The Nationally Grand Blog of 2014

It doesn't seem so long ago that Mon Mome, Don't Push It, Ballabriggs, Neptune Collanges and Aurora's Encore were each winning the Grand National.  Given that amongst those five there have been 100/1, 66/1 and 33/ winners (the other two were 14/1 and 10/1) you can understand why this is the one race of the year that captures the imagination of the general public who will never have a bet again until next year.

So in pursuit of a windfall and bragging rights for the next month, I've been studying trends, form and generally crunching stats in the hope that this will all arrive with the name of whichever lucky (and there's a LOT of luck required) horse and rider manage to stay the distance, keep clear of the inevitable fallers and jump like a stag to get to the red and white lollipop before all else.

There are some very useful trends that can be useful when looking for a winner.  The boxes that all the past 10 winners have all ticked (and remember these have included those 100/1 and 66/1 winners!) are:

1. Aged between 9 and 12
2. Had a run since the date the weights were announced (05 Feb)
3. Won no more than 1 chase this season (thus protecting their handicap rating)
4. Won a chase of at least 3 mile distance
5. Run in at least ten chases
6. Run 3-6 times since Sept 01 last year
7. Irish or French bred
8. Career best RPR rating was achieved in a chase of 3 miles or more

These are useful trends to look at and many of the runners tick some but not so many tick all...... there are 9 that do and these are:  Across The Bay, Burton Port, Lion Na Bearnai, Long Run, Monbeg Dude, Pineau De Re, Quito De La Roque, Raz Du Maree and Teaforthree 

The course is being selectively watered overnight to maintain the good to soft (good in places) going

There's a whole host of the top jockeys out of the race due to injury including amongst many, Ruby Walsh, Daryl Jacob, Jason Maguire - all previous Grand National winners and quite a few lesser known names.  Since experience, fitness and nerves of steel count for that bit more when negotiating these tough fences, it's worth giving more consideration to those runners who have a talented pilot.

Now back to the nitty picky gitty!

Across the Bay has done all of his winning on heavy or soft and he won't be getting that here.  

Burton Port has never won over more than 3 miles 1 furlong and that was his last win 4 years ago.  Recent attempts haven't convinced on the stamina front.

Lion Na Bearnai won the Irish Grand National back in April 2012 but has only won once since.  However, his stamina isn't in question and he has won on this going before as well as heavy.  The booking of recent Cheltenham Gold Cup winning rider Davy Russell would imply that a good run in expected here.  I'd say he's worth an each way.

Long Run should stay this distance but this faster track is likely to put too much pressure on his less than impressive jumping so I'll leave him for another day.

Monbeg Dude has been in the papers lately with his famous part owner, Mike Tinsdall. He's won in graded company in December (Cheltenham) when he was staying on strongly over 3m 2f and coupled with his win over 3m 6f at Chepstow his stamina looks to be in order.  However, his jumping hasn't and that together with his usual hold up style means he is going to need a lot more luck than most.  He is the top pick though on the trends.

Pineau De Re fell on his only previous visit here but trainer Richard Newland is confident that they now know how best to ride him.  Unfortunately, the rider who knew best is Sam Twiston-Davies is aboard Tidal Bay in this race and today's jockey Leighton Aspell has not ridden a winner here in 5 years.  On the plus side, he looks as though he will last the distance though and the going will suit.  Perhaps an each way chance.

Quito De La Roque has been out of sorts lately, his last win was over a year ago and despite his trainer saying he is a Spring horse, most of his winning has been done on ground that has heavy in the going description.  

Raz Du Maree is a super jumper and a stayer who seems to like a flat galloping track ... but he's a little thing!  Last time he did finish ahead of both Seabass and Bog Warrior, who boosted that form with a Grade 2 win at Navan last Saturday so if he takes to these he's not without hope.

Teaforthree will be going off favourite and it's easy to see why.  He was third in this last year and perhaps kicked for home too soon.  He's not the most consistent jumper and has been known to jump to the right in the past which won't be too helpful here.  With a more patient ride (same jockey) and the extra year's experience, he might do better this year. His last win was in 2012 at Cheltenham when he was partnered by JT McNamara in the NH Chase....and yes, I backed him on course.  He is partnered today by Nick Scholfield who is an excellent rider but just not so good in chases at Aintree!

Teaforthree - Cheltenham March 14 at 13:43

Of those that don't tick the trend boxes, these also caught my eye.

Triolo D'Alene used the Cheltenham Gold Cup as a prep race!!  He won the Hennessy Gold Cup last November going away and beating Rocky Creek, Our Father and Prince De Beauchene in the process.  However, Rocky Creek has a 3lb pull this time (the other two have better weight advantages but not enough to turn things around in my opinion).  

Rocky Creek has form figures of 2-1-1-1-3-2-2 and is extremely lightly raced (down to ringworm more than design!).  Ruby Walsh told trainer Paul Nicholls that he though he was a national horse but he may just need another year?  Having said that, he oozes class.

Since one or two bookies are paying out on the first 6 places, I have listed my top 6 of the above in order of preference:

1. Teaforthree
2. Monbeg Dude
3. Rocky Creek    5^th
4. Lion Na Bearnai
5. Pineau De Re    1^st
6. Raz De Maree

Good luck & may all the runners and riders get home safely

The Blog of the Nationally Grand Kind

So here is my annual attempt at unravelling this 40 horse puzzle!

With such a large field, the first port of call is to weed out around half of the field with some nice fat juicy stats gleaned from the past ten renewals.  Now this method worked wonders in 2009 when my shortlist produced five of the first six (and yes that included Mon Mome!) so I’m hoping the lightening can strike again.

Here are the trends from the past ten years that I have used to narrow the field to a manageable size:

• Aged between 9 and 12
• Weight between 10-6 and 11-6
• Run in the past 53 days
• Had it's handicap mark (cleverly) protected by virtue of winning no more than one chase this season
• Has won a chase worth at least £29K
• Has won a chase of 3 miles or more (this little statistical nugget excludes Seabass at this stage!)
• Has achieved its highest RPR in a chase of 3 miles or further

This leave eight:

1. Ballabriggs
2. Cappa Bleu
3. Colbert Station
4. On His Own
5. Oscar Time
6. Roberto Goldback
7. Teaforthree
8. Treacle

Not such a bad list!

Still too many though, so let's throw in a couple more '10 out of 10 stats prefer'......

• Must have had 3-6 runs since 01 September
• Must have run in at least 10 chases in its career

That's ruthlessly chopped the list in half to now comprise of:

1. Ballabriggs
2. Oscar Time
3. Roberto Goldback
4. Teaforthree

So number crunching has given us four runners - three of whom have very good chances indeed.  Oscar Time would look the unlikeliest winner of this group but you never know what can happen in this race!  Here's some evaluation:

Ballabriggs

The winner in 2011 when I got an ear-bashing down the phone (I was trackside) from my daughter for failing to pick her hero Jason Maguire’s ride.  He is a bit of a forgotten horse this year after vying for antepost favouritism last year to win the race back to back – it was always going to be difficult up 10lbs from the year before.  This year he’s back to just 2lb above his winning 2011 mark.  We know Ballabriggs has the stamina and heart for this race but he is borderline “too old”.  However, he’s been very lightly raced since last year and Don McCain’s father, the legendary late Ginger, was able to bring Red Rum back to win this race not twice but three times - the last time aged 12 like this boy. 

Oscar Time

Coincidentally came second to Ballabriggs in 2011.  Since then his star hasn’t just declined, it’s hurtled towards earth at a colossal speed of knots (much like his jockey did when he unseated three runs ago – thankfully with no damage to either).  He had picked up a tendon injury which ruled him out of last year’s National and since then his two lasts, a fourth (aka third last) and a UR would suggest that the injury has left it's mark.  We can’t be certain that he is 100% but you can be sure that, given his connections, no expense will have been spared on his recovery.  So if he is a fully fit horse once again and the sight of the Aintree fences relight his fire then you never know.....

Roberto Goldback

This runner certainly has the trainer/jockey combination of the moment (can you believe that the last time Nicky Henderson was champion trainer was 86-87?  Neither could I but I double checked!!) When the current owner bought him, he sent him to Seven Barrows from Dessie Hughes in Ireland with the sole purpose of training for this race.  He jumps like a stag and the way he won going away at Ascot in December doesn't give any grounds for concern about the trip.  He goes on any ground and looks to have a very decent chance with some luck on his side.

Teaforthree

Another of Rebecca Curtis's gazelle-like string with no worries about the trip.  Teaforthree has some serious credentials including an NH chase win at Cheltenham in 2012 and a half length 2^nd in the Welsh National win earlier this year.  His last outing at Haydock was poor but today’s rider Nick Scholfield blamed the heavy ground.  Haydock heavy can be a bog and perhaps his previous win on heavy was 'in spite of' rather than 'because of' in which case his Welsh National 2^nd looks even better.  Teaforthree doesn’t have the assistance of McCoy today but Nick Scholfield is a more than capable replacement – my only (minor?) niggle is that Nick doesn't have the strike rate in chases at this course that he has elsewhere.

Since most bookies are paying out on the first five places (including our favourite PaddyPower of the lucky pants), I’ve decided to throw in a wild card from those who fell at the metaphorical final fence. 

On His Own and Treacle are dodgy jumpers (I still think of Giles Brandreth whenever I hear that phrase) so they’re not getting back in and I’m left pondering between Colbert Station and Cappa Bleu. 

Colbert Station has never won further than 3 miles and seems to have a preference for soft and heavy going plus he’s  never seen the National fences before so I shall forsake him (and McCoy's opinion, gulp!) 

for the proven stamina and experience of Cappa Bleu who will also love the ground.

So the Final Five

Cappa Bleu  2nd 12/1

Roberto Goldback  UP

Ballabriggs  UP

Teaforthree  3rd  10/1

Oscar Time  4th  66/1

And all came home safe and sound 

To get you in the winning mood: