Okies - I have a vat of strong Colombian coffee on the go, Patricia Kaas playlist softly in the background and my winner picking head on and will be concentrating solely on the Longchamp card today.....
12:10 Qatar Prix Du Cadran (Group 1) 2m 4f
A worrying and very unexpected result with neither placing...will be interesting to hear reasons later.
13:20 Total Prix Marcel Boussac –
Criterium Des Pouliches (Group 1) 2yo Fillies1m
16:45 Qatar Prix De
L’Opera (Group 1) 3yo Fillies & Mares 1m2f
I backed Sandy's Charm in the 16:45 yesterday (not totally blindly - it has some decent form too!) and I notice that the price has shortened now. That's my one and only and final bet and with a name like that it has to win .............
12:10 Qatar Prix Du Cadran (Group 1) 2m 4f
Expect this stayer’s race to be run at
a snails pace...with no out and out favourite or star. Genkoo won the race last year but hasn’t been
firing on all cylinders this year and seems to prefer some juice in the ground.
.Kasbah Bliss has been around forever but still keeps winning and with a
trainer/jockey combination that do extremely well here I will tentatively plump
for him with an each way or place only bet on Maria Royal whose trainer (Royer
Dupre) also does well here and could well benefit from the extra distance.
Kasbah Bliss
7/2 1st
Maria Royal 11/1 UP Didn't stay
Maria Royal 11/1 UP Didn't stay
12:45 Qatar Prix
De L’Abbaye (Group 1) 5f
Now we see some names that we will
recognise! Margot Did, Sole Power, Prohibit
and a host of other familiar names all run in this. Jamie Spencer is back from across the pond
(fresh from winning in the US on Cape Blanco) to take the ride on Margot
Did. She looks one of the class horses
of the race but the stable isn’t firing out the winners recently as it was
earlier in the season. I don’t think
that Masamah is totally without a chance that the odds would suggest. Prohibit is class class act but is carrying a
little more than on his previous winning outings this year. The word is for Wizz Kid (her trainer was
furious that her run was impeded at York LTO and believes she may have won if
she’d not bee stopped in her tracks) but her one run on good was abysmal. Prohibit looks to have his conditions here
today and I will opt for him with an each way saver on Wizz Kid just in case
she is as good as her trainer believes!
Prohibit 7/2 UP
Wizz Kid 11/2 UP
Wizz Kid 11/2 UP
A race
for 2yo and Zantenda knows the track well (she’s already won here twice) as
does her trainer and jockey. Falls Of
Lora has been supplemented for this – of course, this may mean more if it wasn’t
a Godolphin horse for whom the fee is but a drop in the oilwell! It’s debateable if Fire Lily will see out the
mile but if she does then I can see here following Zantenda home. This really ought to be the easiest winner of
the day – the price for Zantenda on the PMU
is half that available in UK.
Zantenda 13/8 (nap) UP (3rd)
Olivier kicked for home along the rail - the winner and 2nd went up the middle.
13:55 Qatar
Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (Grand Criterium) (Group 1) 2yo Colts & Fillies 7f
I lied
when I said that Zantenda in the last race should be the easiest winner of the
day because she share’s my faith with Dabirsim in this! He has never lost a race and although they’ve
all been over 6f, the way that he won his last race (Group 1) by 3 lengths
going away, means that this extra furlong will be eaten up in a heartbeat. The price is as short as you’d imagine at
odds on 8/11 so I’ll be doubling up with Zantenda (previous race) and putting
him in a forecast with Sofast.
Dabirsim 8/11 1st
Sofast 9/2 (forecast
or/and place or each way) 2nd
14:30 Qatar Prix De La
Foret (Group 1) 3yo+ 7f
This has
taken a supreme effort to even look at the other runners with Golikova lining up
going for her 15th Group 1 win!
But I took a deep breath andmade myself and despite finding redeeming
features for many of the other runners (Dream
Ahead’s pink silks, Johnny Murtagh’s record here with his only ride Bewitched
etc) I cannot bring myself to oppose the great one even at the short price
that she is .... so she is joining Zantenda and Dabirsim in a treble. For the record, I would have Worthadd as next
best ahead of Dream Ahead so might chance an each way and/or or a forecast.
Goldikova 4/6 2nd We can only hope that this was being used as prep race for BC at a distance a furlong short of her best
Worthadd 10/1 UP
15:15 Qatar Prix De L’Arc De Triomph
(Group 1), 1m4f, 3yo+
I really wish that Meandre had a better draw in
this race – he’s been supplemented and ticks all the boxes but I feel that the
double figure draw will find him out.
Hiruno D’Amour has won some big purses in
Japan, will go on any ground and a mile and a half will be absolutely perfect (2nd
here last year).
Sarafina is a lovely classy horse perfectly
capable of winning this – again the double figure draw is a huge negative
though and given that she likes to be held up, will need a lot of luck as she
is likely to have to pass the field to get her head in front.
It rather looks as though this has been the
target for So You Think all year! The
step up in distance I would no longer be worried about but the draw again!
Of the three Ballydoyle runners, St Nicholas
Abbey (with JOB aboard) is the only one with a decent draw. He was 3rd LTO to Sarafina but the
softer ground was against him and (although only 4 runners) he did have the
worst of the draw.
Treasure Beach has won the Irish Derby and Secretariat
Stakes at Arlington this year as well as coming a close second in the Epsom
Derby and shouldn’t be underestimated. Again
the double figure draw is the obstacle.
Galikova is very very near to the top of my
list but has never raced on anything faster than good to soft which must be a
concern! Apart from this one detail,
everything else looks in order for a win but it’s too big a concern for me to
back her.
Masked Marvel has been supplemented for this at
a cost of £100K. The faster ground will
suit and with a decent draw and an abundance of stamina, he ought to be there
at the business end of things (think held up then pounce!).
Masked Marvel 14/1 each way UP
Apparently Mike Repole has has a large 'hunch' bet on Testosterone - good draw and jockey!?
Winner Danedream had a dream draw in stall 2 and I even mentioned her on this blog on Friday! Didn't think to back her for a moment though
Winner Danedream had a dream draw in stall 2 and I even mentioned her on this blog on Friday! Didn't think to back her for a moment though
I backed Sandy's Charm in the 16:45 yesterday (not totally blindly - it has some decent form too!) and I notice that the price has shortened now. That's my one and only and final bet and with a name like that it has to win .............
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