The Kingdom of the Royal Ascot Animal Blog

Let’s see if we can do a Frankie this week at Ascot…..that is finding all the winners in one day, not the other (although I'm sure there’ll be plenty of city bankers there doing that!)

14:30  QUEEN ANNE STAKES  Class 1 Group 1 (4yo+)

Royal Ascot couldn’t open with a better or bigger star attraction than Kentucky Derby and Dubai World Cup winner Animal Kingdom.  Trainer Graham Motion (himself hailing from Cambridge like yours truly!) has stated that they are hoping the ground stays good or

firmer.  This star has won on tapeta, firm turf, dirt and polytrack and could probably win if you asked him to race around Saturn’s rings!  John Velazquez comes over for the ride having ridden his 5000^th winner just last Friday.

Paddy Power are offering win stakes back on any other bet if Animal Kingdom wins this opening race….and the clue to their apparent madness lies in those two words “opening race” and the fact that many punters will keep their winnings in the account to invest on later races.

Anyway, back to the science bit:

The winner of this is highly likely to be aged 4 or 5 and with a price no bigger than 12/1.  These two factors alone narrow the field down to just four runners:  Animal Kingdom, Elusive Kate, Declaration of War and Trade Storm. 

The middle draw over the straight mile is a slight disadvantage for Declaration of War but more significantly, his last appearance would lead me to believe that either (a) he needs juice in the ground or (b) group 1's are a step too far. 

Trade Storm would need the ground to have firm in the description to show his best and in six attempts at a group one, has never even placed in one.   

Elusive Kate has a couple of group one wins to her name but these have been against her own sex (let’s face it, she’s no Goldikova!).  She’ll find this tough but Will Buick has chosen her over Gregorian and she may be value for a money back each way bet (money back on the win part only).

Which brings us back to Animal Kingdom!  He drops back to a mile here but this is Ascot with its testing mile meaning a horse has to get every yard.  He arrived in the country a few weeks ago and has had a gallop on the course (under Velazquez) so barring a torrential rainfall overnight, he should have no excuses and the evens on offer seems more than fair.

• Animal Kingdom L
• Elusive Kate L

15:05  KING´S STAND STAKES Group 1 CLASS 1 (3yo+)

The high draw usually rules over 5f here but with such a large field this may not be the case.  If the field sticks together and races down the centre then chances are than a low draw will prevail but if they do split into two groups then a high draw should be an advantage.

So runners drawn 9-11 and horses older than 7yo are off my list, as is anything price bigger than 25/1 (surprisingly in such large field races – you’d expect a huge priced winner once in a while).  This leaves every runner beginning with a ‘S’ except Stepper Point plus Reckless Abandon (total of 6).  

Overseas raiders have a great record in this with seven winners from the past ten runnings.  Of the six remaining, we should be looking at Shamexpress and Shea Shea then. Shamexpress turned in a career best last time out when winning the Newmarket Group 1 at Flemington (previous Aussie winners of this race tned to have won this) but Shea Shea is a class apart and should be doing his best work in the final furlong.

• Shea Shea 2nd
•  Shamexpress L

15:45  ST JAMES´S PALACE STAKES Class 1 Group 1 (3yo)

You would have to think this is between Dawn Approach, Toronado and Magician.  A high or mid draw is a definite advantage on the round mile and all three benefit from this.  This has been a bookie bashers race in the past with 7 of the past 11 winners going to the favourite. 

Dawn Approach has some recovery work to do after his Derby outing but Kevin Manning went easy on him in the final couple of furlongs and Jim Bolger certainly wouldn’t be running him here unless he was very sure of his wellbeing.  Ascot is the polar opposite of Epsom (right handed, testing galloping versus left handed sharp and undulating) and Dawn Approach has won here before so he looks to have a favourite’s chance.

Magician won the Irish 2000 Guineas in such style though that you have to think Ascot will suit him down to the ground (be it heavy, soft, good to firm) .  Aiden O’Brien has an excellent record in this and Magician must surely be fighting it out with DA at the business end.

Toronado is on a recovery mission after he appeared to have breathing problems at Newmarket in the 2000 Guineas – emptying as fast as Paddy Power’s satchel will hopefully have done at around 14:32 earlier today!  It may just have been too much too soon 16 days after his previous race and Richard Hannon is keeping the faith (Canford Cliffs anyone?) but it’s still hard to trust he’ll be able to serve up a race to Dawn Approach or Magician. 

• Dawn Approach 1st at 5/4
•  Magician L

or maybe:

• Magician 
•  Dawn Approach

16:25  COVENTRY STAKES Class 1 Group 2 (2yo)

This is another race which favours the favourite! 8 of the past 11 winners have gone off favourite or joint favourite.  I would have been happier if Stubbs hadn’t been drawn in stall 1 though but if he’s lucky and Joseph has his thinking head on, he should win this. 

At a far bigger price and perhaps worth a place or each way bet is Jallota who has a kinder draw and cost a fair bit more than his stable mate Riverboat Springs did. 

•   Stubbs L
• Jallota L

17:00  ASCOT STAKES Class 2 (4yo+)

Four and five year olds do very well in this and this is the one race where the winner is quite likely to be in double figures and come from a jumps yard (unsurprisingly given the 2½ miles).  Well Sharp is my preferred pin stick and seems to go on any ground and looked to be a thorough stayer when hosing up at York last month.  

Jane Chapple-Hyam has won this race a few years back and runs Apache who joined the stable from Ballydoyle in April.  He won’t be phased by the cavalry charge, the going or seemingly the extra distance and could feasibly outrun his odds.

•  Well Sharp 1st  at 9/1
•   Apache L

17:35  WINDSOR CASTLE STAKES   Class 1 Listed (2yo)

A stiff 5f so a runner with stamina and 6f form shouldn't be discounted.  It may be worth holding all bets for this about an hour before the race though.  Haikbidiac came a decent enough 3^rd to Thunder Strike at Epsom on Derby day so depending how he runs in the Coventry, we can see how that form pans out.  I wouldn’t be too worried about the drop back to 5f here as the race should set him up nicely for a late charge – Fallon is up so he’ll have to be lucky and find the gaps (which he can!).  

Another to consider is My Catch with Jamie Spencer booked (he has a very good record here on 2yo – 23%).  The stable won this a couple of years ago with Frederick Engels so know what is needed.  He is relatively inexperienced though for such a big field and the occasion might just get to him so I would have liked to see a bigger price to match.

Finally, it would be superb to see Der Blaue Reiter win or at least place for Clive Washbourne.  I met Clive at Wetherby where we shared a lunch table and he kindly invited us to the paddock (conjuring up extra O&T badges for me and other half) and to watch his horse Muldoon’s Picnic win under Jason Maguire.  If all owners were so generous and enthusiastic then horse racing would be even more fun than it already is.   

• Haikbidiac
• My Catch
•  Der Blaue Reiter 

(an unashamedly emotional bet and if it wins then I won’t need the commentary, radio or TV as I shall hear the owners cheers from several counties away!)

Have you heard the one about the Irishman, the Frenchman and the Italian?

Frankie Dettori had to wait until Thursday evening to get his license restored by the French racing authorities.  They finally shrugged their approval only for Frankie to get the leg up at Epsom on Friday (at the expense of Kieren Fallon, Neil Callan and Adam Kirby) and finish last, fifth and …..last.  Ouch! 

It was only two years ago that a certain Mr Fallon was in court on the morning of the Derby haplessly arguing to be allowed to renege on his contract to ride Native Khan for Ed Dunlop to leave him free to jump up onto a Ballydoyle runner that afternoon.  As we know, he lost and Fallon hasn’t ridden for Ballydoyle since and Ed Dunlop vowed at the time never to use Fallon again.  As it happens he has done but yesterday he had the ‘pleasure’ (best served cold?) of jocking Fallon off of Beatrice Aurora to make room for Frankie Dettori’s come back ride.  Meanwhile, Neil Callan rode a superb 6/1 winners in the second race at Epsom, Fallon scored a double later at Goodwood and we'll keep fingers crossed for Adam Kirby and his two rides at Epsom on Derby day.

Very circular this divine retribution process!

Now back to the serious business of finding some value in the Derby that isn’t Dawn Approach - whose price shortened even further after his half sister, Talent won the Oaks yesterday.

I think it’s safe to say that we can put a line through Ocean Applause, Mirsaale and Flying The Flag so we’ve swiftly narrowed the field down to nine.  Surprisingly, this race isn’t a given for favourites - with only four winning from the past ten years but you’re not likely to find a winner bigger than 6/1 either.   If we follow this line of logic and allow for some (a lot of?) market movement in the morning then we are left with five:  Dawn Approach, Battle of Marengo, Ruler of the World and at a pinch,  Ocovango and Chopin. 

As previously mentioned, any question mark about Dawn Approach’s stamina has been somewhat assuaged with his sister staying every inch of the mile and a quarter in the Oaks.  He should cope with the undulations having form at Naas and the class is there for all to see in his official rating of 125 – 8lbs higher than the next best.

Chopin has some form on tricky sharp courses back in his native Germany and he won his last race in grand style.  He could surprise and place.  

Aiden O’Brien has five runners this year –one less than four years ago when he threw all the ammunition in his stable at Sea The Stars to no avail.  Of the five, son Joseph is up on Battle of Marengo but his draw in stall 9 isn’t so appealing for one who likes to race prominently.  He’s better on good ground so any soft in the description would be a negative – however, Epsom drains and dries very quickly (being on chalk) so the  likelihood is that  the going will be good by 4pm Saturday afternoon.  Choosing on draw v. running styles alone,  I prefer Ruler of the World of the Ballydoyle quintet.  He handled the track at Chester well enough and there are certainly no stamina issues. 

Ocovango has the perfect draw from which to make all.  Stamina again is not an issue and this French raider gamely won a group 2 last time out…but a front runner hasn’t won the Derby for some time. 

I'll state the rather obvious and agree that it would seem that Dawn Approach is going to be extremely difficult to beat!  If he is then I think it will be Ruler of the World who manages it.

However, we are looking for the value and here’s an interesting angle!

The biggest priced places in the Derby over the past ten years have been 20/1, 25/1, 20/1, 66/1, 25/1, 16/1, 100/1 and 25/1….. eight in total.  All bar two were O’Brien runners and of the six that were, half were setting the pace.  This year the pace setter is likely to be Flying the Flag (who has had this dubious honour before).  At 150/1 at the time of writing and 20/1 for a place on Betfair, it might be worth a small bet and hope he sneaks a place.

So I’ll be on Dawn Approach to win with an each way bet on Ruler of the World (1st) and a place only bet on Flying the Flag.

Plenty has and will be written about Emily Davison who 100 years ago stepped in front of the King’s horse and died in the name of suffrage (there's a maiden running in the 14:35 today named for her!).  The film below is from that day and although it shows the incident, it isn’t graphic and is rather a fascinating look at the Derby back then (no stalls and you could cross the track as soon as the runners has passed). 

The second video is just an excuse to listen to a great song!