Dante's Final Inferno Day 3 (18 May)

I felt sure that I could rearrange the words, Dante, Inferno and Bonfire into something relative and witty but it wasn't happening!

If I was Frankie Dettori then I may have had a little moment of 'Smuggy McSmug from Smugshire' ness when Mandaean, who Godolphin chose Barzalona over Frankie to ride in the Dante yesterday came last but one!

Yesterday's blog results weren't too shabby so I'll try to revisit the laterally thought-out selection process that seemed to work quite well.  One important point to remember at 3pm tomorrow is low draws produce almost 70% of the winners in mile races at York!  


Now let's see if we can extract some loot from the bookies 

13:30  Baileys' Jubilee is red hot odds on favourite for this and ought to win readily.  The only possible negatives I can find are that she may not like racing in this direction (both wins on right handed but never tried left) and she is starting in the middle of the track which isn't the best!  Only one other runner here has even contested a class 3 race never mind won one and the manner in which she did that in April (by 8 lengths) ought to make here a pretty safe option but a 2yo filly at odds on isn't something that I'll be risking my house on so I've scoured for an value each way alternative.  Ingleby Royale won on her first ever appearance on a racecourse, beating Ceiling Kitty into fourth place (who has since gone on to frank the form with a win ) and with Richard Fahey's record in 2yo races here, she would seem a decent enough price to take an each way chance with (we'll gloss over the fact that she cost only 800 guineas!).

• Bailey's Jubilee UP (6th)
• Ingleby Royale  UP (5th)

14:00  John Gosden stand a good chance of continuing his smash and grab here (3/4 at this meeting so far) with Caucus who has a nice draw, no problem with the distance and has had a nice prep run at the start of the month.  He only had one run last season (May) after mixing in much more exalted group company as a 3yo and this will be his second run this season.  Something must have been amiss but his close third on reappearance was very reassuring.  Sadeek's Song has also been mixing in group company but not as successfully (27 length last on reappearance in a Gr 2) and this is more realistic but any hint of rain could spoil his chances.  Spifer would be more of interest if Cumani had Fallon up here to ride him instead of at Newmarket on board stable mates.  Deauville Flyer has got back to winning ways just recently winning at Pontefract after a 2 year absence from the winners enclosure.  He might just need to come down a pound or two before winning though.   Kinyras could be very interesting at a big price with Silvestre De Sousa riding and feather weight.  Not too many trainers are going to be able to improve a horse that's come from Stoute but he has had a prep race and may get amongst the places and I do like Easterbys and big handicap fields.....

• Caucus  UP (12th)
• Kinyras  UP (15th)

14:30  The biggest priced runner to have won this over the past ten years was just 9/1 so it's no use trying to scour the card looking for a double figure value horse.  This has immediately knocked the list of possible winners down to five and if you take into consideration the fact that over 14f mid to high drawn runners do best in this race then that woudl narrow down even further to two, Red Cadeaux and Be Fabulous.  Now Be Fabulous is going for a four-timer but her last three wins (one was a group 1) were all against her own sex and this is going to be an awful lot tougher and she has a penalty meaning she's carrying more weight than the rest of the field.  The Red Cadeaux stable isn't firing at all just now (0/17) although for stats ticking purposes, he is top of the list!    Times Up has never won first time back after a break but there is money for him so you have to assume he's been working well at home. Arctic Cosmos ran so badly as not to be true last time out and although the soft ground was blamed, quality horses don't do that badly on unsuitable ground (and now do decent trainers send them out on it) so I'm not falling for that and I cannot back him this time even though he is the Gosden/Buick dream team runner.  Harris Tweed is a favourite of mine who has won for me in the past so it's hard to be objective (he is just great though!) - however, he comes top of my tissue/sheet.  He's a Haggas family project (bred by, owned by, trained by) and although he's appreciate a drop of rain, he has won on good/firm a couple of times in the past and the trip and track are no problem plus the Haggas stable are firing them out just now.  

• Harris Tweed 3rd  (9/4f)
• Red Cadeaux  1st (4/1)

15:00  Now this is one of the above mentioned mile races where the low draw is a big plus (11 of the last 16 winners).  We would have to hope that Hello Glory has strengthened up over the winter to get this trip as breeding isn't conclusive and she weakened tamely over 6f last time seen in September - but then that was the Gr1 Cheveley Park Stakes so I'll give her the benefit of the doubt!  Electrelane is a Dubawi filly so connections will probably be hoping for rain - which they may well get.  She has had a pipe opener (third in a group race) and looked as thought this extra furlong should suit.  Tactfully is highly likely to be outclassed here - and that's not something you'll hear too often about a Godolphin runner. However, she is proven over a mile and wasn't totally disgraced on her seasonal debut at Kempton (4th behind Laugh Out Loud who had had the benefit of a run this season already).  The rest have stinky draws...oooo err matron!

• Hello Glory 3rd  (13/2)
• Electrelane 2nd  (8/1)

15:35   Not much in the way of stats to go off as this has only run five times previously.  No favourite has ever won and an Easterby has won it three times - Michael twice and Tim once!  The draw bias isn’t too important as long as it’s not in the middle (9-12) which doesn’t look good for the hot favourite Tioman Pearl drawn 9!  There may be 20 runners but the field can soon be whittled down as a fair few are really not up to this! 

Starting with the Easterby runners, Tim has Fayr Fall and Nearly A Gift entered - with jockey bookings suggesting that Nearly A Gift is first string,  while Michael runs Towbee (drawn 10 and with a 6lb penalty).  Nearly A Gift runs well on good and has been seen contesting much higher class races than this and over further.  If he can away well (a challenge from stall 19?) then he is speedy enough to get to the front and stay there.  Towbee has never raced in this class before and to do so with a penalty from a poor draw is going to be a step too far in my opinion. 

Annie Beach comes out top of my tissue/sheet but I’d have liked to have seen her with a run under her belt already this year – particularly as the stable (1/24) aren’t exactly knocking out winners right now.  Wicked Wench may be drawn 12 but has been one of my blog naps in the past and thus has to be shortlisted – particularly as she last ran in a class 2 race and comes from a shrewd yard.  Of the fillies running,  she is top of my list and it would be nice to see her defy my doomy draw predictions.   Chooseday is interesting but would be more so I think at 6f+.  Master Bond jumped out at me but all indications are that he will prefer some cut in the ground but if he goes on good (two tries on good and good/firm were fails) then he’d be my pick.  Tioman Pearl, apart from his nasty draw may also prefer some juice.  One win in a class 5 at Windsor (how much more different can a track be to York?) does not a favourite make (in my eyes anyhow) but he is worthy of respect so has a mention!  Finally Lupin Pooter has been backed this morning and with only one run which he won, could be anything …but apparently he may be quite good! 

• Nearly A Gift  UP (8th)
• Master Bond  UP (18th)
• Wicked Wench  UP (10th)

16:10  Well all I can say is that with it’s name Sandusky is going to win!  Seriously though, a mid to high draw is important and bin Suroor has trained the winner (and Frankie ridden) three times in the past five years so that’s two boxes ticked straight away.     Interestingly, apart from last year’s ‘blip’ all the winners have had an RPR (Racing Post Rating) of between 105-109 which would narrow down this field of 20 to just 4:  Sandusky, Media Hype, Classic  Colori and Pendragon.  Throw in the stat that the last five winners (and 7 of the last 10) have been 4yo then we have a shortlist of one – Sandusky.  Simples!  He also tops my tissue/sheet.  However, just to show willing, I have looked at the other runners and here are my thoughts.

The above mentioned Classic  Colori has won first time out but wouldn’t appear to have the stamina for this trip – although one positive is that he’s dropping down in class.  Barren Brook has the coffin draw and is likely to get stuck on the rail.  Jaaryah is lightly raced and better than her last showing in a listed contest where she got bumped around and has possibilities in her first handicap.  Media Hype seems to tick all the boxes with winning form in a big field and the stable in form – a big threat.  Pendragon was last seen coming home 4^th in a class 6 claimer at Wolves….but Brian Ellison almost has him back down to his last winning mark and connections have been known to land a touch in the past!!  (‘Nuff said).  Shamdarley is very interesting but drawn low.  He’s had his prep run and has the course, distance and going form but may just be a tad high in the weights. 

• Sandusky  UP  (14th)
• Media Hype 1st (6/1)
• Jaaryah   UP  (15th)

16:45  I guess one advantage of being late with this final race is that the 14:00 at the same distance has produced the winner and two places from low to mid draws with the stands being in the centre of the track.  I have taken the hint!!  I have shortlisted Blades Lad, Daneking and Key Gold.  Blades Lad (surprisingly given his breeding) looks as though a mile and a half should be within reach having opened his seasons campaign with a win over 10f from the front from start to finish.  He has been raised 3lb for that though and this may be the obstacle.  I’m never sure about the mysterious ‘bounce factor’ (when a horse runs badly shortly after a win first time back from a lengthy layoff) and my theory is this applies more so in lower grade races and if the horse has changed stables during his time out.  However, Blades Lad is a candidate for a bounce! 

Daneking has a Derby entry.  From the Gosden stable, you have to imagine that this isn’t purely pipe dreaming and he has shown something to warrant this (his owners aren’t after some dinner talk with the entry either!)  There will be no doubt about his stamina and the only negative might be the lack of soft in the going description but I doubt this will matter to him.  Key Gold is a proven mile and halfer (Johnston and longer distance runners are a good combination in my book!) and who remains on the same mark as for his win last time out.  He ought to also be a candidate for the bounce but didn’t have quite such a lengthy break and could get into the places or better.

• Daneking 2nd  
• Key Gold  UP (10th)