Let’s see if we can do a
Frankie this week at Ascot…..that is finding all the winners in one day, not the
other (although I'm sure there’ll be plenty of city bankers
there doing that!)
14:30 QUEEN
ANNE STAKES Class 1 Group 1 (4yo+)
Royal Ascot couldn’t open
with a better or bigger star attraction than Kentucky Derby and Dubai World Cup
winner Animal Kingdom. Trainer Graham Motion (himself hailing from Cambridge like yours truly!) has stated that
they are hoping the ground stays good or
firmer.
This star has won on tapeta, firm turf, dirt
and polytrack and could probably win if you asked him to race around Saturn’s
rings! John Velazquez comes over for the ride having ridden his 5000th winner just last Friday.
Paddy Power are offering
win stakes back on any other bet if Animal Kingdom wins this opening
race….and the clue to their apparent madness lies in those two words “opening
race” and the fact that many punters will keep their winnings in the account to invest on later races.
Anyway, back to the science bit:
The winner of this is
highly likely to be aged 4 or 5 and with a price no bigger than 12/1. These two factors alone narrow the field down
to just four runners: Animal Kingdom,
Elusive Kate, Declaration of War and Trade Storm.
The middle draw over the
straight mile is a slight disadvantage for Declaration
of War but more significantly, his last appearance would lead me to believe
that either (a) he needs juice in the ground or (b) group 1's are a step too far.
Trade
Storm would need the ground to
have firm in the description to show his best and in six attempts at a group
one, has never even placed in one.
Elusive
Kate has a couple of group one wins to her
name but these have been against her own sex (let’s face it, she’s no Goldikova!). She’ll find this tough but Will Buick has
chosen her over Gregorian and she may be value for a money back each way bet (money back on the win part only).
Which brings us back to Animal
Kingdom!
He drops back to a mile here but this is Ascot with its testing mile meaning
a horse has to get every yard. He arrived
in the country a few weeks ago and has had a gallop on the course (under
Velazquez) so barring a torrential rainfall overnight, he should have no
excuses and the evens on offer seems more than fair.
- Animal Kingdom L
- Elusive Kate L
15:05 KING´S
STAND STAKES Group 1 CLASS 1 (3yo+)
The high draw usually rules
over 5f here but with such a large field this may not be the case. If the field sticks together and races down
the centre then chances are than a low draw will prevail but if they do split
into two groups then a high draw should be an advantage.
So runners drawn 9-11 and
horses older than 7yo are off my list, as is anything price bigger than 25/1 (surprisingly in such large field races – you’d
expect a huge priced winner once in a while). This leaves every runner beginning with a ‘S’
except Stepper Point plus Reckless Abandon (total of 6).
Overseas raiders have a great record in this
with seven winners from the past ten runnings.
Of the six remaining, we should be looking at Shamexpress and Shea Shea then. Shamexpress turned in a
career best last time out when winning the Newmarket Group 1 at Flemington (previous Aussie winners of this race tned to
have won this) but Shea Shea is
a class apart and should be doing his best work in the final furlong.
- Shea Shea 2nd
- Shamexpress L
15:45 ST
JAMES´S PALACE STAKES Class 1 Group 1 (3yo)
You would have to think
this is between Dawn Approach, Toronado and Magician. A high or mid draw is a definite advantage on
the round mile and all three benefit from this.
This has been a bookie bashers race in the past with 7 of the past 11 winners
going to the favourite.
Dawn
Approach has some recovery work
to do after his Derby outing but Kevin Manning went easy on him in the final
couple of furlongs and Jim Bolger certainly wouldn’t be running him here unless
he was very sure of his wellbeing. Ascot
is the polar opposite of Epsom (right
handed, testing galloping versus left handed sharp and undulating) and Dawn
Approach has won here before so he looks to have a favourite’s chance.
Magician won the Irish 2000 Guineas in such style though that
you have to think Ascot will suit him down to the ground (be it heavy, soft, good to firm) .
Aiden O’Brien has an excellent record in this and Magician must surely
be fighting it out with DA at the business end.
Toronado is on a recovery mission after he appeared to have
breathing problems at Newmarket in the 2000 Guineas – emptying as fast as Paddy
Power’s satchel will hopefully have done at around 14:32 earlier today! It may just have been too much too soon 16
days after his previous race and Richard Hannon is keeping the faith (Canford Cliffs anyone?) but it’s still
hard to trust he’ll be able to serve up a race to Dawn Approach or
Magician.
- Dawn Approach 1st at 5/4
- Magician L
or maybe:
16:25 COVENTRY
STAKES Class 1 Group 2 (2yo)
This is another race
which favours the favourite! 8 of the past 11 winners have gone off favourite
or joint favourite. I would have been
happier if Stubbs hadn’t been drawn in stall 1 though but if he’s lucky and
Joseph has his thinking head on, he should win this.
At a far bigger price and
perhaps worth a place or each way bet is Jallota who has a kinder draw and cost
a fair bit more than his stable mate Riverboat Springs did.
17:00 ASCOT
STAKES Class 2 (4yo+)
Four and five year olds
do very well in this and this is the one race where the winner is quite likely
to be in double figures and come from a jumps yard (unsurprisingly given the 2½ miles). Well Sharp is my preferred pin stick and seems to go on any ground and
looked to be a thorough stayer when hosing up at York last month.
Jane Chapple-Hyam has won this race a few
years back and runs Apache who joined the stable from Ballydoyle in April. He won’t be phased by the cavalry charge, the
going or seemingly the extra distance and could feasibly outrun his odds.
- Well Sharp 1st at 9/1
- Apache L
17:35 WINDSOR
CASTLE STAKES Class 1 Listed
(2yo)
A stiff 5f so a
runner with stamina and 6f form shouldn't be discounted. It may be worth holding all bets for this about
an hour before the race though. Haikbidiac came
a decent enough 3rd to Thunder Strike at Epsom on Derby day so
depending how he runs in the Coventry, we can see how that form pans out. I wouldn’t be too worried about the drop back
to 5f here as the race should set him up nicely for a late charge – Fallon is
up so he’ll have to be lucky and find the gaps (which he can!).
Another to consider is My Catch with Jamie Spencer booked (he has a very good record here on 2yo – 23%). The stable won
this a couple of years ago with Frederick Engels so know what is needed. He is relatively inexperienced though for such
a big field and the occasion might just get to him so I would have liked to see
a bigger price to match.
Finally, it would be
superb to see Der Blaue Reiter win
or at least place for Clive Washbourne.
I met Clive at Wetherby where we shared a lunch table and he kindly
invited us to the paddock (conjuring up extra
O&T badges for me and other half) and to watch his horse Muldoon’s
Picnic win under Jason Maguire. If all
owners were so generous and enthusiastic then horse racing would be even more fun than it already is.
- Haikbidiac
- My Catch
- Der Blaue Reiter
(an unashamedly emotional
bet and if it wins then I won’t need the commentary, radio or TV as I shall
hear the owners cheers from several counties away!)
