Friday, 24 August 2012

By Dickens It's Friday Already! (Ebor Day 3)

Not a bad result yesterday and I hope I'm not tempting fate by having another crack at the first race on the card.  Only time for the one though....

14:00 Sky Bet Mobile Stakes 1m 4f Class 2

My shortlist of 3 !

Only two 3yo have won this race in the past 10 years - both were trained by Mark Johnston who runs Fennell Bay today.  Sheikh HamBinMoMak owns Fennell Bay ...just as he owned Whispering Gallery who won three years ago.  SdS takes the ride and he has a decent enough middle draw - though I'm puzzled why Joe Fanning doesn't get the leg up as he's riding for the same owner/trainer combo later here and has a better record with this horse.  Rain holds no fears for him and he has produced his best form winning on soft and good to soft.  Forget that last run on Shergar Cup day when he was ridden by Andreas Suborics - not the most familiar navigator of Ascot I think it's safe to say.  Fennell Bay is however, fairly exposed for a 3yo and has 13 runs under his belt this season alone so without a chance to recharge his batteries this would rate a big negative for me....then again, this is a Mark Johnston trained horse (think Duracell bunnies!)  

Martin Chuzzlewit isn't just the name of a Dickens book (a first edition copy of which I owned which was lost/stolen years ago)  He's also a very very expensive racehorse!  Trained by Sir Michael Stoute who has won this race twice in the past four years and with a liking for some cut in the ground, he appreciated the step up to a mile and half last time out to run into third and remains on the same mark.  Today's performance may depend on what improvement the first time visor has.  Given that Sir Michael doesn't tend to dish out headgear like sweeties (or sugarlumps) then I think it's safe to assume that there will be an improvement.  

Willie Wagtail is sharing the bottom weight with Martin Chuzzlewit and is trained by in-form Ed Walker.  He's another whose last run you can put a line through (he was hampered by a faller) and he did attact a lot of support before the race that day.  He cost less than a tenth of Martin Chuzzlewit (£40k v £420k) and is saddled  with a low draw which isn't great over this distance but since he's generally held up (and with Jamie Spencer riding there's certainly no reason to think this will change anytime soon) then it shouldn't matter at all.  He has won on good to soft but will need some luck in running here and I can't help thinking that he may not measure up.
  • Martin Chuzzlewit 2nd 
  • Fennell Bay e/w UP (dreadful start!)
....and a saver on Willie Wagtail !  4th




This post didn't look right without a picture so here's one:



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