Occasional and intermittant blog with musings, chit chat, reviews for the big meetings and races, gossip, videos, pics and music - all horse racing related
Well today (Monday) the new “7 hits for flat and 8 hits for jumps with no more than 5 in the final furlong” rule.I shall say no more since the press will be full of it and I had my say a few days agoon this blog! ......except listen out for the clunking as the jockeys weigh in (that's the abacus up the sleeve making the noise)
Fallon is in action at Salisbury today and has a 43% strike rate here – pretty damn good by anyone’s reckoning – if this works out then his 7 rides should produce 3 wins and he really needs every one if he’s still to be in with a chance of the jockeys title. His record on 2yo and 3yo here is marginally even better so the maidens are worth a look .....although on the flip side the trainers’ records for 2yo races all stand at a most un-hot and ice cold 0%!
Todays selections are:
Yarmouth
15:15 Soap Wars (12) 2nd
16:20 Bogey Hole (5.2) UP
Salisbury
16:30 Mabait (5.4) UP
17:00 Mini’s Destination (17) UP
17:30 Billy Buttons (5.8) UP
Windsor
16:40 Grumeti(4.2) NR(although
the trainers recent record tempers enthusiasm a bit!)
Not a good day with -5 loss
Australia Bogey Hole - a man-made swimming pool dug from the ocean rocks by convicts in 1820 in Newcastle, New South Wales
In case I forget to mention Dr Finley at Newcastle (17:00) tomorrow 11 October then I’ll mention it now!!
21:10 Zelos Diktator (4.7) UP (you've guessed it...4th)
Although this is the system selection, I have to confess to a liking - reinforced by the trainer's confidence - for Fifty Cents 1st in this race although the draw tempers enthusiasm a tad. I dearly hope this horse is called Fiddy at home!!
With good old Fiddy winning (Fallon had a treble today!) a +0.77 profit
The BHA have announced new and more stringent whip rules due be implemented from the 10 October! In a nutshell, a jockey can 'hit' no more than 7 times during a flat race and 8 times during a jumps race. In both, the whip should not be used more than 5 times in the final furlong. Now, I may have misunderstood but I understand that a jockey is allowed to use the whip one more time in the Grand National than in a 5f sprint.....hmmmmm??? It's the 0.22 'hits' per furlong in 1 race but the 1.4 'hits' per furlong in another that most perplexes! Wouldn't a certain number of 'hits' or percentage of a 'hit' per furlong have been more sensible?
Now the punishments for the jockeys! Excessive use (i.e. more frequent use of the whip than quoted above) have a minimum 5 day ban (previously the minimum possible for this offence was a mere caution). Bans of 3+ days will mean forfeiture of the riding fee and prize money percentage so hitting in excess of the new rules mean no £££s. If a horse hangs and impedes another's progress then what does the jockey do if all 7 or 8 'hits' have been used up and the horse (or more exactly the horse's path) needs correcting? Since this happens more often as not towards the end of a race then it could mean the difference between a win or place. Devil and deep blue sea springs to mind! Owners and trainers will not be penalised unless they are found to have reimbursed a jockey in breach of the rules of any forfeited fees/prize money. There'll be some interesting conflicts of interest then?
There is not truth in the rumour that Tony Culhane has contacted the BHA to ask if air shots count as a whip strike nor of certain jockeys asking that the maximum number of hits be lowered to five or less so that they don't have to change whip hand to continue counting above this number.
to be honest, I don't think I'd be able to keep count with the adrenaline pumping in an important race - I'm sure that some enterprising soul has already come up with a red LED at the end of the whip to light up once the set numbers of 'hit's have been reached.....if they haven't then I should have patented the idea before writing this......
And as a postscript to this outpouring of rantiness, it is very hard to hurt or even mark a horse with the air cushioned whips that are used in racing these days. If I had to have my arm hit with one 7 or 8 times to prove this I would do so without much fear of pain! However, certain sections of the great British public (the same section who complain now that foxes now climb stairs in suburban homes and attack babies because their fear of humans is being eradicated) need to be appeased and I can fully understand why the BHA have to be seen to address this issue.
Now here's a jockey who didn't use his whip at all in the last furlong.....
Yesterday was a so close yet so far day. Salik Tag couldn’t manage the final push in the 17:35 Carlisle and (away from the system) I picked 'The Name Is Don' in the 14:50 Folkstone (3rd at 7/1) but not 'The Name Is Frank' in the 17:00 Bath (1st at 12/1).....what's in a name?.....apparently a large profit. It seems boxing promoters are popular names for racehorses (King and Warren by the way)!
It’s pretty tragic what has happened to Hayley Turner today so close to the end of the season. Broken ankle after blog selection Rose Aurora reared up, dumped her and then landed on her. That is bad luck in bulk and tied up with a ribbon. I’ve understand that a fall for a flat jockey can be a heck of a lot worse than jumps. It seems illogical but a jumps jockey is always prepared for the worse when he/she approaches a fence and has time to roll with the fall. A flat jockey is rarely expecting it and when a fall does come along (far less frequently thankfully), it’s at a faster speed usually resulting in nastier injuries. (Was I the only one who wondered how the on course nurse managed to get close enough to anyone to treat them? Big boned...??)
I hadn’t noticed Welcome Approach was running again yesterday – a day after he ran against his stable mate winner (and blog selection) Almaty Express at Wolves. He won the apprentice race at Bath under Justin Newman.
What a disaster of a day! A day of huge gambles and huge sums gambled on them... ah well, "recover, regroup and recoup"....(I like that - I think I'll use that again - not in hurry hopefully though!)
Salisbury
16:25 Theladyinquestion
(8.4) UP
17:30 Sabotage
(4.4) UP
17:30 Colour
Vision (4.4) UP
Another dutch but both are big enough
to warrant this at the moment (rev forecast as well perhaps)
Redcar
16:50 Master
Nimbus (9.2) UP
Kempton
19:10 Nezami
(7.4) UP
19:40 Planetoid
(3.6) UP
A poor sad dire awful -6 loss today ...but at least the only way is up because it can't get worse unless I choose seven selections for tomorrow!
Dubai Queen would have made this list for the 16:25 at Salisbury if Cumani had been in better form recently. I'm sure I'm not imagining that he's not had the most spectacular season and his 14 day strike rate is only 5%!
and since we've had a running theme of funny racing commentaries this week - here's another!
Yesterday they held one of those bookies’ testimonial evenings – a variety show with favourites trailing in last having unseated their riders on the way to post, or sitting motionless in the stalls (the horses not jockeys) or managing to get stuck behind a wall of runners (this can take supreme effort and skill in fields of just 6 so you can never accuse anyone of not trying!). Cynical? Me? Never.......................!!
Friday’s Five System Selections are:
Sandown
14:40 Pose UP
York
15:40 Requinto UP
16:50 Shesastar 1st
16:50 La Zamora UP
Yes, two in the same race and they’re both David Barron runners (this is total coincidence & not system related!) – Shesastar has the most negligible of edges
Salisbury
20:05 Man Of God UP
Good day for the system - only one winner but it turned aprofit of +5
You’ll notice that 2yo Requinto is up there as the system pick for theNunthorpe. With the withdrawal of Sole Power and Bapak Chinta this leaves Hoof It (currently my daughter’s favourite horse??) the strong favourite. However, the last time the favourite won in the Nunthorpe was 2003. More recently than that a 2yo won in 2007 (Kingsgate Native) and an Irish trainer won last year with Sole Power who was the 100/1 shock winner (which seems like yesterday) belonging to a certain Paddy’s mum, Mrs Power.
Zamora in Spain
Surprising how many horses are named after places...when there's a horse running named Kim Kardashian, Megan Fox or Rihanna - things will be different I promise!
York
14:00 RACING UK ON SKY BET MOBILE STAKES(HANDICAP)(CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100)
Looking past at the past 9 runnings, there has been a disproportionate number of winners from the middle draw – draw 11 being especially prominent. Trooping The Colour has the honour this year!
I like Lady Chapparal for this – she’ll love the ground and will be up to the front, finishing strongly. It’s a jump up in class but (forget the 14f York run) she’s been progressing nicely since she joined George Moore in April. Talking of the trainer, he’s had 3 wins from 7 wins this past fortnight so all good!
Lady Chapparal10/1 UP (but Trooping The Colour with that lucky draw was placed at 20/1)
I admit I haven’t spent much time looking at this so not many £££s going down here! Justineo looks a decent sort - Haggas has an excellent 25% strike rate with 2yo here and as a Montjeu colt he should have no problems with softer going. Has a decent draw so as good a chance as any! (and I had a dream about a ‘green horse’ last night!!!) #joking
Justineo 6/1 UP
15:05 SKY BET MOBILE STRENSALL STAKES (GROUP 3) (CLASS 1) 1m208y (3yo+)
I'm very tempted to back Green Destiny here - I dreamt about a green horse last night but I'm not some silly superstitious female so this is no reason at all! I don't like his draw and to be honest Fallon hasn't been having the best of weeks so far. GD does have the stamina for the 9f and form on the going but it's debateable whether he has the speed!! I'll take the safe (?) option and back Dux Scholar who has progressed well, is drawn well and should take this on only his 3rd run of the season.
Dux Scolar 3/1 UP(with a saver on Green Destiny 1st in case I'm psychic!) A new career beckons –move over Mystic Meg& I’ll have all of your horseys too!
I'm sticking with the system selection Requinto for this. Hoof It is a great horse but this may be a step too far (and too soon) in my opinion! David Wachman is not going to bring over just 1 horse for the Ebor festival if he doesn't think that it has an excellent chance of winning. It's not unheard of for a 2yo to win this (see Kingsgate Native 2007) or an Irish raider to do the same (last year anyone?). Requinto receives heaps of weight for his age allowance and although a big step up in class against the big boys, I think he'll prevail!
Requinto 6/1 UP
16:15 MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 2) (2yo) 7f
I'm not a fan of maidens (s anyone?) You can look at trainer records, sales prices, entries, gallop reports, jockey bookings and breeding until you’re exhausted but the this means nothing until they’re raced .. and even then there may be an unraced wild card spoil the party. A few of the runners here have Derby entries and the two I like most are Thomas Chippendale and Athens – both high profile owners, Derby entrants and racing debutants. Apparently there’s a buzz on course for Thomas Chippendale so if pushed, I’ll go with this one!
Thomas Chippendale 5/1 UP
16:50E B F PAUL MALONE HALF CENTURY STAKES (FILLIES´ HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100) 7f
I have two system selections in this that I put up last night, La Zamora and Shesastar (see above) so I’m on these. Satisfyingly they’ve both shortened nicely over the morning. I should point out that when Navajo Chief won at 25/1 yesterday, my other half was delighted as he (not a betting or form man) likes to pick horses with Cowboy & Indian names! So if Sioux Rising wins this race, I may have to adopt a different approach to picking winners......
William Carson was the only jockey to be seen walking the course before racing at Yarmouth yesterday and he won the first two races...it’s all in the prep! He’s riding two at HQ tomorrow: Shikra in the 15:25 maiden for Eugene Stanford, who is relatively new to training (or to be more exact new to his license) and has only a couple of horses that I can find (the other being The Happy Hammer). William Carson's other ride is White Frost for Barry Hills in the 16:35 – needless to say the latter looks to be the better of his two rides. All I can find out about Eugene Stanford is on this website but he has a quite interesting history: Newmarket Racing Club - Eugene Stanford
William Carson aboard Gala Spirit (fine looking horse!)
As for William Carson - it's scary when even my 21 yo daughter walked past him wearing his silks in the paddock at Doncaster and said "My God! He's a kid!"
Salisbury
16:15 Dance And Dance (7.4)2nd
17:20 Quinsman (6.2) UP
Newmarket
16:35 White Frost (5.9) 1st
Goodwood
18:30 Aldwick Bay (3.6) UP
Not too bad a day with aprofit + 1.9
* I did have a big outsider listed last night (Chepstow 18:20 Cotswold Village) but the it came off the list with the rain but I thought I'd mention this one!
Newmarket 17:45 5f Class 4 3yo+ 0-80
Tyfos is bidding for his hat trick but today is lugging an extra 10lbs up that hill -even taking into account Brian Toomey’s 5lb. Nor has he the experienced jockey that got him home in front the last twice so this is looking a much tougher ask. Estonia would be interesting if this was AW – she’s never placed on turf in four attempts and this is enough to discourage me. I can’t see Whiskey Junction, Star Twilight lasting home whereas Walvis Bay will have no stamina issues and is likely to take on Tyfos for the lead - which could set things up nicely for something coming from off the pace.
Picabo has run only at 6f and 7f to date but 5f around here should be just up her street - she’s also relatively lightly raced and ought to be coming past to the front up the hill. Lucy Wadham is a shrewd trainer who has had 2 winners from here 5 runners the past fortnight and Paul Hanagan (who was on board for her last win) should be able to increase the margin in the jockeys table that Fallon has been worrying about.
Picabo 4/1 1st
Looking through the rest of today's racing, I think I may have spotted something with Aristeia in the 16:50 Salisbury. He has the plum draw and Jimmy Fortune up who has a great record here as does Hannon. The two occasions that he's run over 6f have resulted in seconds. The unknown quantity is the going - he's been targeted at soft ground until today and he may not handle the good/firm he'll encounter here but I'll take a chance that he'll cope! 1st
