Tuesday's Selections & Updates - 20 September

Beverley 16:30 Beverley Annual Badgeholders Handicap 1m 100y, Class 5 3yo
It always helps at Beverley to look for a horse with course form but since this is a race for 3yo and barely any have set foot on the track before today, then this isn't the best indication.  Abidhabidubai is the only runner to have placed here before - none have won.
The last part of this course is fairly testing so I'm looking for a horse who is absolutely guaranteed to stay a mile and from what I've seen Lady Sledmore has a big fat question mark over this criteria -  I'm not sure she's crying out for this extended mile!  
A mid to high draw holds the advantage here at this distance (which is a negative for Abidhabidubai and Switchback) so by this reckoning St Oswald has the plum draw.  Breeding would suggest that further is going to suit him over time and ee has De Sousa's help today with the added bonus that he will handle the going if the rain gets in to the ground.  His run at Thirsk LTO was from a poor draw (he still managed 4th) and that race wasn't really run to suit plus he carries a pound less here.  
St Oswald 6/1 3rd

There are always some very odd results on the flat at this time of the year – great odds if you can only find them!  In a nutshell, this seems to be caused by a combination of knackered favourites and more than the usual number of horses sneaking under the radar showing flashed of class that haven't even been hinted at all season.  A swansong before the turf is put away for the winter.  Some stables (small but shall remain nameless) are very good at this last one!

It follows that in many cases the usual way (i.e. form) of picking horses isn’t' as effective at this time of year - my pocket remembers this from last year also......!  So the small stakes (or no stakes) approach to anything other than the class races is more important than ever right now.

Looking through Monday's winners of the turf races (discounting maidens, nurseries, novice and apprentice races), I noticed something that may be worth investigating further but only at this time of the year.   It may be a Monday anomaly (trainers don't like to win on Monday - it gives them less time to run before their new mark comes in than on any other day of the week) so I will monitor this before embarrassing myself and telling the world the reasoning behind my laterally thought out discoveries!

So today I have not one but two lists – confusing enough but even more so as there is a different selection for one race but also an identical selection on each list!  One is the usual system selection list and the other is an "EOS system list" (EOSS = End Of Season Selections) which is more of a proofing list than a betting or tipping list. 

US (Usual System) Selections:

Beverley

14:00            Cat O'Nine Tails (1.8) 1st                                                              15:00           Steel Stockholder UP 

16:00            Group Therapy (2.5) UP

loss of -1.2 

EOSS (End Of Season System) Selections:

Beverley

14:00            Cat O'Nine Tails (1.8) 1st 

15:00            Steed (23) UP

16:00            Favourite Girl (9) 2nd (so close!)

133                    117                     114 

       56                         52                   25  

Wednesday’s Selections & Updates – 14 September

Despite watering on Tuesday morning and then showers and a heavy heavy downpour at around 2pm, Yarmouth did no more that revise the initial description slightly from good to firm to good (good to soft in places).  After the first race, three jockeys declared (1) “soft”, (2) “they’re getting into it” and (3)“in half an hour the ground will be on the easy side”.  It stayed good (good to soft in places).  Coupled with the strong side wind, it’s a miracle that any punter was able to call a winner there at all.  I sometimes wonder if the Clerk of some Courses just sends his (or her) dog outside then has a quick look to see if its paws are wet on its return.   "Wet paws Fido?  Must be soft then!"  If so, then the Yarmouth CofC dog must be very well trained and wipes it’s feet on it's way back in!

Martin Dwyer rode a four timer at Ffos Las on Sunday and then a treble at Kempton on Monday.  This appears to have gone pretty much unnoticed and Martin tweeted yesterday (Tues) that RP had barely mentioned it either – all they were about was Fallon’s single win!  To be honest I thought it was all about football in today's RP but still, you have to feel for the guy after such an achievement warrant's barely a mention in the press.  He had another win today so that's 8 in 3 days!   

This vid interview from Love The Races last October is great fun - I love some of his answers!

System selections for Wednesday are:

Beverley

14:35   Forevers Girl (12) UP

15:45   Greyfriars Drummer (16.5) Wrong Johnston horse!  Bells O Peover won - a former blog selection!

Yarmouth

17:00   Top Diktat (4.5) 3rd 

Kempton

20:10   Desert Icon (4.6) 3rd

20:40   Secret Edge (4) 3rd but UP

A bout of thirditis today and down -5

There’s another race tomorrow called the Kieren Fallon Writes For The Weekender at Kempton 20:10.  If he’s lucky then the race’s namesake might actually get to ride in this one (last time his ride was a non runner)!  He's aboard Steelcut for David Evans but this isn't my system selection (see above!) Steelcut finished unplaced 

Sandown 14:20 September Nursery 5f, Class 5 2yo

5f races around Sandown have a very marked draw bias towards those drawn low.  At this stage of the year, most 2yos have had enough runs that this will make a difference (i.e. they aren’t running green zig zags along this straight track!). 

Roy’s Legacy is chasing a hat trick from a low draw and travelling 158 miles in pursuit of it.  Robbie Fitzpatrick who won both times on him is still aboard but so is a 6lb penalty.  His previous two wins were at Kempton and this is a very different challenge.  My feeling is the extra weight, turf and stiff track could combine to deny him but he won is such style LTO (improving considerably from his first win) that it would be foolish to discount a bold bid.

Worth is another who’s only win has been at Kempton although he has placed on turf.  Partnered by Martin Dwyer who rode him for that win, he put on a poor show LTO at Warwick (albeit from a lousy middle draw).

Dark Ages is yet another runner who is ridden by the only jockey to have ever won on him (Adam Kirby) but the stables current form is enough for me to put a line through him (13 runners / 0 wins)

Invincible Dream has the help of a decent jockey in Kieren Fallon and also the plum rail draw.  He ran a dreadful race LTO but did have to cover a few extra yards when his jockey took him to the outside and he then faded quickly about a furlong out - so the drop to 5f (albeit a stiff 5f) might be a good move.  Again, the stable isn’t exactly firing right now and he looks as though he is as high in the weights as he wants to be.

HOWEVER, the other three mentioned are likely to vie for the lead and being drawn close together, may set this up for Invincible Dream to pick up the spoils (or at least place) at a big price if Fallon can get the fractions spot on.

Roy’s Legacy             win UP Something went badly wrong here - too bad to be true

Invincible Dream       each way Badly hampered (as were quite a few) leaving the stalls - no chance but watch out nto!

128                      111                    109

      56                       50                    24