The Fairytale Derby Blog

I'll be looking for a decent each way bet on these pages - or in other words, any horse other than Australia and who therefore offers a bit of value.  Most bookies are also offering a 'without the favourite' market as well.

I have been studying the weather forecasts as much as I have the form book for these picks and depending on which meteorological pundit you listen to, Epsom could have thunder, lightening, heavy rain, light rain, showers, sunshine or merely a gentle wafting breeze.  One thing is for sure there will be neither snow nor Red Galileo in the winner's enclosure at 4.05pm..... perhaps I shouldn't have said that!  Anyway, I've taken an educated guess that the going is unlikely to be any worse than good to soft but at this level, any horse that their trainer allows to run is going to perform on the going.

The Ballydoyle Contingent

I have also taken an educated guess that the words coming forth from trainers that hail from Tipperary should sometimes be taken with a large pinch of sodium chloride.  It wouldn't be the first time that 'the best horse we have ever had' is beaten by a stablemate.  

Aidan O'Brien has four runners this year - Kingfisher is turning up to ensure a true gallop and Australia, Geoffrey Chaucer and Orchestra are here running on merit.  

Aside from their maidens, it's very rare for a Derby winner to have any digit other than a 1 or an occasional 2 next to it's name - one exception in the past 10 years being Pour Moi. This isn't a good omen for Australia, Kingfisher or Geoffrey Chaucer but is good news for Orchestra, who won at the Chester Vase in May despite looking green but  which at least suggests he'll cope with this track.  He has won on both soft and good which gives him an additional brownie point.  Geoffrey Chaucer wasn't beaten by the going last time out but managed to find more traffic than the M25 on a Friday afternoon (no mean feat in a six horse race!) so maybe that 3 next to his hame can be upgraded - he is certainly a lot better than that result suggests.  

On an altogether different note, how weird must it be for Kieren Fallon to be riding against Joseph O'Brien who was a mere 12 year old when he joined Ballydoyle as stable jockey back in 2005?

The Godolphin Contingent

The boys in blue have three runners today (and a poor record in this race!).  There are two from the Appleby yard and one from Suroor.

This week the press have been full of stories of Charlie Appleby and his apparent mission to humiliate Mickael Barzalona and to a lesser extent, Silvestre De Sousa by employing the services of Kevin Manning (Sudden Move) and James Doyle (Pinzolo) to ride for him here. Doyler rode a double on Friday at Epsom so his confidence should at least be on a high. Of the two Appleby runners, Sudden Move is the one that he stated was his main Derby hope but it's Pinzolo who has the black type.  Neither can be given serious consideration though.

True Story is drawn in stall 1 and the last time that a horse won from this draw was Oath back in 1999.... coincidentally ridden by Kieren Fallon who is riding True Story today.  He won't be suited by any soft in the going description but he's worthy of close consideration and you can be certain that Fallon will be whistling like a banshee while riding like a demon in his attempt to win this - it would certainly make for a perfect ending to a Hollywood film of his life and career!

Northern Dancer - He's the Daddy!  

......of the prolific sire Sadler's Wells who in turn sired Montjeu and Galileo.  Six of the past ten Derby winners have been sired by either Montjeu or Galileo and Northern Dancer has played a part in the production of 13 of the past 20 including all of the last seven. They can all thank Northern Dancer for their go faster genes.  

Montjeu 

RPR
this stands for Racing Post Rating and not Rather Poor Return which is what you'd have got had you backed the 8/13 winner Camelot a couple of years ago.  Unsurprisingly no runner with an RPR of less than 118 has won the Derby.  Rather more surprisingly, no runner with an RPR above 130 has won - which would rule out Australia and Kingston Hill.

Draw

Any other race here at Epsom over a mile and half and the mid to high draw definitely has it.  However, in the Derby any draw bias goes out of the window as low, mid and high drawn runners have a fairly even spread.  

Price
The last time we saw a double figured winner in the Derby was 1998 when Luca Cumani trained High-Rise prevailed at odds of 20/1 - he was the only unbeaten runner in a pretty poor running.  

Horses For Courses

Many of these runners have stretched their legs here at Epsom for a gallop.  All bar one of the Irish winners from the past 20 years have won at Leopardstown before coming here Orchestra and Kingfisher are the only two Irish runners this year that haven't had a Leopardstown win.

Kingston Hill is s runner who, if there's any soft around tomorrow is very much a contender.  He has won his 1 mile races going away so the required stamina is evident but he was disappointing in the 2000 Guineas  on good to firm.  He had a run round Epsom and apparently handled the course.  His odds are currently around 17/2 but expect this to shorten if the rain comes.   

Down to business then!  As I mentioned at the top, I am looking for a value each way, place only or betting w/o the favourite pick since Australia (with his Derby winning sire and Oaks winning dam) is the class act this year and priced accordingly.  As long as the ground stays decent then he will go off a short favourite although I'd have liked to have seen him run (and win!) a 10f race before today.  If he wins then it'll be in the style of Camelot where he just holds on by the skin of his teeth so the value with Australia is likely to be found backing in running when I'm sure he'll hit much higher than his SP.  

Final Verdict :

Geoffrey Chaucer for the sensible logical alternative!
Kingston Hill if the chance-enhancing rain arrives
True Story for the fairytale ending

The Comeback Kings and The Strolling Monster - Ascot Day 2

Both Fallon and Rooney both scored yesterday! Kieren Fallon had his first group 1 win  (and also his first Royal Ascot win) in six years and Wayne Rooney scored for England against the Ukraine on his comeback following a two match suspension and a nine month international goal drought.  Now if Fallon could ride one of Rooney's horses for a win here next year then they've got it sewn up between them!


There was no such worry about scoring for Frankel connections - for whom "comeback" is nothing but a mere word listed under 'C' in the dictionary!  His 11 length decimation of the  rest of the Queen Anne Stakes field yesterday has put to bed once and for all any doubters!  Timeform have now (finally and at last) given him a provisional rating of 147 - the highest ever rating they've bestowed in their 64 year existence.  

Watch the monster out for his stroll in the park below: 

For anyone feeling extremely lucky, the Tote Jackpot is carrying over £88K+ from today's pool to Ascot tomorrow (Wednesday)

14:30  Jersey Stakes

No favourite has won this in the past ten years but then nothing bigger than 20/1 has either.  It would appear that in larger fields a low to mid draw holds the advantage and if this pans out then Reply would look to be pick of the form on that side with a not-too-shabby third in the Irish 2000 guineas bringing him along nicely for this.  The other Ballydoyle runner, Ishvana came 2nd in the Irish 1000 Guineas but is up against the boys here and shouldn't be good enough.  If my take on the draw is way out then Sovereign Debt is interesting as he's shown up here twice in the past and won both times.  This is a step up in class but he won his last race easily enough to suggest he can make the necessary improvement.  He has to be held up so will need some luck in running but he has the right jockey to make this with him!

• Reply UP
• Sovereign Debt (e/w)  UP

Having looked out for the O'Brien sneaky big priced winner, I mentioned it then dismissed it grrrr

15:05  Windsor Forest

Michael Stoute has won this three times past ten years but has no runner in this year's renewal.  James Fanshawe has won twice though (in ten years) and with Kieren Fallon booked and confidence riding high after Tuesday's win then Captivator is a mare to consider at an each way price.  She is relatively lightly raced and the hood that she has on today (aka "gimp mask" in our house) has worked the oracle since it was first tried last year with 4 wins from 8 runs in it (the remainder were 2 x 2nds, 1 x 3rd and 1 x UP).  She'll appreciate the drying ground but this is quite a step up in class and I doubt she'll do better than a place - although it would be nice if she did!  Nahrain is using this as a stepping stone for the rest of the season and holds an entry for the Pretty Polly at the Curragh on 01 July.  She is so classy (2nd in the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf last seen) that winning this wouldn't take too much effort.  She's extremely lightly raced and dropping down to a mile here so we may not see her all out should she get into a battle with Chachamaidee who has been laid out for this race by Sir Henry and would look to have the credentials to take this.  I'll take Chachamaidee with Nahrain for the forecast and an each way on Captivator.

• Chachamaidee 2nd
• Nahrain  UP
• Captivator (e/w)  UP

15:45  Prince Of Wales Stakes
So You Think would be bucking the trend for exclusively 4yo and 5yo winners the past ten years but he is a class horse despite his not quite living up to expectations and has every right to buck the trend right off into the stratosphere.  His defeats came in world class competitions (Dubai World Cup, Breeders Cup Classic, Champion Stakes) and on dirt and polytrack so he has excuses.  You'd never have imagined evens or better on offer for him in this a year ago so I'm backing him to leave the Blighty and the Emerald Isle on a win before returning back down under to grow his mane into dreadlocks and hang on the beach or whatever!  A runner that I'm keen at an (just about) each way price on is Farhh and not just because I like hearing the racecaller having to repeat it!  He's only been on a racetrack three times and won on each occasion.  This isn't so much of a step up as a leap up in class but he beat what opposition he had last time out with supreme authority and he has the help of Frankie for the first time here.  He's a big boy and ought to love it here. 

• So You Think 1st
• Farhh (ew) 3rd

16:25  Royal Hunt Cup
With a field of 30, it's no surprise that past running have thrown up some double figure prices winners with the biggest in recent years being 28/1 Godolphin/Dettori Invisible Man (I'm still struggling as to why ever it went off at such a huge price two years later!).  Again this is a race which the 4yo and 5yo have a virtual stranglehold on (9 of the past 10 winners between them) and after chucking out the mid drawn runners 13-18, these are the ones I've concentrated on.  Anything over 33/1 has been crossed off too leaving a more manageable nine runner list which hopefully contains the winner.  Edinburgh Knight is bang in there with his Ascot form, big field form and form on good and good to soft.  Johnny Murtagh's record here with 20%+ strike rate makes Dimension of interest.  This horse has visited Ascot one and won at Ascot once - over 7f though but this extra furlong shouldn't be a negative.  It's surprising not to see Fallon booked for this ride as he's partnered Dimension for his last 7 races!  He is instead on board Belgian Bill (never ridden before) for George Baker whose stable is in top form presently ...if I was a 5ft something Irishman, I think I'd rather be on Dimension though!   The only other two I think are worth mentioning are Arabian Star who will be at the front and is handily drawn for his style of running and Boom And Bust who is returning after 11 months away from the racetrack.  He has won first time back after a break in the past but never after such a long spell on the sidelines though.  This cavalry charge winner will need so much luck in running that it really is a lottery.  Skybet, PaddyPower and Boylesports are paying first 5 places so with this in mind I shall go each way with:

• Edinburgh Knight (form pick) e/w  UP
• Dimension (jockey pick) e/w  UP
• Arabian Star (gamest horse of the pack pick) e/w  UP
• Belgian Bill (current trainer form pick) e/w  UP

 Won by a 6yo this year wouldn't you know it! 

17:00  Queen Mary Stakes
If the last race was a cavalry charge then this is the baby cavalry dash.  If this was a smaller field then I'd concentrate on the high drawn runners (62%+) but in this instance as long as you aren't in the middle, the draw advantage would appear to be pretty fair.  Again, I've dispensed with the middle 12-16 to kick things off!  Hannons 2yos should never be ignored and with a name like Jubilee Diamond at this year's Royal Ascot, you can only imagine that this race has been the plot all along!  Sadly she is drawn 14 which is going to make life very difficult.  Sharaarah is taking a step back in trip when I would have thought going the other way would have been more obvious. All Fur Coat has made all in her past three races which doesn't necessarily mean that she has to do so today although speed figures give her a good chance of making it if Hayley chooses.  The other in the field with comparative speediness and front running tendencies (if you can saddle her with this label after just one run) is Upward Spiral, drawn the other side (23).  Richard Kingscote is on board the other Dascombe runner, Ceiling Kitty but Johnny Murtagh's 20% trumps Richard's 7% here for me!  The final one I think is worth a mention is Graphic Guest - Mick Channon has very recently hit form and with just three runs under her belt, this horse is already a C&D winner and has beaten The Hairy Rocket.  
Only Ladbrokes are offering 5 places in this race so I've thrown my dart in just three of these:

• Upward Spiral e/w 4th
• All Fur Coat e/w  UP
• Graphic Guest e/w  UP

 Again, mentioned the winner above and discounted it 

17:35  Sandringham Handicap
Pimpernel rather disgraced herself last time out at Newmarket and this is a drop back in class to salvage some of the potential that she showed last year.  If she can drop her head back down as well then she may have a hope of placing at least.  No explanation/reason/excuse was given for her dreadful run but fillies can be temperamental (and seasonal!!) and I'm willing to give her one last each way chance based on last year.  The other filly that caught my eye here is Devotion who will also be better suited back at a mile and in listed rather than group company. These two both hold group 1 entries:  Devotion for the Irish Oaks and Pimpernel for the Coronation Stakes in two days, so if Ballydoyle and Godolphin think they are in that class then I'll follow...

• Devotion  UP
• Pimpernel  UP

Even harder than yesterday (as the actress said to the bishop) so I'll be keeping stakes sensible and hoping for one of those big field/big prices to bring home the bacon!

....finally and inevitably the Daily Wail Fail Mail headlined their website on Tuesday evening with a feature about Ascot and the "fashion police" 

Friday's Selections & Results (& DH) - 21 October

Well, Fallon is off to ride in the Melbourne Cup on the 01 November which means he's away from UK racing for a week and effectively has given up on the Jockey's Championship this year.  A shame because I feel this year is (was?) probably his last realistic shot at it. At present he has "the chance of 2 possible rides".....which horse he rides will be revealed Friday but it certainly won't be Bauer unless he can get 4lb lower than his lightest !!  


Hmmmmmm........I wonder

UK Subs....you have to be old to remember them but also cool (honest!)

or.......

McCririck has written an ill-advised moronic well-paid piece for the Mail on Thursday claiming that racing whips are barbaric and must be banned.  While the rest of the racing world are doing their best to educate and explain to the public that whips do not hurt the horses (Greg Wood from the Guardian even had Jim Crowley whip him on Tuesday to prove this point) this pillock (politely put) has taken his 30 silver coins from the Waily Mail and I'm sure I'm not alone hoping that he never earns another penny from horseracing again.

A quick note about the draw bias at Dundalk over 7f!  The last 18 races have been won by a low draw which is a nice juicy 72%. 



19:35  I shall have an e/w on both Flic Flac at 6/1 and Sunset Beauty at 9/1.  Both will be up with the pace & have good low draws.  Flic Flac likes it here having run 3x and placed 3x - all but one occasion from the worst draw.  


Not at all bad - they both won!  A dead heat WOW!

Today’s selections are:

Fakenham

14:10  Murfreesboro  NR

14:45  Court Red Handed 2^nd

15:20  Mush Mir (1.74 bsp) 1^st

15:55  Get It On 2^nd 

16:30  Chicklemix F

17:05  Reelwill 3^rd

17:40  Hot Head UP

Not such a tasty day with the jumps - loss of -5.26

I've just been looking at the 15:45 at Doncaster and I'd made a note re. Madany - last time she was due to run on the 22 September, I had backed her the previous night at 9/1.  She was a late NR after the price shortened beyond belief!  The low draw isn't the hindrence some may think as she can run held up and Servoca won from stall 4 2 years ago!  22/1 right now.....

Five jockeys began their BHA hearing into alleged corruption yesterday (Thur) - this is being held in secret and likely to continue until 02 November when a verdict will be announced on the finding shortly after.  

Meanwhile there are supposedly two more jockeys about to be 'investigated' for new claims of corruption but the BHA are keeping a lid on it for a short while as there is so much negative publicity surrounding horseracing at present.  More scandal on it's way by drip feed then......

Let's also hope the BHA are able to come up with an announcement to appease the jockeys on Friday - abolition of the last furlong rule (hooray - this has been dropped!) and a lightening of financial penalties should it (and this has been reviewed favourably) or there may not be too much racing next week........... Great to see that the BHA have seen sense and listened to the jockeys and PJA concerns then acted on them - albeit not to the extent that the jockeys wanted.  Hughsie is already on four at Newbury this afternoon......however, the PJA are still balloting jockeys this evening so there may still be a strike next week (eeks)

Ongoing non runners list – these are previous blog selections that were scratched on the day and worth looking out for NTO:

Grumeti

Gala Casino Star

Best One

Captain Dash
Mursfreeboro

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Saturday’s Selections & Results – 01 October

I am intending on early Sunday morningness to absorb today's results at Longchamp, attempt to arrive at an accurate going description (any where between good to firm and soft depending on who you listen to), update my draw bias and work out some winner!

PS:  There's some value place odds up for the Arc right now on Betfair......

White Rabbits!!  The start of a lucky new month. 

It was certainly a lucky end to the month yesterday for me when I covered all the low drawn horses that I thought had half a chance in the last race, 5 in total, at Dundalk (1m 4f low drawn winners = 72.73% for future reference!) on and the longest price of all these ridden by Joseph O’Brien won at 49/1 (Betfair).  Celebrations are however NOT the reason the blog is late today – that’s just boring home stuff getting in the way.   

In honour of all things French and ‘Longchamp-like’ I have added a video song by French Chanteuse Patricia Kaas which is just the sort of music you want to be listening to in a French bar on a hot October weekend.  This way, those of us not lucky enough to be in Paris this Arc weekend can pretend:

Today’s ‘dirty dozen’ system selections are:

Redcar

14:50  Jo’Burg 2nd

15:25  Colonial UP

Ascot

15:50  Smarty Socks 2nd 

16:25  Astrophysical Jet  UP

17:00  Dubai Queen UP

Newmarket

17:20  Blanche Dubawi  1st   

Wolverhampton

18:20  Courtland King UP

18:50  Benandonner UP

19:20  Everymanforhimself UP (a Ryan family project this one!)

19:50  Bloodsweatandtears UP (note that Fallon is 3/6 when riding for William Knight who in turn has a 30% strike rate here)

                        20:20  Carcinetto WD

                        20:50  One Of Twins 2nd

Not the best start to the month with a loss of -7.2 and I think perhaps Mr Fallon was knackered by the end of today!!  Onwards and upwards....


I make no apologies for so many Fallon/Wolves selections as they all fit the system criteria.  He has a great book of rides at Wolves tonight where he does well - most with trainers who do also do extremely well there.  Expect a 'push' today for the champions title - make or break time with a total of 12 rides today......


With that I am away to plot the downfall of les fabricants des libres........au revoir x

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Wednesday’s Selections & Updates – 14 September

Despite watering on Tuesday morning and then showers and a heavy heavy downpour at around 2pm, Yarmouth did no more that revise the initial description slightly from good to firm to good (good to soft in places).  After the first race, three jockeys declared (1) “soft”, (2) “they’re getting into it” and (3)“in half an hour the ground will be on the easy side”.  It stayed good (good to soft in places).  Coupled with the strong side wind, it’s a miracle that any punter was able to call a winner there at all.  I sometimes wonder if the Clerk of some Courses just sends his (or her) dog outside then has a quick look to see if its paws are wet on its return.   "Wet paws Fido?  Must be soft then!"  If so, then the Yarmouth CofC dog must be very well trained and wipes it’s feet on it's way back in!

Martin Dwyer rode a four timer at Ffos Las on Sunday and then a treble at Kempton on Monday.  This appears to have gone pretty much unnoticed and Martin tweeted yesterday (Tues) that RP had barely mentioned it either – all they were about was Fallon’s single win!  To be honest I thought it was all about football in today's RP but still, you have to feel for the guy after such an achievement warrant's barely a mention in the press.  He had another win today so that's 8 in 3 days!   

This vid interview from Love The Races last October is great fun - I love some of his answers!

System selections for Wednesday are:

Beverley

14:35   Forevers Girl (12) UP

15:45   Greyfriars Drummer (16.5) Wrong Johnston horse!  Bells O Peover won - a former blog selection!

Yarmouth

17:00   Top Diktat (4.5) 3rd 

Kempton

20:10   Desert Icon (4.6) 3rd

20:40   Secret Edge (4) 3rd but UP

A bout of thirditis today and down -5

There’s another race tomorrow called the Kieren Fallon Writes For The Weekender at Kempton 20:10.  If he’s lucky then the race’s namesake might actually get to ride in this one (last time his ride was a non runner)!  He's aboard Steelcut for David Evans but this isn't my system selection (see above!) Steelcut finished unplaced 

Sandown 14:20 September Nursery 5f, Class 5 2yo

5f races around Sandown have a very marked draw bias towards those drawn low.  At this stage of the year, most 2yos have had enough runs that this will make a difference (i.e. they aren’t running green zig zags along this straight track!). 

Roy’s Legacy is chasing a hat trick from a low draw and travelling 158 miles in pursuit of it.  Robbie Fitzpatrick who won both times on him is still aboard but so is a 6lb penalty.  His previous two wins were at Kempton and this is a very different challenge.  My feeling is the extra weight, turf and stiff track could combine to deny him but he won is such style LTO (improving considerably from his first win) that it would be foolish to discount a bold bid.

Worth is another who’s only win has been at Kempton although he has placed on turf.  Partnered by Martin Dwyer who rode him for that win, he put on a poor show LTO at Warwick (albeit from a lousy middle draw).

Dark Ages is yet another runner who is ridden by the only jockey to have ever won on him (Adam Kirby) but the stables current form is enough for me to put a line through him (13 runners / 0 wins)

Invincible Dream has the help of a decent jockey in Kieren Fallon and also the plum rail draw.  He ran a dreadful race LTO but did have to cover a few extra yards when his jockey took him to the outside and he then faded quickly about a furlong out - so the drop to 5f (albeit a stiff 5f) might be a good move.  Again, the stable isn’t exactly firing right now and he looks as though he is as high in the weights as he wants to be.

HOWEVER, the other three mentioned are likely to vie for the lead and being drawn close together, may set this up for Invincible Dream to pick up the spoils (or at least place) at a big price if Fallon can get the fractions spot on.

Roy’s Legacy             win UP Something went badly wrong here - too bad to be true

Invincible Dream       each way Badly hampered (as were quite a few) leaving the stalls - no chance but watch out nto!

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