Frankie Dettori had to wait until Thursday evening to get his license restored by the French racing authorities. They finally shrugged their approval only for Frankie to get the leg up at Epsom on Friday (at the expense of Kieren Fallon, Neil Callan and Adam Kirby) and finish last, fifth and …..last. Ouch!
It was only two years ago that a certain Mr Fallon was in court on the morning of the Derby haplessly arguing to be allowed to renege on his contract to ride Native Khan for Ed Dunlop to leave him free to jump up onto a Ballydoyle runner that afternoon. As we know, he lost and Fallon hasn’t ridden for Ballydoyle since and Ed Dunlop vowed at the time never to use Fallon again. As it happens he has done but yesterday he had the ‘pleasure’ (best served cold?) of jocking Fallon off of Beatrice Aurora to make room for Frankie Dettori’s come back ride. Meanwhile, Neil Callan rode a superb 6/1 winners in the second race at Epsom, Fallon scored a double later at Goodwood and we'll keep fingers crossed for Adam Kirby and his two rides at Epsom on Derby day.
Very circular this divine retribution process!
Now back to the serious business of finding some value in the Derby that isn’t Dawn Approach - whose price shortened even further after his half sister, Talent won the Oaks yesterday.
I think it’s safe to say that we can put a line through Ocean Applause, Mirsaale and Flying The Flag so we’ve swiftly narrowed the field down to nine. Surprisingly, this race isn’t a given for favourites - with only four winning from the past ten years but you’re not likely to find a winner bigger than 6/1 either. If we follow this line of logic and allow for some (a lot of?) market movement in the morning then we are left with five: Dawn Approach, Battle of Marengo, Ruler of the World and at a pinch, Ocovango and Chopin.
As previously mentioned, any question mark about Dawn Approach’s stamina has been somewhat assuaged with his sister staying every inch of the mile and a quarter in the Oaks. He should cope with the undulations having form at Naas and the class is there for all to see in his official rating of 125 – 8lbs higher than the next best.
Chopin has some form on tricky sharp courses back in his native Germany and he won his last race in grand style. He could surprise and place.
Aiden O’Brien has five runners this year –one less than four years ago when he threw all the ammunition in his stable at Sea The Stars to no avail. Of the five, son Joseph is up on Battle of Marengo but his draw in stall 9 isn’t so appealing for one who likes to race prominently. He’s better on good ground so any soft in the description would be a negative – however, Epsom drains and dries very quickly (being on chalk) so the likelihood is that the going will be good by 4pm Saturday afternoon. Choosing on draw v. running styles alone, I prefer Ruler of the World of the Ballydoyle quintet. He handled the track at Chester well enough and there are certainly no stamina issues.
Ocovango has the perfect draw from which to make all. Stamina again is not an issue and this French raider gamely won a group 2 last time out…but a front runner hasn’t won the Derby for some time.
I'll state the rather obvious and agree that it would seem that Dawn Approach is going to be extremely difficult to beat! If he is then I think it will be Ruler of the World who manages it.
However, we are looking for the value and here’s an interesting angle!
The biggest priced places in the Derby over the past ten years have been 20/1, 25/1, 20/1, 66/1, 25/1, 16/1, 100/1 and 25/1….. eight in total. All bar two were O’Brien runners and of the six that were, half were setting the pace. This year the pace setter is likely to be Flying the Flag (who has had this dubious honour before). At 150/1 at the time of writing and 20/1 for a place on Betfair, it might be worth a small bet and hope he sneaks a place.
So I’ll be on Dawn
Approach to win with an each way bet on Ruler of the World (1st) and a place only bet on Flying the Flag.
Plenty has and will be written about Emily Davison who 100 years ago stepped in front of the King’s horse and died in the name of suffrage (there's a maiden running in the 14:35 today named for her!). The film below is from that day and although it shows the incident, it isn’t graphic and is rather a fascinating look at the Derby back then (no stalls and you could cross the track as soon as the runners has passed).
The second video is just an excuse to listen to a great song!
No comments:
Post a Comment