouble is, he hasn’t won since that Gold Cup glory and his last 2 appearances haven’t done much to convince that he’s about to win this.

Raz De Maree A game grinder who will be staying on when others have called enough.  Ger Fox has partnered him in his last 5 races (2-1-7-2-2). Irish trainer Gavin Cromwell’s only ever previous visit to Aintree resulted in a win.  A live each way chance.

Roi Des Francs I’m not convinced by his stamina and even if the blinkers work again this time, the fact still remains that he had to drop into a lowly 11k race to gain his first win since moving to Gordon Elliott’s.

Wonderful Charm will be a lot happier on the good ground this year as shown by his very close 2^nd in the Foxhunters at Cheltenham Festival this year.  This Paul Nicholls runner was running on at the finish then so the extra distance here will be a positive and history might just be made this year with Katie Walsh taking the ride again.

Wounded Warrior is happiest on winter ground with question marks over his stamina, jumping and recent form.  Underwhelming!

Most bookies are paying each way on the first five (those who should had their heads in shame are BetFred, Tote, BetBright and 188) and some are even going first 6 (kudos to PaddyPower, BetVictor and Betway) so my money will be carried by:

·         BLAKLION

·         CAUSE OF CAUSES

·         JUST A PAR

·         RAZ DE MAREE

·         WONDERFUL CHARM

Good luck with whatever you choose and may all runners and riders return home safe and sound.

©

The Nationally Grand Blog of 2014

It doesn't seem so long ago that Mon Mome, Don't Push It, Ballabriggs, Neptune Collanges and Aurora's Encore were each winning the Grand National.  Given that amongst those five there have been 100/1, 66/1 and 33/ winners (the other two were 14/1 and 10/1) you can understand why this is the one race of the year that captures the imagination of the general public who will never have a bet again until next year.

So in pursuit of a windfall and bragging rights for the next month, I've been studying trends, form and generally crunching stats in the hope that this will all arrive with the name of whichever lucky (and there's a LOT of luck required) horse and rider manage to stay the distance, keep clear of the inevitable fallers and jump like a stag to get to the red and white lollipop before all else.

There are some very useful trends that can be useful when looking for a winner.  The boxes that all the past 10 winners have all ticked (and remember these have included those 100/1 and 66/1 winners!) are:

1. Aged between 9 and 12
2. Had a run since the date the weights were announced (05 Feb)
3. Won no more than 1 chase this season (thus protecting their handicap rating)
4. Won a chase of at least 3 mile distance
5. Run in at least ten chases
6. Run 3-6 times since Sept 01 last year
7. Irish or French bred
8. Career best RPR rating was achieved in a chase of 3 miles or more

These are useful trends to look at and many of the runners tick some but not so many tick all...... there are 9 that do and these are:  Across The Bay, Burton Port, Lion Na Bearnai, Long Run, Monbeg Dude, Pineau De Re, Quito De La Roque, Raz Du Maree and Teaforthree 

The course is being selectively watered overnight to maintain the good to soft (good in places) going

There's a whole host of the top jockeys out of the race due to injury including amongst many, Ruby Walsh, Daryl Jacob, Jason Maguire - all previous Grand National winners and quite a few lesser known names.  Since experience, fitness and nerves of steel count for that bit more when negotiating these tough fences, it's worth giving more consideration to those runners who have a talented pilot.

Now back to the nitty picky gitty!

Across the Bay has done all of his winning on heavy or soft and he won't be getting that here.  

Burton Port has never won over more than 3 miles 1 furlong and that was his last win 4 years ago.  Recent attempts haven't convinced on the stamina front.

Lion Na Bearnai won the Irish Grand National back in April 2012 but has only won once since.  However, his stamina isn't in question and he has won on this going before as well as heavy.  The booking of recent Cheltenham Gold Cup winning rider Davy Russell would imply that a good run in expected here.  I'd say he's worth an each way.

Long Run should stay this distance but this faster track is likely to put too much pressure on his less than impressive jumping so I'll leave him for another day.

Monbeg Dude has been in the papers lately with his famous part owner, Mike Tinsdall. He's won in graded company in December (Cheltenham) when he was staying on strongly over 3m 2f and coupled with his win over 3m 6f at Chepstow his stamina looks to be in order.  However, his jumping hasn't and that together with his usual hold up style means he is going to need a lot more luck than most.  He is the top pick though on the trends.

Pineau De Re fell on his only previous visit here but trainer Richard Newland is confident that they now know how best to ride him.  Unfortunately, the rider who knew best is Sam Twiston-Davies is aboard Tidal Bay in this race and today's jockey Leighton Aspell has not ridden a winner here in 5 years.  On the plus side, he looks as though he will last the distance though and the going will suit.  Perhaps an each way chance.

Quito De La Roque has been out of sorts lately, his last win was over a year ago and despite his trainer saying he is a Spring horse, most of his winning has been done on ground that has heavy in the going description.  

Raz Du Maree is a super jumper and a stayer who seems to like a flat galloping track ... but he's a little thing!  Last time he did finish ahead of both Seabass and Bog Warrior, who boosted that form with a Grade 2 win at Navan last Saturday so if he takes to these he's not without hope.

Teaforthree will be going off favourite and it's easy to see why.  He was third in this last year and perhaps kicked for home too soon.  He's not the most consistent jumper and has been known to jump to the right in the past which won't be too helpful here.  With a more patient ride (same jockey) and the extra year's experience, he might do better this year. His last win was in 2012 at Cheltenham when he was partnered by JT McNamara in the NH Chase....and yes, I backed him on course.  He is partnered today by Nick Scholfield who is an excellent rider but just not so good in chases at Aintree!

Teaforthree - Cheltenham March 14 at 13:43

Of those that don't tick the trend boxes, these also caught my eye.

Triolo D'Alene used the Cheltenham Gold Cup as a prep race!!  He won the Hennessy Gold Cup last November going away and beating Rocky Creek, Our Father and Prince De Beauchene in the process.  However, Rocky Creek has a 3lb pull this time (the other two have better weight advantages but not enough to turn things around in my opinion).  

Rocky Creek has form figures of 2-1-1-1-3-2-2 and is extremely lightly raced (down to ringworm more than design!).  Ruby Walsh told trainer Paul Nicholls that he though he was a national horse but he may just need another year?  Having said that, he oozes class.

Since one or two bookies are paying out on the first 6 places, I have listed my top 6 of the above in order of preference:

1. Teaforthree
2. Monbeg Dude
3. Rocky Creek    5^th
4. Lion Na Bearnai
5. Pineau De Re    1^st
6. Raz De Maree

Good luck & may all the runners and riders get home safely

The Blog of the Nationally Grand Kind

So here is my annual attempt at unravelling this 40 horse puzzle!

With such a large field, the first port of call is to weed out around half of the field with some nice fat juicy stats gleaned from the past ten renewals.  Now this method worked wonders in 2009 when my shortlist produced five of the first six (and yes that included Mon Mome!) so I’m hoping the lightening can strike again.

Here are the trends from the past ten years that I have used to narrow the field to a manageable size:

• Aged between 9 and 12
• Weight between 10-6 and 11-6
• Run in the past 53 days
• Had it's handicap mark (cleverly) protected by virtue of winning no more than one chase this season
• Has won a chase worth at least £29K
• Has won a chase of 3 miles or more (this little statistical nugget excludes Seabass at this stage!)
• Has achieved its highest RPR in a chase of 3 miles or further

This leave eight:

1. Ballabriggs
2. Cappa Bleu
3. Colbert Station
4. On His Own
5. Oscar Time
6. Roberto Goldback
7. Teaforthree
8. Treacle

Not such a bad list!

Still too many though, so let's throw in a couple more '10 out of 10 stats prefer'......

• Must have had 3-6 runs since 01 September
• Must have run in at least 10 chases in its career

That's ruthlessly chopped the list in half to now comprise of:

1. Ballabriggs
2. Oscar Time
3. Roberto Goldback
4. Teaforthree

So number crunching has given us four runners - three of whom have very good chances indeed.  Oscar Time would look the unlikeliest winner of this group but you never know what can happen in this race!  Here's some evaluation:

Ballabriggs

The winner in 2011 when I got an ear-bashing down the phone (I was trackside) from my daughter for failing to pick her hero Jason Maguire’s ride.  He is a bit of a forgotten horse this year after vying for antepost favouritism last year to win the race back to back – it was always going to be difficult up 10lbs from the year before.  This year he’s back to just 2lb above his winning 2011 mark.  We know Ballabriggs has the stamina and heart for this race but he is borderline “too old”.  However, he’s been very lightly raced since last year and Don McCain’s father, the legendary late Ginger, was able to bring Red Rum back to win this race not twice but three times - the last time aged 12 like this boy. 

Oscar Time

Coincidentally came second to Ballabriggs in 2011.  Since then his star hasn’t just declined, it’s hurtled towards earth at a colossal speed of knots (much like his jockey did when he unseated three runs ago – thankfully with no damage to either).  He had picked up a tendon injury which ruled him out of last year’s National and since then his two lasts, a fourth (aka third last) and a UR would suggest that the injury has left it's mark.  We can’t be certain that he is 100% but you can be sure that, given his connections, no expense will have been spared on his recovery.  So if he is a fully fit horse once again and the sight of the Aintree fences relight his fire then you never know.....

Roberto Goldback

This runner certainly has the trainer/jockey combination of the moment (can you believe that the last time Nicky Henderson was champion trainer was 86-87?  Neither could I but I double checked!!) When the current owner bought him, he sent him to Seven Barrows from Dessie Hughes in Ireland with the sole purpose of training for this race.  He jumps like a stag and the way he won going away at Ascot in December doesn't give any grounds for concern about the trip.  He goes on any ground and looks to have a very decent chance with some luck on his side.

Teaforthree

Another of Rebecca Curtis's gazelle-like string with no worries about the trip.  Teaforthree has some serious credentials including an NH chase win at Cheltenham in 2012 and a half length 2^nd in the Welsh National win earlier this year.  His last outing at Haydock was poor but today’s rider Nick Scholfield blamed the heavy ground.  Haydock heavy can be a bog and perhaps his previous win on heavy was 'in spite of' rather than 'because of' in which case his Welsh National 2^nd looks even better.  Teaforthree doesn’t have the assistance of McCoy today but Nick Scholfield is a more than capable replacement – my only (minor?) niggle is that Nick doesn't have the strike rate in chases at this course that he has elsewhere.

Since most bookies are paying out on the first five places (including our favourite PaddyPower of the lucky pants), I’ve decided to throw in a wild card from those who fell at the metaphorical final fence. 

On His Own and Treacle are dodgy jumpers (I still think of Giles Brandreth whenever I hear that phrase) so they’re not getting back in and I’m left pondering between Colbert Station and Cappa Bleu. 

Colbert Station has never won further than 3 miles and seems to have a preference for soft and heavy going plus he’s  never seen the National fences before so I shall forsake him (and McCoy's opinion, gulp!) 

for the proven stamina and experience of Cappa Bleu who will also love the ground.

So the Final Five

Cappa Bleu  2nd 12/1

Roberto Goldback  UP

Ballabriggs  UP

Teaforthree  3rd  10/1

Oscar Time  4th  66/1

And all came home safe and sound 

To get you in the winning mood:

'Dodgy Jumpers Can Stay At Home' Blog & Updates - Aintree Day 1 (12 April)

The first day of the Aintree Festival  and I shall be looking for 'horses for courses', proven jumpers and horses who either didn't turn up to Cheltenham this year or weren't given a hard time there if they did (I can forgive a horse who may have pulled up as they could well have been looked after for Aintree).  


I have come to the conclusion that although a good horse may perform equally well at both Cheltenham and Aintree but NOT within a month of each other.....I still haven't forgiven Oscar Whisky for his annihilation of (my favourite horse) Peddler's Cross.  As for horses who are dodgy jumpers (why does Giles Brandreth always spring to mind when I hear that phrase?) then they may as well stay at home!  


Big Bucks must surely be the banker of the day meeting (special concession  - above notes don't apply as he is not a mere horse but a monster hurdling machine!).  The enjoyment of watching him racing without one second of worry or concern about his jumping is one of life's pleasures.  Some may argue that he had to work a bit harder than he has in recent months/years at the Festival this year to beat Voler La Vedette but that's insulting the runner up who ran a brave (and career best race) and also the rest of the field, who were top quality opposition.  Big Bucks will always do just enough and Ruby knows him so well that he is always aware of what there is left in the tank and when to press the button.


PaddyPower are refunding bets if second to Riverside Theatre in the Aintree BetFred Bowl at 15:05 ....what does this tell us?  Well, he did have a hard won race at the Festival and he isn't Big Bucks!

A couple of my trackers emails have come through this morning so I'll share the one that has a chance!  Fidelor was heavily backed exactly a week ago for a Hereford Class 4 20f Hurdle ( G/S, G) and was a late NR.  He's running today at Newton Abbot in the 16:40 which is a class 4 19f hurdle on good ground and I think he's worth an each way before the price is gone. The other is Lyvius in the 14:30 (jury's out!)


I can see Ruby/Nicholls having a good day today. Paul Nicholls has left the ides of March well behind him and is now churning out winners at a rate of 56% over the past fortnight!


Only the one winner today (wasn't hard to find!) but I feel sure this would have been two if Folkestone had managed to run their card!  Loss of -8.75 unfortunately :(

	Aintree	First Choice	E/W or Forecast Choice
1	14:00	Big Bucks 1st
2	14:30	Countrywide Flame 2nd
3	15:05	What A Friend UP	Nacarat (EW) UP
4	15:40	Boxer Georg (EW) UP
5	16:15	Takeroc (EW)  UP

Notes:

1/            Big Bucks at 1.20 (1/5) isn’t going to make anyone rich but 20% is a hell of a lot better return than the banks interest!

	Newton Abbot	First Choice	E/W or Forecast Choice
1	16:40	Fidelor 2nd

	Folkestone	First Choice	E/W or Forecast Choice
1	17:05	Sherman McCoy Ab

I'll keep adding through the morning (incl Aintree) as I conclude each race - much thinking and pondering in progress................

Saturday's Tingly Day Selections & Updates - 03 December

An excellent day's racing in store today and I'm looking forward to seeing Al Ferof, Kauto Stone, Sizing Europe, Hello Bud, Niche Market, Prophete De Guye, Niche Market and a whole host of other quality horseys......another in this house (no names!) is looking forward to seeing Apache Drums (7th) and Indian Pipe Dream (PU) because "horses named after Red Indians Native Americans always win"!  In which case all my studying is superfluous and I will hear no end of it!

The blog had it's best ever day for profits yesterday.  It's a funny old game this horseracing ....you have a few bad days but if you keep the faith (and nerve and confidence), you are eventually rewarded with a belter of a day or even a run of them to make up for those bad days.  It never fails to amaze me how much your self confidence can affect the rational thought required in this game.  

It's very easy when you're starting out to try to chase the losses and one of the hardest things to do is to find the discipline to draw a line under it, learn from it (if you can but sometimes the results are totally inexplicable) and continue.  

Every couple of months or so, I'll spend time 'overhauling' my system as nothing in life stays the same for long and in between these overhauls I'll input my results each night so it's being continually tinkered with.....a bit like filling up with petrol in between services!  

If it's not broke you can still improve it !

	Aintree	First Choice	E/W or RF Choice
1	12:00	Cinders And Ashes(2.23)1st
2	12:35	Wyse Hill Teabags PU	Reindeer Dippin (EW) 2nd
3	13:05	Comeragh King UP
4	14:10	Hello Bud F
5	14:45	Nacarat UP
6	15:20	Linnel 2nd	Nikola (EW) UP

Notes:

1/             I think young Donald could have a very good day!  C&A was unlucky LTO and Keys is a classy opponent but I think experience will prevail in these conditions.

4/             Nearly 14 yo!  I’d have gone with Rare Bob but believe that he needs more ‘persuasion’ – not investing too much here though!

5/             Will have needed the run LTO – should get to the front and stay there!

	Chepstow	First Choice	E/W or RF Choice
1	12:25	Tour Des Champs UP
2	13:30	Knock A Hand (3.71) 1st
3	15:15	Shoreacres UP

	Sandown	First Choice	E/W or RF Choice
1	12:55	Knight Pass 3rd	Tante Sissi (EW) UP (4th)
2	13:25	Poungach (3.75) 1st	Valid Point (EW) UP
3	13:55	Al Ferof (1.43)  1st
4	15:05	Kauto Stone 2nd

Notes:
1/         I’d have Tanta Sissi ahead of Black Thunder – both unraced over hurdles but Tante Sissi has much better form in higher class NH flat races  

	Wolves	First Choice	E/W or RF Choice
1	18:50	Nicholascopernicus UP
2	19:20	Seek The Fair Land UP
3	19:50	Hinton Admiral 2nd	Mawjoodah (EW)
4	20:20	Silver Blossom UP
5	21:20	Eastern Gift UP

Notes:

5/         Robert Winston has two rides here tonight – the first and the last so if he’s hanging around all Saturday night for this then it’s looking good!

So as good as yesterdays!  -9.63