There have been thunderstorms and rain to accompany the humidity so the going is now sloppy.
I've been advised to look again for a 3yo carrying 9st (thanks once again daughter!)
Improving horses have done well over the years (i.e. improving their placings 4-3-2 style) so that's a positive to look out for. This race will be run at a fast fast pace - more so with the rain this morning - and Trinniberg (who hasn't a hope of staying 10f surely?) is likely to charge out of the stalls like a bat out of hell and will mess with the other front runners heads! It looks as though it may be set up nicely for a closer running close to the pace which should come from the mid to bottom half of the draw.
We all know by now that stall 1 is the coffin box and this is where Daddy Long Legs is starting from. The loading process means that the horses in stalls 1 and 11 (Alpha) will spend the longest amount of time waiting in the stalls....it's not looking good for an O'Brien cross-the-Atlantic double. Looking positively it's not impossible to win from this draw and happens roughly once every 30 years - the last time was 1986 so it's about due again. However Daddy Long Legs is going to have to be so fast away that I should be checking to see if a certain Mr O'Brien has left any positive feedback on eBay for the purchase of nitro methane equine rocket boosters.Stall 1 may be a bad place to be starting from but at least 12 winners have come from there unlike stalls 17, 18, or 19 where no winners have come from. Only 1 winner has come out of stall 20 (Big Brown in 2008 and he still went off fav) so I will be crossing all these off my shortlist.
There are lots more stats to play with here but the only other one that I'm taking much notice of will be that no horse who was unraced as a 2 year old has won in 130 years. The lack of experience is a bit negative and so Bodemeister is very much up against it on this stat!
Daddy Nose Best (left) is interesting. A decent draw with course form and an improver. He'll come from behind so all the pace in this race will be welcome. Half brother to Daddy Long Legs (but with a better draw) he won the grade 3 Sunland Derby on dirt last month. Dullahan and Creative Cause have both had recent injury scares/issues which is enough to have me looking elsewhere.
Gemologist is another who interests me greatly! He battled back gamely to win his last race. Half brother to Well Armed who won the 2009 Dubai World Cup and trained by Todd Pletcher, he has won here before but the wet track is an unknown. Great attitude.
Went The Day Well is now trained my last year's winning trainer (and fellow Cambridge born peep) Graham Motion after leaving Ed McMahon in February. There have been some rather ungracious comments from the new owners, Team Valor directed towards Ed McMahon this week but if this horse does well tonight then I think they have the previous trainer to thank as much as anyone. He'll get every yard of the 10 furlongs but the previous
Take Charge Indy is the final runner on my shortlist. He is ridden by Calvin Borel (fighter and top jock!) who won the Florida Derby with him (as well as winning 3 of the last 5 Kentucky Derby winners) although he won't have it all his own way in front this time. He's proven on wet track and trained by Patrick Byrne (no shabby trainer is he either).
But the final three with my each way £££s on their backs then will be :
Daddy Nose Best
Take Charge Indy
Gemologist
....but I'd absolutely love Colm O'Donoghue to ride out of his skin to win or place on Daddy Long Legs to get that cross Atlantic double!
And don't look to back anything in this race on Betfair now as you can't! Only Antepost bets could be placed and there's no D.O.R. market due to 'contractual obligations'.
Watch live streaming video from kyderby at livestream.com
http://www.vipbox.tv/watch/50889/1/138th-kentucky-derby-live-stream-online.html
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