No one can travel to Ascot by helicopter tomorrow as the airspace is closed due to the Olympics.....oh well, I shall just have to watch on the TV then *sigh*
It was just beginning to look as though the recent black cloud that has been hovering over Middleham is beginning to blow away and the Mark Johnston stable about to hit some form, then they drew a blank on Thursday with 0/6 and Friday with 0/5. However, the treble on Tuesday could well be the precursor to a sunny spell (I may as well continue with these sad weather related references) so I will be reminding myself that the stable's jet stream was out of position when I check the Johnston horses' last run and hopefully pick up some better prices than would normally be the case....for a short while at least! His two Ripon runners (Franny Norton up) look to be his best chances Saturday.
One winner with Prussian at Newmarket (8/1)
One winner with Prussian at Newmarket (8/1)
I loved the quote I read from Aqualung's trainer Ian Williams from the 4th July, "....it was a poor race so he managed to travel well without being challenged, which has helped his suspect breathing" - oh the irony of such a name for a horse who has/had a breathing problem!
Whilst on the subject of trainer quotes, Sheena West describes Alfraamsey as a "poor man's Overturn"
16:35 So on to the King George IV and Queen Elizabeth Stakes which is turning into a fascinating contest. The ground has dried out and is now given as good (good to soft in places).
This reads like a film script:
This reads like a film script:
- St Nicholas Abbey has been heavily backed since noon on Friday (the plot)
- Robin Hood is perfectly drawn in stall 1 for pace making duty (supporting actor)
- Deep Brilliant is the mysterious Japanese Derby winner/raider (ninja warrior) with an impeccable pedigree
- Danedream - the German (Femme Fatale) 2011 L'Arc winner
- John Gosden is double handed with both Nathaniel and Masked Marvel
- Dunaden - the French 2011 (rags to riches) Melbourne Cup winner who cost 1,500 euros
- Fallon has been telling everyone not to underestimate Brown Panther (red herring?)
- ......then there is Sea Moon who I have a soft spot for and about who I am trying very very hard to be objective about!
My Thoughts
Brown Panther is not a group winner, Dunaden has never won off a mark this high and Masked Marvel is the yard's second string so they are off my list. Apart from Brown Panther, the only two C&D winners are Sea Moon and Nathaniel.
Although Nathaniel has won off this mark and won over this distance, he hasn't combined the two before and I have a suspicion that the combination might just be too much although I would expect him to be in the shake up.
St Nicholas Abbey has done his most recent winning on firmer ground and on sharper tracks (Epsom, Churchill Downs, Chester) but he has in the past won on right handed, galloping, testing (Curragh) and also with some give in the ground....back in 2009. Since then, whenever he's tried either he has fallen short. It may be that his style of running just isn't suited here.
Reliable Man isn't (reliable that is) and I would suggest that his peak was at 3yo.
Deep Brilliante is rather an enigma. He's been stabled at Clive Brittain's since leaving quarantine and this trainer thinks he's in good nick. He has won on soft, yielding, good and firm so any ground will suit. He only just held on to win the Japanese Derby and although that course has an uphill finish, I can't be sure it is as testing as Ascot so therein lie my doubts. Very interesting though and I am of the belief that Japanese horses are generally underated!
Although Nathaniel has won off this mark and won over this distance, he hasn't combined the two before and I have a suspicion that the combination might just be too much although I would expect him to be in the shake up.
St Nicholas Abbey has done his most recent winning on firmer ground and on sharper tracks (Epsom, Churchill Downs, Chester) but he has in the past won on right handed, galloping, testing (Curragh) and also with some give in the ground....back in 2009. Since then, whenever he's tried either he has fallen short. It may be that his style of running just isn't suited here.
Reliable Man isn't (reliable that is) and I would suggest that his peak was at 3yo.
Deep Brilliante is rather an enigma. He's been stabled at Clive Brittain's since leaving quarantine and this trainer thinks he's in good nick. He has won on soft, yielding, good and firm so any ground will suit. He only just held on to win the Japanese Derby and although that course has an uphill finish, I can't be sure it is as testing as Ascot so therein lie my doubts. Very interesting though and I am of the belief that Japanese horses are generally underated!
Connections of Sea Moon think that he has improved since his last outing here at Ascot. He will have had to because he is now on his highest ever mark, yet still relatively unexposed for a 4yo and he won his last race in such a manner that I do think he'll take all the beating. It helps that Sir Stoutey has put 12 runners out in the past fortnight and won with 6 of them!
Stats Thoughts
On the stats front, eight of the past ten winners have been aged 4 (the other two were 3yos) which doesn't bode well for St Nicholas Abbey, Dunaden and Deep Brilliante. The highest RPR that any winner has had in the past 10 years is 135 and no mare or filly has won during this time either so Danedream would be off the list on both counts and Nathaniel has an RPR of 136! Six of the past ten winners have been favourites and none have had an SP higher than 13/2....so the stats all neatly point to one horse......Sea Moon
- Sea Moon
- Nathaniel
- Deep Brilliante
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