The Large Fields at Lunchtime Blog

Having had some success with the large field races at York yesterday, I thought I would concentrate on these today and leave the smaller races to Aiden's gang.....by the way, in case you were wondering, Joseph isn't riding at York today because he can't do less than 9st.

13:55

DBS PREMIER YEARLING STAKES (CLASS 2) (2yo)

There are a number of runners here who have been contesting pattern class races running in this but they are mainly drawn on the ‘wrong’ side of the track (low).  Kevin Ryan come mob-handed with five runners and given he has won the past two runnings, you have to give these serious consideration but Tim Easterby won it in 2009 and it’s one of his two runners, Ventura Mist who I’ve opted for.  The move up to 6f worked wonders last time out when he came a very close 2^nd in a listed race and if anything might need further.  So his stamina isn’t in question and even in this large field, we might just see taken straight to the front and stay there but more likely he will come thundering up the left hand side of your screens in the last half furlong!

Win	Ventura Mist
Next Best	Rufford
Each Way	Touch The Clouds

15:05

CLIPPER LOGISTICS STAKES (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+)

This race has been won by a 4 or 5 year old the past ten years and that’s where I started! Favourites don’t have a good record either with only one winner in 10 years but despite this stat, this year’s favourite Queensberry Rules has too much going for him to forsake him just yet. He is trained by William Haggas who has an exceptional 25% (21/83) strike rate at this track and ridden by Johnny Murtagh with an equally impressive record riding here.  The worry would be that he has also only ever won on right handed tracks. 

A new stat to add to the mix at this point is the fact that all winners in the past 10 years have had a RPR of between 103 and 113, so this would appear to lead us to Hot Bed! Hot Bed had only ever won on the all weather at Dundalk but David Wachman isn’t the sort of trainer to send just one horse over for the scenery so we have to assume that he will act on the turf as well and indeed he has two 2^nds on good to firm to his name so he could well go one better.  David O’Meara has the same approach to this race that Kevin Ryan has in the first with 5 runners and of his five, Frog Hollow looks his best chance although Mont Ras could offer the best value.  A mile on good to firm at a left handed galloping track is just his thing.

Win	Hot Bed 3rd
Next Best	Queensberry Rules
Each Way	Mont Ras 1st

16:55

EVENTMASTERS.CO.UK EBF FILLIES´ STAKES (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100)

Nurpur’s past six races in a hood (2-1-2-2-1-1)have been at either 6f or 8f and she has never been unplaced on going given as good to firm so back against her own sex over 7f on good to firm with the hood retained and Ryan Moore booked, ought to see her up there.  However, all of those aforementioned places and wins were in small single figured fields but her (newish) style of running should suit today.

Dutch Rose hasn’t won since taking this a year ago and is up 6lb from that day so I can’t see a repeat performance on the cards and Shesastar beat her albeit by ½ length although the slight weights adjustment this time would seem to give her back control. 

Patrona Ciana is an intriguing runner having joined the O’Meara stable from France for Middleham Park Racing (& partner) just a week ago.  Buick is booked so they must be expecting a decent showing.  So my three final picks are the O’Meara runners – can he get a 1-2-3 ?

Win	Nurpur
Next Best	Dutch Rose 1st
Each Way	Patrona Ciana

By Dickens It's Friday Already! (Ebor Day 3)

Not a bad result yesterday and I hope I'm not tempting fate by having another crack at the first race on the card.  Only time for the one though....

14:00 Sky Bet Mobile Stakes 1m 4f Class 2

My shortlist of 3 !

Only two 3yo have won this race in the past 10 years - both were trained by Mark Johnston who runs Fennell Bay today.  Sheikh HamBinMoMak owns Fennell Bay ...just as he owned Whispering Gallery who won three years ago.  SdS takes the ride and he has a decent enough middle draw - though I'm puzzled why Joe Fanning doesn't get the leg up as he's riding for the same owner/trainer combo later here and has a better record with this horse.  Rain holds no fears for him and he has produced his best form winning on soft and good to soft.  Forget that last run on Shergar Cup day when he was ridden by Andreas Suborics - not the most familiar navigator of Ascot I think it's safe to say.  Fennell Bay is however, fairly exposed for a 3yo and has 13 runs under his belt this season alone so without a chance to recharge his batteries this would rate a big negative for me....then again, this is a Mark Johnston trained horse (think Duracell bunnies!)  

Martin Chuzzlewit isn't just the name of a Dickens book (a first edition copy of which I owned which was lost/stolen years ago)  He's also a very very expensive racehorse!  Trained by Sir Michael Stoute who has won this race twice in the past four years and with a liking for some cut in the ground, he appreciated the step up to a mile and half last time out to run into third and remains on the same mark.  Today's performance may depend on what improvement the first time visor has.  Given that Sir Michael doesn't tend to dish out headgear like sweeties (or sugarlumps) then I think it's safe to assume that there will be an improvement.  

Willie Wagtail is sharing the bottom weight with Martin Chuzzlewit and is trained by in-form Ed Walker.  He's another whose last run you can put a line through (he was hampered by a faller) and he did attact a lot of support before the race that day.  He cost less than a tenth of Martin Chuzzlewit (£40k v £420k) and is saddled  with a low draw which isn't great over this distance but since he's generally held up (and with Jamie Spencer riding there's certainly no reason to think this will change anytime soon) then it shouldn't matter at all.  He has won on good to soft but will need some luck in running here and I can't help thinking that he may not measure up.

• Martin Chuzzlewit 2nd 
• Fennell Bay e/w UP (dreadful start!)

....and a saver on Willie Wagtail !  4th

This post didn't look right without a picture so here's one:

The Middle Blog (Ebor Festival Day 2)

The middle wasn't such a bad place to be drawn at York on the first day of the Ebor meeting despite my eschewing that very same draw in the first race.  As a point of interest, two of the three winners of the large field handicaps (Tax Free and Olympiad) came out of stall 11.  So since the stalls are positioned the same for Thursday, it might pay to keep an eye on Saint Jerome in the 14:00 and Navajo Chief in the 15:05 with claimer of the moment, Michael J M Murphy riding (hubby says this will win in accordance with his Indian/Native American method of selection!!  Navajo Chief was 4th so not too disgraced)

15:05 1 mile Handicap Class 2
I noted that all ten previous winners have been 3 or 4yo - which would remove over half the field so I've decided to give this race some thought and time when perhaps I'd be better with a shiny pin!  
With day to day racing at York (i.e. smaller fields) the low draw rules supreme but I learned my lesson on Wednesday and shan't be giving this quite so much importance.  However, my musing and pondering has led me to a shortlist of three:  Anderiego, Indian Jack and Trade Storm.  

Now given that Fallon has hopped off of the Cumani runner, Indian Jack to ride Anderiego for David O'Meara I think we should take that as a vote of no confidence in the Cumani runner which leaves us with Anderiego and Trade Storm.  

In the world of jockey booking 'swings and roundabouts', I can't for the life of me figure out why Hayley Turner is on the Cumani horse and not the Simcock runner Trade Storm after their rather successful partnership at Arlington - I can only think that this agreement was in place before her short notice deputising for Ryan Moore on I'm A Dreamer.  There really is no stopping David Simcock at the moment with 11 winners from 33 runners this past fortnight so I think it's safe to assume that Trade Storm is going to have come on for his first run in 2 months a fortnight ago at Ascot (2nd).

Jamie Spencer is booked to ride Trade Storm and he has been known to get a tune from a horse once in a while!  (Although he is best known getting his rides stuck in more traffic than the M25 at 5pm on a Friday...but I guess that's the downside of a hold up, pouncing, swooping style of riding when it occasionally it doesn't work out as intended).

However, I think that Anderiego will succeed in his quest for a hat trick at York for the Ebor Racing Club - he loves this track, distance and has won under Fallon and  must surely has been laid out for this race (with an owning syndicate name like that!?).  He's carrying a fair weight here and I reckon will take the beating.  There is 9/1 to be had at the moment but I can't see that price around for too long in the morning!

• Anderiego UP
• Trade Storm e/w  1st (12/1 or BFS 15.5)

and third selection on the shortlist, Indian Jack came.....3rd

PS:  Frankel was his usual imperious self yesterday and Sir Henry was dignified and charming as ever but if I ever hear or read Frankel referred to as "the Usain Bolt of horses" or "Usain Colt" (there IS already a horse by this name) I may scream!  

He is not the Usain Bolt of racehorses.  
He is the Frankel of racehorses.

The Green, Pink and White Blog (Day 1 Ebor Meeting)

Caption not Required !

Let's hope that we see Sir Henry alongside Frankel at York after his recent illness.  Fingers crossed that he's well enough to watch at the course.

I got so excited when looking at the York card for Wednesday to 'selectively' choose which races to look at in more depth that I got no further than the first race......

14:00 Symphony Group Stakes (Handicap) Class 2 5f 
Stats
With only three previous runnings, there isn't a lot in the way of stats to guide.  A 5yo or 6yo carrying between 9-4 and 9-6 and with a two word name is not going to be a very scientific method of attempting to select a winner!  Mister Manannan is the only runner to tick these 3 boxes and (sprint king) trainer Dandy Nichols assures us that his one or two issues have been sorted out and the owners are coming from the Isle Of Man to watch the race so you never know.
Draw/Running
I have discounted any middle drawn runners as this isn't advantageous.  There is a slight bias towards a high draw and even more for a hold up horse drawn high (unsurprisingly). There is plenty of front running speed with high drawn Le Toreador and Fitz Flyer to ensure a good tow for any closers.  I would suggest that Mass Rally is the likely beneficiary of this scenario.  He is turned out in a hood (known in our house as a gimp mask ever since a horse called Bondage was seen wearing one - true!) as well as blinkers to help him get his head in front at the business end and also has big field form.  Any overnight showers to take the sting out of the ground will be a plus as well.  
Obs
When I see Fallon booked for a Mick Easterby runner in a handicap at a big meeting like the Ebor, my senses click onto full alert.  The pair are teaming up with Ancient Cross in this race and although his last few placings (9-10-8-8) don't look earth shattering (two of these races he was hampered), he has at least been running in class 2s and is now back down to his last winning mark for the first time.  

Skybet are paying out on the first five places which means that I'll be each way on:

• Mass Rally  2nd  (needed a longer neck!)
• Ancient Cross  UP
• Mister Manannan  UP (not quite last - there was one behind him)

15:05 Great Voltigeur Stakes Class 1 Group 2 (3yo)

Stats

Only 3 favourites have won in the past 10 runnings but 9 winners have been in the top three of the betting.  Nine from ten winners have been sired by a group 1 winner. This would leave us with Noble Mission (Frankel's baby brother - full brother).

Draw/Running

With only 6 going to post, the draw isn't so important in this race.  At this level, horses tend to be able to run a race in a variety of ways so the fact that all of them except Thought Worthy have apparently performed best when held up should perhaps not be given too much importance.

Thoughts

I am not convinced that Main Sequence (or his '0/14 in 3yo' and '5/76 overall' at York jockey!) are suited to York.
Al Zarooni and Cecil are both double handed here and both are the top trainers (in this race) at the track.   Thomas Chippendale would need a huge step forward so I can't seriously consider him.  Energizer is the mount of Frankie D who is struggling to ride a winner lately (just 2 from his last 41 rides).  This leaves me pondering between Noble Mission who would be a most popular winner and Encke, the Barzalona booked adversary.  These two are so closely matched it's almost impossible to split them. Noble Mission is a group (3) winner who beat Encke on the nod last time out at Goodwood.  Then again Encke has more potential to improve this time.  They both go on good, good to firm or soft.  So at decent(ish) prices, I shall dutch them and put a reverse forecast (how's that for a cop out?) and if they dead heat then I will gloat forever.

• Noble Mission  UP
• Encke  UP

Note to self - if you going to read the race correctly then back the right horse doh!

PS:  Really I want Noble Mission to win....but I was always taught "I want doesn't get" so "please may Noble Mission win, please"?

When the Betfair server sent down on Sunday afternoon (again!), it prompted me to revisit my opened but never used Betdaq account.  A revelation!  Once you get used to the exchange layout it's really quite usable.  For those wanting to put small stakes on, the minimum bet on the exchanges is 0.50p and the best feature of all is that you can watch any race when logged in with a bet on at least one race so put a bet on the last race of the day!

The Vikings, Mongolians, Mad Irishmen and Legends Blog

What a week!  

Hayley added a third grade 1 win to her CV on Saturday with I'm A Dreamer's win at Arlington in the Beverley D. Stakes last Saturday - a ride which Ryan Moore gave up so that he could ride in Europe last weekend.  That will have been a nice payday with the winning horse receiving almost £279K.

Sweet Girl

Snow Fairy won impressively on Sunday at Deauville.  Despite being short of room about half a furlong from home, she showed true game and grit to get her head in front for the G1 Darley Prix Jean Romanet under Ryan Moore (which will have helped sweeten the disappointment of the night before).

Ireland had a 1-2 on Saturday with Donal Fahy winning and Richie Killoran coming second (44 seconds behind)  in the 1000km/7 day Mongol Derby.  The third placed horse was over an hour behind....

Saturday also heard the familiar voice of Derek 'Tommo' Thompson again at Doncaster after his surgery for cancer.  Unfortunately, he was admitted to Addenbrooks with suspected viral meningitis after feeling unwell that same day but is on the mend once more with the help of antibiotics and more chemo.  

But enough of all that past history stuff....the best of the week is yet to come.  

It’s Ebor week!  

I love this meeting and 2012 is particularly special with the appearance of Frankel.  His performance on Wednesday, when he’ll race for the first time over a mile and quarter will determine whether he goes for the Champion Mile or the Champion Stakes at Ascot in October for what will almost certainly be his final appearance on a racecourse in October.  There's a lot of hyped up debate about whether he'll stay but have you seen the distance that it takes Tom Queally to pull him up each time he’s run?  And as for the argument that other greats have been undone at York (Brigadier Gerard was beaten there), it's a different track these days.  Suffice to say, I'm not worried....just as long as Tom doesn't mess up!

Here’s a TV ad that’s been showing on prime time which is amazing given that horseracing isn’t exactly premier league football in terms of mass popularity!!

Michael J M Murphy will be making an appearance at York on the first day riding when riding Van der Art in the 16:50.  He’s a 7lb claimer to have on your side for sure!  His strike rate over the past fortnight has been phenomenal with 12 winners from 26 rides (on Monday evening at the time of writing).  However, he may not have too many more rides at the Ebor Festival as he’ll be vying for rides against the top jocks here and the handicaps which can use his allowance will be a little thinner on the ground.  Keep your eye on any that he gets though.

Historically Kieren Fallon has had a decent record at York (strike rate around the mid teens but not so hot in 2yo races) and he has plenty of bookings lined up though nothing for the big one, the Juddmonte….yet.  He can certainly pull a great ride out of the bag once in a while (Arlington Million on Afsare last Saturday wasn’t too shabby) but I think age is sadly beginning to catch up these days.  If I was an owner, I would be booking Buick– his riding this season has been much more consistent which I’ll put down to his new found maturity at the grand old age of 24 and he has a very decent strike rate around York.

A good source for some enlightening daily jockey and trainer stats can be found on the Totesport site.

They are the RP ones packaged up in a very reader friendly way and well worth bookmarking!

I’ll be getting excited and blogging and reviewing a couple of races a day over the Ebor meeting and as ever, more daily tips will be up at Speedy Equines.

Viking Victories Day 1 - 16 May

The first day of the York Dante meeting and it looks as though we may be in for some good racing on good ground at last!  

Those in touch with (and also those hiding under rocks because there has been no escape) may have noticed the name Brooks in the papers recently.  Rebekah and her "renowned racehorse trainer" (according to the Mail!) husband are a tad peeved at "being turned into scapegoats" apparently and have been venting their anger to all and sundry!  I keep reading and hearing about this here "renowned racehorse trainer" but despite daily form and racecard study, his extensive string of runners has so far eluded me so I thought I would research where he has been running them....Jamaica, Barbados, Mongolia, Iceland?  Nope!  His extensive stable runs to six horses - three of which are owned by himself, T Lacey and the Pudlicote Partnership (could this be himself, wife, David Cameron and Jeremy Clarkson?!) and none of which have ever won more than a couple of hundred in prize money which all rather smacks of giving the little chap something to do!   One of these six horses in training is named Harris (cost a respectable £20K) and holds four entries to various bumpers over the next few days and another (Cavite Gamma £9K) holds an entry into a novice chase at Stratford on Sunday.......now I just need to teach my cat to bark and dance and I shall call myself the winner of Britain's Got Talent!

Back to proper horseracing now and York!  I've put my shortlists below each review/thoughts and will be on each way in most cases...


13:30 I've noted that you need to concentrate on runners drawn mid to high and that have been progressively improving their placings...(e.g. 8-5-3) in 10f races at York and the only one in the field that ticks these two boxes is Area Fifty One - who belongs to that collector of northern races, Dr Marwan Koukash.  I admit to a soft spot for Space War who I saw win his maiden at Newmarket but who sadly had never gone on to fulfil his initial potential and since left John Gosden for Mick Easterby (big handicap race king). I've vowed to keep away from Cumani's runners first time out this season so this removes Kirthill.  The one who appears at the top of my tissue though is Flag Officer and while I have no qualms about selecting a bin Suroor runner coming back to the track after nigh on a year but my misgivings lie with the jockey!  Frankie's flying dismount has been noticeably absent lately ..... but the winners he has ridden have  all been for Godolphin so I am tempted to put my reservations to one side.  However,it should be noted that bin Suroor has said that Flag Officer will improve from the run and that he is also entered into the Jorvik Stakes on Friday so it may be carrying my £££s only if available at an each way price.  One who I think will do well at a price is Right Step.  Alan Jarvis has a good record here at York and Jim Crowley who won on him at Epsom last time out is coming here for the one ride.

• Flag Officer UP (Pulled Up) 4/1 f
• Right Step UP (10th) 9/1
• Area Fifty One  UP (8th) 10/1

14:00  Only two favourites have won this in the past 10 years and they were joint fav and co-fav and only one 7yo (none over this age) has won during this time which bodes not well for Baby Strange.  New Planet looks interesting in that like Right Step in the previous race, he is partnered by the jockey who teamed up with him to win last time out, Tom Queally who takes just the one ride today.  He has course (although this isn't at all important here - it's probably the fairest track in Britain), distance and going form with a good (high) draw too!  The one I like most for this though is Instance who is lightly raced, both trainer and jockey (Noseda/Buick) both have excellent strike rates here and has a good draw to boot.  

• Instance  UP (15th) 14/1
• New Planet  UP (13th) 12/1

14:30  It really is difficult to look beyond Twirl in this but (as for the first) the one glaring stat in this (10f) race is the frequency of an ‘improving position’ horse but the only runner in the field to tick this box is Aniseed - a 40/1 chance whose last run was in a class 5 at Wolverhampton and whose only redeeming feature (that I can find) is William Haggas’s record with 3yo here (4-17) …and her sale price of 60K!  Aniseed’s Oaks (currently 100/1) entry along with her Ribblesdale entry looks optimistic to say the least and her Thirsk maiden entry for next week may be more realistic!  Twirl is a Galileo filly also with an Oaks entry and who seemed to be in need of the extra couple of furlongs when last seen.  The other pair that have warranted any time spent on them are The Fugue who wasn’t totally disgraced in fourth position in the 1000 Guineas and Good Morning Star (no Oaks entry) who is more exposed than most but has proven stamina for the distance and may just fall short of the class required…but you never know with a Johnston runner! Twirl seems value at just a shade under evens.

•      Twirl  2nd 5/6f
•      The Fugue  1st 15/8

….and perhaps 50p each way on Aniseed for the hell (and stats) of it!!

15:00  The money has been steadily flowing towards Hoof It these past few days to such an extent that any value is gone.  He did win on his seasonal reappearance at this meeting last year so we know he can go well fresh BUT HE HAS NEVER WON A GROUP RACE or indeed anything other than a handicap which makes the 4/1 currently on offer look stingy – although this doesn’t mean he won’t win of course (he comes top of my tissue) but he just won’t be carrying my £££s (no value)!  Society Rock on the other hand has won a group 1 and is available at double figures – mainly due to his poor form at the end of last season but I have an inkling that a certain jockey might be hell bent on gaining revenge for being jocked off Hoof It.  It’s been some while since a 3yo has won this race so I’ve discounted Bannock, Bogart and Restiadargent.  Eve Johnson Houghton doesn’t run many of hers at York but when she does, her win rate is 2 from 5 and she runs The Cheka today.  However he’ll have to improve massively again to win from his current mark but it’s not beyond the realms of possibility.  Mayson is very interesting but all his wins have been right handed. 

• Hoof It (but he can win without my £££S) 
• UP (5th) 2/1f
• The Cheka 2nd 9/1
• Society Rock 3rd 8/1

15:30  Tim Easterby has won this race twice in the past 5 years and I do love his capacity for targetting (and winning) big field handicaps at the important meetings – there’s a trainer who knows how to keep his owners happy!  He is fielding Bollin Felix and The Fun Crusher in this race with The Fun Crusher the stable number one…..Bollin Felix hasn’t been seen on a racecourse since May 2011 and is owned by one Mrs Sarah Easterby by the way!  Mika Mica is one of only a handful with recent form but he has a not great draw and would prefer some rain.  Mulaqen is very lightly races and interesting - again, he has a low draw which isn't perfect.  It might be worth noting that the past 5 winners of this race were (very lucky in running and/or with talented jockeys!) hold up horses and the majority from high draws! This had me looking more closely at Eagle Rock, Tartan Gigha The Fun Crusher and Swinging Hawk (who is incidentally part owned by Lee Westwood of Hoof It ownership) and it is the last three who are of most interest at each way prices.  

• The Fun Crusher 
• UP (10th) 4/1f
• Tartan Gigha 
• UP (16th) 33/1
• Swinging Hawk 
• 4th  33/1

...and perhaps 50p each way on Bollin Felix (14th) because I'm intrigued!

16:10  You can never ignore a Hannon 2yo and Citius is a very classy (and expensive) colt but Richard Fahey has a better win ratio with his 2yos here than Hannon does (it surprised me too!) so this adds to the appeal of Tatlisu.  All the runners in this field come with their own jockeys!  That is, the only jockey who has race ridden them previously (in most cases only once) is on board today so they’ll know them and of them all, Paul Hanagan does best with his 2yo rides here…if it seems I’m grasping at straws here then I am – not a lot to go on – so more appeal added to Tatlisu who also happens to come out top of my sheet/tissue.  Citius seems a good price for an each way pop so I’ll be on these two.

• Tatlisu 
• UP (4th) 9/4f
• Citius 
• UP (7th) 7/1

 

16:45  And on to the last cavalry charge of the day!  Over 7f at York, the jockey is more important than at any other distance and the top four in this race (3yo only) are Hughsie (Three Am Tour), Ryan (Intuition), Frank (Parc De Launay) and SDS (Kinloch Castle).  On overall figures (2yo, 3yo, 4yo+) you can add Frankie (Grizzle) and Fallon (Van Der Art) to this list and these are the six I’ll concentrate on (well this race is a lottery so I’ve picked six!).  From this shortlist, I am narrowing down the field further to a low draw (trust me on this!) so this discounts Grizzle.  Three Am Tour had a nice close second just 10 days ago and should be primed, Van Der Art also had a seasonal warm up on ground that would have been softer than ideal and Parc De Launay has been contesting class 2 while giving a hint that the step up may suit so these make my final three!

• Three Am Tour 3rd 8/1
• Van Der Art 2nd 10/1
• Parc De Launay 
• UP (9th) 16/1

Friday’s Selections, York Picks & Results (19 August)

Yesterday they held one of those bookies’ testimonial evenings –  a variety show with  favourites trailing in last having unseated their riders on the way to post, or sitting motionless in the stalls (the horses not jockeys) or managing to get stuck behind a wall of runners (this can take supreme effort and skill in fields of just 6 so you can never accuse anyone of not trying!). Cynical? Me?  Never.......................!!  

Friday’s Five System Selections are:

Sandown

14:40     Pose  UP

York

15:40     Requinto UP

16:50     Shesastar 1^st

16:50     La Zamora UP

Yes, two in the same race and they’re both David Barron runners (this is total coincidence & not system related!) – Shesastar has the most negligible of edges

Salisbury

20:05     Man Of God UP

Good day for the system - only one winner but it turned a profit of +5


You’ll notice that 2yo Requinto is up there as the system pick for the Nunthorpe.  With the withdrawal of Sole Power and Bapak Chinta this leaves Hoof It (currently my daughter’s favourite horse??) the strong favourite.  However, the last time the favourite won in the Nunthorpe was 2003.   More recently than that a 2yo won in 2007 (Kingsgate Native) and an Irish trainer won last year with Sole Power who was the 100/1 shock winner (which seems like yesterday) belonging to a certain Paddy’s mum, Mrs Power. 

Zamora in Spain

Surprising how many horses are named after places...when there's a horse running named Kim Kardashian, Megan Fox or Rihanna - things will be different I promise!

York

14:00 RACING UK ON SKY BET MOBILE STAKES (HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100)

Looking past at the past 9 runnings, there has been a disproportionate number of winners from the middle draw – draw 11 being especially prominent.  Trooping The Colour has the honour this year!

I like Lady Chapparal for this – she’ll love the ground and will be up to the front, finishing strongly.  It’s a jump up in class but (forget the 14f York run) she’s been progressing nicely since she joined George Moore in April.  Talking of the trainer, he’s had 3 wins from 7 wins this past fortnight so all good!

Lady Chapparal  10/1 UP (but Trooping The Colour with that lucky draw was placed at 20/1)

14:30  GIMCRACK STAKES (GROUP 2) (COLTS & GELDINGS) (CLASS 1) (2yo)

I admit I haven’t spent much time looking at this so not many £££s going down here!  Justineo looks a decent sort  - Haggas has an excellent 25% strike rate with 2yo here and as a Montjeu colt he should have no problems with softer going.  Has a decent draw so as good a chance as any! (and I had a dream about a ‘green horse’ last night!!!) #joking

Justineo   6/1 UP

15:05 SKY BET MOBILE STRENSALL STAKES (GROUP 3) (CLASS 1) 1m208y (3yo+) 

I'm very tempted to back Green Destiny here - I dreamt about a green horse last night but I'm not some silly superstitious female so this is no reason at all!  I don't like his draw and to be honest Fallon hasn't been having the best of weeks so far.  GD does have the stamina for the 9f and form on the going but it's debateable whether he has the speed!!  I'll take the safe (?) option and back Dux Scholar who has progressed well, is drawn well and should take this on only his 3rd run of the season. 

Dux Scolar    3/1 UP  (with a saver on Green Destiny  1^st in case I'm psychic!) A new career beckons –move over Mystic Meg& I’ll have all of your horseys too!

15:40 COOLMORE NUNTHORPE STAKES (GROUP 1) (CLASS 1) (2yo+) 5f 

I'm sticking with the system selection Requinto for this.  Hoof It is a great horse but this may be a step too far (and too soon) in my opinion!  David Wachman is not going to bring over just 1 horse for the Ebor festival if he doesn't think that it has an excellent chance of winning.  It's not unheard of for a 2yo to win this (see Kingsgate Native 2007) or an Irish raider to do the same  (last year anyone?).  Requinto receives heaps of weight for his age allowance and although a big step up in class against the big boys, I think he'll prevail!

Requinto     6/1 UP

16:15 MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 2) (2yo) 7f 

I'm not a fan of maidens (s anyone?)  You can look at trainer records, sales prices, entries, gallop reports, jockey bookings and breeding until you’re exhausted but the this means nothing until they’re raced .. and even then there may be an unraced wild card spoil the party.  A few of the runners here have Derby entries and the two I like most are Thomas Chippendale and Athens – both high profile owners, Derby entrants and racing debutants.   Apparently there’s a buzz on course for Thomas Chippendale so if pushed, I’ll go with this one!

Thomas Chippendale  5/1 UP

16:50 E B F PAUL MALONE HALF CENTURY STAKES (FILLIES´ HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100) 7f

I have two system selections in this that I put up last night, La Zamora and Shesastar (see above) so I’m on these.  Satisfyingly they’ve both shortened nicely over the morning.  I should point out that when Navajo Chief won at 25/1 yesterday, my other half was delighted as he (not a betting or form man) likes to pick horses with Cowboy & Indian names!   So if Sioux Rising wins this race, I may have to adopt a different approach to picking winners......

La Zamora   7/1 UP

Shesastar   9/1 1^st