Some very close calls at big prices but no cigar yesterday (well one cheroot such was it's price!) so the angles need a tad more refining! The Cheka, Society Rock, Van Der Art, Three Am Tour and Swinging Hawk all placed but they need longer necks....and who the heck let Tiddliwinks play? Ruined my 1-2 so he did!
Onto more of the Jorvik stuff .....
Distance and galloping track winners will be the order of the day (for those races that aren't 2yo maidens) - which may sound obvious but would have discounted Flag Officer and The Fun Crusher on Wednesday which were both blog picks.
13:30 I will be looking for something coming from low to mid draw here - the previous four renewals have given us three low drawn winners and one mid draw - which correlates with the 'everyday' draw bias so this means 1-10. I like Ancient Cross (Michael Easterby) who has inexplicably (?) been running at 6f since last September without much success and is now reverting back to 5f - the distance he last won at in June 2011. Therein lies the problem - his older legs may not be so speedy enough any longer to repeat his win from last year. Steps is very interesting and although his trainer (Roger Varian) doesn't like his draw in stall 1, Tournedos won from here with a hold up ride in 2008 so it's been done! The final shortlister is Doctor Parkes but I have a niggle that he is still too high in the weights to get his nose in front.
- Steps UP (8th)
- Ancient Cross UP (10th)
- Doctor Parkes UP (5th)
14:00 This is a favourites race! It's been won six times in the last ten renewals by the SP favourite which looks set to be Izzi Top adding to the Gosden/Buick stampede. You can see why she should be favourite with a good draw, proven stamina for the trip, a group win under her belt this season already (carrying 3lbs more and beating Timepiece on what was both their seasonal debuts) and the stable already have two meeting winners (from two!). Sea Of Heartbreak could be extremely good value though - she came 5th at Woodbine in the valuable EP Taylor stakes last October and won on her first outing of 2010 with a 2nd last year...if she manages 3rd this year at 14/1 then that wouldn't be sniffed at ...she also has the help of James Doyle fresh from his win here yesterday aboard Secret Witness.
- Izzi Top 1st (7/2)
- Sea Of Heartbreak UP (9th)
14:30 The big one! The Dante Stakes. All but two (Ptoloemaic and Ektihaam) hold Derby entries. This is a race which Ballydoyle, Stoutey and Godolphin have monopolised between them, winning 7 of the past 10 renewals. This year O'Brien has Ernest Hemingway and Godolphin have Mandaean - Sir Michael has no entry. I would suggest that these two have the prize between them with only Bonfire having enough class to give them any worries. Now Bonfire hasn't won at this distance so I have to throw him off my shortlist (see above!) which is either a brave or foolish thing to do. We've only seen Ernest Hemingway once before when he made all but he would have to be spectacular to run that way today (there are at least 2 other front runners in the field) so I would hope that we could see a Camelot style ride from young Joseph...but perhaps not leaving it until tooooo late please! I have a feeling that this colt could be very special and so am going with my guts on this one.
- Ernest Hemingway UP (7th)
- Mandaean UP (6th)
15:00 I see that Fallon has lost another ride to Ryan Moore in Fury (what has he been doing/saying/up to?) but unlike Wednesday when he could sail past Hoof It on Society Rock, this time he's stuck with a Cumani horse with a lousy draw, Bezique who has been off the track for well over a year. Ten of the last 15 winners over a mile here at York have been drawn low so there would appear to be a distinct advantage for the 1-6 stalls. Mijhaar is a very skinny price for a horse who has been off for almost a year with an unknown injury and also at a trip that's probably 2f on the short side. Fury is becoming expensive to follow but does seem to shine in larger fields and I think a place may be the best scenario for him but certainly I prefer him to Mijhaar. Justonefortheroad may find himself outclassed here and he's 4lb higher than he was last year - although he has a much better draw this time - he has possibilities! Stevie Thunder is interesting at a big price with Ryan Clark up (six rides, two wins and one 2nd) and although this is ambitious, he could manage a place. Trade Storm is not ticking my distance win box but the Buick booking catches the eye and he made a winning reappearance last April after some time off. He's been raced over 6f, 7f, 9f, 10f but all his best placed efforts have been on left handed flat, galloping tracks and although he could do with it drying out some more, I like him.
- Trade Storm UP (7th)
- Fury 1st (3/1)
- Stevie Thunder NR
15:35 Pearl Secret is the hot favourite and has the form on paper to warrant all respect. I have misgivings about the current stable form though - 18 runners without a winner in the past fortnight. Not just without a winner but without a 2nd and the two 3rds they've managed were each over a length behind. Not an odds on sort of punt for me this! Es Que Love is a puzzle running at 5f when all of his best results have been at 6f on a testing track. I can only think that he'll shoot from the stalls like a bat out of hell and attempt to make all but will he have the speed? Ponty Acclaim may have something to say about it and was last seen winning a group 3 in October. The lack of a recent run is a concern but 10/1 is an each price to take a chance with.
- Ponty Acclaim 2nd (14/1)
- Es Que Love UP (4th)
16:10 A 'potential' race or rather a race that has to be evaluated on the possibilities and potential of each runner......pin please! Only three of these have ever been on a racecourse before so eleven of them really could be anything and one has to look at the trainers' success with complete beginners, their breeding, sale price, entries and even owner. The draw could be a factor if the runners can be certain to gallop in a straight line and a high stall number (9-14) would appear to have the advantage. Hannon had two 2yo debutante winners at Bath yesterday and runs Dust Whirl - one of the three here with race experience. Dust Whirl comes out of stall 11 which is a positive and he holds a handful of entries for some decent races. He won't be the most expensive horse on the Knavesmire track at just gone 4pm - that will be the as-yet-unraced Skytrain trained by Mark Johnston, one of of his two runners and apparently his first string on jockey bookings. He would look to need further that 6f on breeding however. The other runner of interest is Funk Soul Brother trained by Charles Hills who isn't particularly noted for his juveniles (although he has had a 2yo winner these past few weeks) and he's bred for this trip and also bred to do well as a 2yo so probably has the most potential of the débutantes to my mind. Unless they have been disastrous on debut, then I think experience on the racetrack is all important so:
- Dust Whirl UP (13th)
- Funk Soul Brother 1st (8/1)
16:45 The marathon! It ought to be renamed the Kayf Aramis race since he's won it three times before and is back again this year for another try.
Dark Ranger and Hollins are also previous winners back for another try but I would suggest only Dark Ranger has a realistic chance this year. All but one previous winners have had a spin at least once over hurdles (Graham Lee might be the man to have up top for this?), none have been over the age of 7 nor carried more than 9-6 and none have won from a middle draw so if you were guided by stats alone then you'd be looking at Alsahil, Cloudy Spirit and Sohcahtoa. Stats are just a guide though so I've widened the net but left these three in the mix and it will be interesting to see how they do. Cloudy Spirit won an 18f at Pontefract last month off just a 1lb lower (same jockey) so looks to have a fighting chance.
Secret Tune is an interesting runner, having won on the flat over 17f this year at Doncaster (heavy) but he is lumbered with one of the top weights.
Micky Hammond has a decent enough record here and runs three: Hollins, Mr Crystal and Alsahil. Of the three, I would suggest Mr Crystal who won the 22f marathon at Pontefract last months (carrying 6lbs more) would look to have the best chance but Alsahil is also in with a shout if his stamina holds out. Cape Tribulation would be of more interest with a few less pounds and I think is set to struggle.
Back to Dark Ranger and he is Eddie Ahern’s only ride of the day – the three times they have partnered up has resulted in a win, a 2nd and a UP. He’s has a very different prep this year – no hurdling and just a couple of 2 mile races at Kempton this year and will arrive fresher. I’m sure this race will have been targeted and for this reason he tops my list.
- Dark Ranger 2nd (8/1)
- Cloudy Spirit 1st (13/2)
- Secret Tune UP (13th)
Oh yes! The Funk Soul Brother
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