Beverley 16:30 Beverley Annual Badgeholders Handicap 1m 100y, Class 5 3yo
It always helps at Beverley to look for a horse with course form but since this is a race for 3yo and barely any have set foot on the track before today, then this isn't the best indication. Abidhabidubai is the only runner to have placed here before - none have won.
The last part of this course is fairly testing so I'm looking for a horse who is absolutely guaranteed to stay a mile and from what I've seen Lady Sledmore has a big fat question mark over this criteria - I'm not sure she's crying out for this extended mile!
A mid to high draw holds the advantage here at this distance (which is a negative for Abidhabidubai and Switchback) so by this reckoning St Oswald has the plum draw. Breeding would suggest that further is going to suit him over time and ee has De Sousa's help today with the added bonus that he will handle the going if the rain gets in to the ground. His run at Thirsk LTO was from a poor draw (he still managed 4th) and that race wasn't really run to suit plus he carries a pound less here.
St Oswald 6/1 3rd
There are always some very odd results on the flat at this time of the year – great odds if you can only find them! In a nutshell, this seems to be caused by a combination of knackered favourites and more than the usual number of horses sneaking under the radar showing flashed of class that haven't even been hinted at all season. A swansong before the turf is put away for the winter. Some stables (small but shall remain nameless) are very good at this last one!
It always helps at Beverley to look for a horse with course form but since this is a race for 3yo and barely any have set foot on the track before today, then this isn't the best indication. Abidhabidubai is the only runner to have placed here before - none have won.
The last part of this course is fairly testing so I'm looking for a horse who is absolutely guaranteed to stay a mile and from what I've seen Lady Sledmore has a big fat question mark over this criteria - I'm not sure she's crying out for this extended mile!
A mid to high draw holds the advantage here at this distance (which is a negative for Abidhabidubai and Switchback) so by this reckoning St Oswald has the plum draw. Breeding would suggest that further is going to suit him over time and ee has De Sousa's help today with the added bonus that he will handle the going if the rain gets in to the ground. His run at Thirsk LTO was from a poor draw (he still managed 4th) and that race wasn't really run to suit plus he carries a pound less here.
St Oswald 6/1 3rd
There are always some very odd results on the flat at this time of the year – great odds if you can only find them! In a nutshell, this seems to be caused by a combination of knackered favourites and more than the usual number of horses sneaking under the radar showing flashed of class that haven't even been hinted at all season. A swansong before the turf is put away for the winter. Some stables (small but shall remain nameless) are very good at this last one!
It follows that in many cases the usual way (i.e. form) of picking horses isn’t' as effective at this time of year - my pocket remembers this from last year also......! So the small stakes (or no stakes) approach to anything other than the class races is more important than ever right now.
Looking through Monday's winners of the turf races (discounting maidens, nurseries, novice and apprentice races), I noticed something that may be worth investigating further but only at this time of the year. It may be a Monday anomaly (trainers don't like to win on Monday - it gives them less time to run before their new mark comes in than on any other day of the week) so I will monitor this before embarrassing myself and telling the world the reasoning behind my laterally thought out discoveries!
So today I have not one but two lists – confusing enough but even more so as there is a different selection for one race but also an identical selection on each list! One is the usual system selection list and the other is an "EOS system list" (EOSS = End Of Season Selections) which is more of a proofing list than a betting or tipping list.
US (Usual System) Selections:
Beverley
14:00 Cat O'Nine Tails (1.8) 1st 15:00 Steel Stockholder UP
16:00 Group Therapy (2.5) UP
loss of -1.2
EOSS (End Of Season System) Selections:
Beverley
14:00 Cat O'Nine Tails (1.8) 1st
15:00 Steed (23) UP
16:00 Favourite Girl (9) 2nd (so close!)
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| 133 117 114 |
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| 56 52 25 |
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