Saturday’s Selections & Results – 01 October

I am intending on early Sunday morningness to absorb today's results at Longchamp, attempt to arrive at an accurate going description (any where between good to firm and soft depending on who you listen to), update my draw bias and work out some winner!

PS:  There's some value place odds up for the Arc right now on Betfair......

White Rabbits!!  The start of a lucky new month. 

It was certainly a lucky end to the month yesterday for me when I covered all the low drawn horses that I thought had half a chance in the last race, 5 in total, at Dundalk (1m 4f low drawn winners = 72.73% for future reference!) on and the longest price of all these ridden by Joseph O’Brien won at 49/1 (Betfair).  Celebrations are however NOT the reason the blog is late today – that’s just boring home stuff getting in the way.   

In honour of all things French and ‘Longchamp-like’ I have added a video song by French Chanteuse Patricia Kaas which is just the sort of music you want to be listening to in a French bar on a hot October weekend.  This way, those of us not lucky enough to be in Paris this Arc weekend can pretend:

Today’s ‘dirty dozen’ system selections are:

Redcar

14:50  Jo’Burg 2nd

15:25  Colonial UP

Ascot

15:50  Smarty Socks 2nd 

16:25  Astrophysical Jet  UP

17:00  Dubai Queen UP

Newmarket

17:20  Blanche Dubawi  1st   

Wolverhampton

18:20  Courtland King UP

18:50  Benandonner UP

19:20  Everymanforhimself UP (a Ryan family project this one!)

19:50  Bloodsweatandtears UP (note that Fallon is 3/6 when riding for William Knight who in turn has a 30% strike rate here)

                        20:20  Carcinetto WD

                        20:50  One Of Twins 2nd

Not the best start to the month with a loss of -7.2 and I think perhaps Mr Fallon was knackered by the end of today!!  Onwards and upwards....


I make no apologies for so many Fallon/Wolves selections as they all fit the system criteria.  He has a great book of rides at Wolves tonight where he does well - most with trainers who do also do extremely well there.  Expect a 'push' today for the champions title - make or break time with a total of 12 rides today......


With that I am away to plot the downfall of les fabricants des libres........au revoir x

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Thursday’s Selections & Updates – 01 September

Yesterday was a so close yet so far day.  Salik Tag couldn’t manage the final push in the 17:35 Carlisle and (away from the system) I picked 'The Name Is Don' in the 14:50 Folkstone (3^rd at 7/1) but not 'The Name Is Frank' in the 17:00 Bath (1^st at 12/1).....what's in a name?.....apparently a large profit.  It seems boxing promoters are popular names for racehorses (King and Warren by the way)!    

It’s  pretty tragic what has happened to Hayley Turner today so close to the end of the season.  Broken ankle after blog selection Rose Aurora reared up, dumped her and then landed on her.  That is bad luck in bulk and tied up with a ribbon.  I’ve understand that a fall for a flat jockey can be a heck of a lot worse than jumps.  It seems illogical but a jumps jockey is always prepared for the worse when he/she approaches a fence and has time to roll with the fall.  A flat jockey is rarely expecting it and when a fall does come along (far less frequently thankfully), it’s at a faster speed usually resulting in nastier injuries.  (Was I the only one who wondered how the on course nurse managed to get close enough to anyone to treat them?  Big boned...??) 

I hadn’t noticed Welcome Approach was running again yesterday – a day after he ran against his stable mate winner (and blog selection) Almaty Express at Wolves.  He won the apprentice race at Bath under Justin Newman. 

What a disaster of a day!  A day of huge gambles and huge sums gambled on them... ah well, "recover, regroup and recoup"....(I like that - I think I'll use that again - not in hurry hopefully though!)

Salisbury

16:25   Theladyinquestion (8.4) UP

17:30   Sabotage (4.4) UP

17:30   Colour Vision (4.4) UP

Another dutch but both are big enough to warrant this at the moment (rev forecast as well perhaps)

Redcar

16:50   Master Nimbus (9.2) UP

Kempton

19:10   Nezami (7.4) UP

19:40   Planetoid (3.6) UP

A poor sad dire awful -6 loss today ...but at least the only way is up because it can't get worse unless I choose seven selections for tomorrow!

Dubai Queen would have made this list for the 16:25 at Salisbury if Cumani had been in better form recently.  I'm sure I'm not imagining that he's not had the most spectacular season and his 14 day strike rate is only 5%!

and since we've had a running theme of funny racing commentaries this week - here's another!

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     56                                   49                            21

Saturday's Selections & Reviews (06 August)

Well just one review for the moment as I plough through the Haydock card for tomorrow - having promised a friend some 'guidance' with his investments.  (Note to self:  Add Investment Consultant to CV).  Although Haydock is my fave racecourse for the viewing, the craic & the people watching, my strike rate for flat racing there isn’t the best of all the UK courses by a long shot – in fact it’s pretty dismal but the fact that my two Haydock selections yesterday both won may be a sign of a sea change.  This is the reason that I’m stone cold sober on a Friday evening over-analysing every hoof print that every runner has ever made!

 Haydock 14:45   Rose Of Lancaster Gr3

This will all be about Sajjhaa, one of the two fillies in contention.  She easily has the measure of Myplacelater having beaten her by 2L from a worse draw at York last month but she has only won against her own sex!  The twice that she took on the boys were earlier in her career – she won her introductory maiden and was unplaced the second occasion.    She is an exceptionally gifted filly but I think there is another better contender here in Simon De Montford – a horse that I followed when he was with Andre Fabre and racing classier company than this in Dubai earlier this year.  LTO there was something obviously amiss and he comes here on the back of a 5 month absence but this is of no concern since he runs well (better?) fresh (he won on reappearance both past two seasons).  He is ridden by Mickael Barzalona (wonderkid) who has won with him on no less than 4 of the 5 times they have teamed up previously.

Simon De Montford 4/1
Looked to be travelling quite comfortably and moving up the field when clipped heels or perhaps was bumped and stumbled, depositing Barzalona on the turf.  MB not a happy bunny and threw his toys goggles at the floor.  Bad luck but it happens!

Today's system selections:

Ascot

14:00     Medicean Man (4.3) 2^nd

Ayr

20:10     Circus Clown (3.3) 1^st

Haydock

15:20     Heavenly Dawn (2.76) 3^rd

Lingfield

17:50     Tislaam (3.5) NON RUNNER

18:50     Psychic’s Dream (7) UP

Redcar

13:55     Maria Medecis (7.8) NON RUNNER

14:55     Roninski  (3.3) 1^st

15:30     Elusive Sue (5.8) UP

Just two winners today (30%) and a loss (boo) of -1.4

Now I have a confession!!  The 'system' has picked Myplacelater for the 14:45  Haydock.  I should  include it on the list above but (a)  it clashes with my review selection and (b) she's been beaten by Sajjhaa on more than one occasion and there's no reason to think she can reverse the form.  So Myplacelater is a system selection but relegated to a footnote...

I spent quite some time going through the Haydock card last night as a friend is visiting the races for the first time ever and has asked me for some winner winner chicken dinners (gulp!).  This is what I came up with:

Haydock Selections:

13:45     O’Gorman UP

14:15     Naqshabban WD & Burj Naher (in case Naq RRs) UP

14:45     Simon De Montford UR

15:20     Heavenly Dawn  3^rd  & Golden Delicious (ew) UP

15:55     Cruise Tothelimit NON RUNNER & Green Park UP

16:30     Mirza 1^st

17:00     Mount Hollow UP

17:35     Norman Orpen UP

I hope at least a couple come in  (don't you just hate it when the pressure's on?)