A late start today! Newmarket has had no further rain and now officially good to soft but knowing how windy it gets up on the heath, unless there is further rain then it could well dry even further.
2000 Guineas (the old money race)
The stalls will be centre track so the earlier races will give a clue as to the best draw - though chances are that the stands side will have the best ground and a high draw will be an advantage which is where all the favs are coming from - but it's all supposition at this point!
It was helpfully pointed out to me that I should look for a 3yo carrying 9st as these have won the past 10 runnings ... thanks daughter!!!
It's been extremely hard to put my soft spot for Caspar Netscher to one side when looking at the Guineas card today. He's been a blog nap in the past but would have liked to see some more rain overnight. Shane Kelly is riding today (he won on him lto) who seems to have become the favoured jockey after Fallon was unable to get nearer than 8th over a mile at the Breeder's Cup Juvenile last November (could anyone have done?). He is better than his Middle Park Stakes 5th would suggest - finishing well and just a length and a half behind the winner after being stuck without a run. The draw may well be against him today though and although I'd love to see him win, realistically and at his best he might manage a place so I'll have a very small sentimental and hopeful each way investment at a big price.
He led for a little way and didn't disgrace himself to badly in 9th. Definitely more to come this year.
I am surprised to see Fallon without a ride in the 2000 Guineas - quite sad really when he's won this twice in the past 8 years . I know he's in the 'twilight' of his riding career but he still has plenty of ability and racing brain! If I were him, I'd be looking for a new agent (joke! He's got through more in the past 2 years than hot dinners - quite possibly literally).
There's bee a lot of chat about Camelot preferring drying ground....why??? He's a Montjeu so surely soft is a bonus (I always prefer the Henry Cecil theory of looking to the sire for going and dam for distance) ? I have learned to take all soundbytes, quotes and utterances coming from Ballydoyle with a pinch (no.. make that a pot) of salt! "He'll come on for the run" anybody?? I do wonder if this is just a 'prep race' for the Derby for Camelot ... he's good but he's no Frankel and the 15/8 is far too short for me (only 2 winners have won this from the past 10 running by the way)!
The real deal! He drifted just before the off and I'm not sure Joseph gave him such a good ride as some are saying (a tad cocky to leave it so late?) but maybe those were his orders and the ground negated Camelot's turn of foot.
The other Ballydoyle runner, Power is a decent price and holds no Derby entry which would suggest that this may be the target all along. I have no concerns about the mile as Seamie and Ryan have both said he'd be at his best over a mile and he can win on any ground. He's placed here in the past as well so we know he like the track (if the Dewhurst had been a mile then he'd have won!) and the big field won't faze him (he's won in a 23 runner field before today). Very high on my list.
One word...disappointing. Second from last ...but made Camelot look even better!
Born To Sea - this half brother to both Sea The Stars and Galileo is a fascinating runner but with only 2 runs under his belt, could be anything but won't have my ££££ riding with it until we find out. Jury's out but not a group horse
French Fifteen is my pick of the French runners (and probably has the best draw of the three). He won the Criterium last October (quite easily and having been short of room) on soft ground and all his most recent outings have been on going with soft in the description - although he has won on good ground should it dry out more than expected today. If last year's potential is proved to be fulfilled then he has a very big chance.
Sob! So close - 2nd by a neck.
Verdict: Camelot needs to place (at least) to justify his Derby entry but I can't bring myself to back him to win so I'll be on these three each way:
2000 Guineas (the old money race)
The stalls will be centre track so the earlier races will give a clue as to the best draw - though chances are that the stands side will have the best ground and a high draw will be an advantage which is where all the favs are coming from - but it's all supposition at this point! It was helpfully pointed out to me that I should look for a 3yo carrying 9st as these have won the past 10 runnings ... thanks daughter!!!
He led for a little way and didn't disgrace himself to badly in 9th. Definitely more to come this year.
I am surprised to see Fallon without a ride in the 2000 Guineas - quite sad really when he's won this twice in the past 8 years . I know he's in the 'twilight' of his riding career but he still has plenty of ability and racing brain! If I were him, I'd be looking for a new agent (joke! He's got through more in the past 2 years than hot dinners - quite possibly literally).
There's bee a lot of chat about Camelot preferring drying ground....why??? He's a Montjeu so surely soft is a bonus (I always prefer the Henry Cecil theory of looking to the sire for going and dam for distance) ? I have learned to take all soundbytes, quotes and utterances coming from Ballydoyle with a pinch (no.. make that a pot) of salt! "He'll come on for the run" anybody?? I do wonder if this is just a 'prep race' for the Derby for Camelot ... he's good but he's no Frankel and the 15/8 is far too short for me (only 2 winners have won this from the past 10 running by the way)!
The real deal! He drifted just before the off and I'm not sure Joseph gave him such a good ride as some are saying (a tad cocky to leave it so late?) but maybe those were his orders and the ground negated Camelot's turn of foot.
The other Ballydoyle runner, Power is a decent price and holds no Derby entry which would suggest that this may be the target all along. I have no concerns about the mile as Seamie and Ryan have both said he'd be at his best over a mile and he can win on any ground. He's placed here in the past as well so we know he like the track (if the Dewhurst had been a mile then he'd have won!) and the big field won't faze him (he's won in a 23 runner field before today). Very high on my list.
One word...disappointing. Second from last ...but made Camelot look even better!
Born To Sea - this half brother to both Sea The Stars and Galileo is a fascinating runner but with only 2 runs under his belt, could be anything but won't have my ££££ riding with it until we find out. Jury's out but not a group horse
Trumpet Major is the form horse on paper. Course, distance and going are all proven and he's looking spot on for this with the stable in great form and Hughsie back in the winning groove after his ridiculous Indian ban/holiday. The only negative is that he has yet to win a group 1 race though unlike many of the other hopefuls ...but then Sea The Stars hadn't either when he won in 2009.
Also had his head in front at one point but out battled 4th
Also had his head in front at one point but out battled 4th
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| Think About It! |
Sob! So close - 2nd by a neck.
Verdict: Camelot needs to place (at least) to justify his Derby entry but I can't bring myself to back him to win so I'll be on these three each way:
- Trumpet Major
- Power
- French Fifteen
That was the 'old money' blog, the 'chickens' blog will be up later.....................
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