Badly Drawn Blog

Ok, that's enough rain - we're bored now and the reservoirs are full again!  

The weather has however been giving some trainers the perfect excuse for pulling a badly drawn runner out of a race. When a trainer uses the going as an excuse reason to take a horse out of a race then they can run the horse again the very next day if they want, whereas with a self certificate they have to wait a week.  Let's test this theory and see how many NRs there are on Wednesday at Yarmouth in the 14:10 (high draw adv) * Just 1 NR drawn 2 16:40 (high draw adv) *4 x NRs drawn 2, 5, 10, 11 and especially the 17:10 (mid to high draw adv) *None...yet! then take a look where they were drawn.  I can't say I wouldn't do the same though!

Amy Ryan

Monday saw as many falls and tumbles on the flat as you would see in a conditional jockeys' novice chase at Aintree!  Amy Ryan took a very nasty fall when Oakbrook stumbled (clipped heels?) at Ayr but was up on her feet fairly quickly, tough cookie that she is.  

David Probert

Also at Ayr, James Sullivan got deposited onto the turf by Head Space, once on the way to the start and then a second time when, looking like the winner he spotted the winning line and tried to jump it.  Sandwiched in between was a very decent run from Head Case Space who will be worth watching for next time out and hopefully a bit wiser!  


Later, David Probert parted company with Viscount Vert at full gallop at Windsor when the saddle slipped.   Who says that the flat jockeys have it easy?

You may have seen the sister site SpeedyEquines which has been churning out a regular profit.  I've been devising a 'profit enhancing' system to cherry pick those selections worthy of a bigger investment.  It's still very much in it's infancy and by no means tried and tested yet but it's been doing ok so far - apart from Tuesdays.....Tuesdays are the betting curse of my week....it should be Mondays given the handicappers diary...but for me it's Tuesdays and I should seriously consider making this my rest day! 


Bearing in mind that last sentence (the "by no means tried and tested yet" bit), I'll be putting up some selections that I shall be backing with a higher investment:

Lingfield

16:00 Tallulah Mai            5 pts win  UP

Yarmouth

14:40 Cappielow Boy       5 pts win  UP

16:10 Comrade Bond       2.5 pts e/w  1st

17:10 Grandad Mac          5 pts win  2nd    

Catterick Meeting abandoned after race 4 due to waterlogged course

16:20 Rasselas                 5 pts e/w

16:50 Emeralds Spirit       2.5 pts win

Naas

19:00 Kane’s Pass            5 pts e/w UP

19:30 After                     10 pts win UP
21:00 The Fox Tully        10 pts win UP

Kempton

18:20 Paphos                  2.5 pts win 3rd

19:20 Street Power         5 pts e/w UP

21:20 Lightning Spirit      5 pts e/w UP


A couple of hard luck stories amongst that lot 

A while ago I put up a picture of Jason Maguire riding Overturn onto Chester racecourse with the Olympic torch held aloft.  Yesterday it was the flat jockeys' turn - with Frankie Dettori carrying the flame into Ascot on board Monsignor:

It's a while since I've put a video funny up here so here's a Dutch commercial ripping off the Sopranos (in turn ripping off Goodfellas):

Monday's Selections & Results - 10 October

Well today (Monday) the new “7 hits for flat and 8 hits for jumps with no more than 5 in the final furlong” rule.  I shall say no more since the press will be full of it and I had my say a few days ago on this blog!  ......except listen out for the clunking as the jockeys weigh in (that's the abacus up the sleeve making the noise)

Fallon is in action at Salisbury today and has a 43% strike rate here – pretty damn good by anyone’s reckoning – if this works out then his 7 rides should produce 3 wins and he really needs every one if he’s still to be in with a chance of the jockeys title.  His record on 2yo and 3yo here is marginally even better so the maidens are worth a look .....although on the flip side the trainers’ records for 2yo races all stand at a most un-hot  and ice cold 0%!

Todays selections are:

Yarmouth

15:15  Soap Wars (12) 2^nd

16:20  Bogey Hole (5.2) UP

Salisbury

16:30  Mabait (5.4) UP

17:00  Mini’s Destination (17) UP

17:30  Billy Buttons (5.8) UP

Windsor

16:40  Grumeti (4.2) NR (although the trainers recent record tempers enthusiasm a bit!)

Not a good day with -5 loss

Australia
Bogey Hole - a man-made swimming pool dug from the ocean rocks by convicts in 1820 in Newcastle, New South Wales 

In case I forget to mention Dr Finley at Newcastle (17:00) tomorrow 11 October then I’ll mention it now!!

Wednesday’s Selections & Updates – 14 September

Despite watering on Tuesday morning and then showers and a heavy heavy downpour at around 2pm, Yarmouth did no more that revise the initial description slightly from good to firm to good (good to soft in places).  After the first race, three jockeys declared (1) “soft”, (2) “they’re getting into it” and (3)“in half an hour the ground will be on the easy side”.  It stayed good (good to soft in places).  Coupled with the strong side wind, it’s a miracle that any punter was able to call a winner there at all.  I sometimes wonder if the Clerk of some Courses just sends his (or her) dog outside then has a quick look to see if its paws are wet on its return.   "Wet paws Fido?  Must be soft then!"  If so, then the Yarmouth CofC dog must be very well trained and wipes it’s feet on it's way back in!

Martin Dwyer rode a four timer at Ffos Las on Sunday and then a treble at Kempton on Monday.  This appears to have gone pretty much unnoticed and Martin tweeted yesterday (Tues) that RP had barely mentioned it either – all they were about was Fallon’s single win!  To be honest I thought it was all about football in today's RP but still, you have to feel for the guy after such an achievement warrant's barely a mention in the press.  He had another win today so that's 8 in 3 days!   

This vid interview from Love The Races last October is great fun - I love some of his answers!

System selections for Wednesday are:

Beverley

14:35   Forevers Girl (12) UP

15:45   Greyfriars Drummer (16.5) Wrong Johnston horse!  Bells O Peover won - a former blog selection!

Yarmouth

17:00   Top Diktat (4.5) 3rd 

Kempton

20:10   Desert Icon (4.6) 3rd

20:40   Secret Edge (4) 3rd but UP

A bout of thirditis today and down -5

There’s another race tomorrow called the Kieren Fallon Writes For The Weekender at Kempton 20:10.  If he’s lucky then the race’s namesake might actually get to ride in this one (last time his ride was a non runner)!  He's aboard Steelcut for David Evans but this isn't my system selection (see above!) Steelcut finished unplaced 

Sandown 14:20 September Nursery 5f, Class 5 2yo

5f races around Sandown have a very marked draw bias towards those drawn low.  At this stage of the year, most 2yos have had enough runs that this will make a difference (i.e. they aren’t running green zig zags along this straight track!). 

Roy’s Legacy is chasing a hat trick from a low draw and travelling 158 miles in pursuit of it.  Robbie Fitzpatrick who won both times on him is still aboard but so is a 6lb penalty.  His previous two wins were at Kempton and this is a very different challenge.  My feeling is the extra weight, turf and stiff track could combine to deny him but he won is such style LTO (improving considerably from his first win) that it would be foolish to discount a bold bid.

Worth is another who’s only win has been at Kempton although he has placed on turf.  Partnered by Martin Dwyer who rode him for that win, he put on a poor show LTO at Warwick (albeit from a lousy middle draw).

Dark Ages is yet another runner who is ridden by the only jockey to have ever won on him (Adam Kirby) but the stables current form is enough for me to put a line through him (13 runners / 0 wins)

Invincible Dream has the help of a decent jockey in Kieren Fallon and also the plum rail draw.  He ran a dreadful race LTO but did have to cover a few extra yards when his jockey took him to the outside and he then faded quickly about a furlong out - so the drop to 5f (albeit a stiff 5f) might be a good move.  Again, the stable isn’t exactly firing right now and he looks as though he is as high in the weights as he wants to be.

HOWEVER, the other three mentioned are likely to vie for the lead and being drawn close together, may set this up for Invincible Dream to pick up the spoils (or at least place) at a big price if Fallon can get the fractions spot on.

Roy’s Legacy             win UP Something went badly wrong here - too bad to be true

Invincible Dream       each way Badly hampered (as were quite a few) leaving the stalls - no chance but watch out nto!

128                      111                    109

      56                       50                    24 

Tuesday’s Selections – 13 September

Well, the excuse on Monday for Blue Bunting’s poor show in Saturday’s St Leger is that “she may have come in to season”. 

Not good Godophin!  Excuses like that are no excuse at all.  The vets at Moulton Paddocks need to do better than this!  They ought to know exactly if and when a filly is to come in to season.....and if she had then rather than withdrawing her from the race, Al Zarooni should have told Frankie to make all........well she was the only filly in the race so she'd have been off like a rocket before the others caught up......vavavoooom!

Musselburgh was abandoned due to the high winds yesterday after just one race.... that's a heck of a long journey to make for a lot of trainers, jockeys, punters and horses.  I'm sure KF will have been (quietly) pleased though since both Hanagan and De Sousa (who won the one and only race run) were riding there.

Tuesday's system selections (let's hope for more like yesterday):

Folkestone

14:20   Uphold (3.75) NR

16:50   Silenzio (2.32) 1^st

Yarmouth

14:40   Ex Oriente (10.5) UP

17:10   Midnight Rider (6.6) UP

Haydock

16:00   Al Aasifh (9.8) 2^nd

A loss of -1.68 today

I put my system selections up earlier but I also like Alsahil in the Haydock 14:30.  If he handles the going (untried) then he'll be hard to beat with James Rogers taking off 5lb (he won on him a week ago and has no penalty for that apprentice race) UP

This version video has lots of very nice .........cars  in it!

128                        110                    109

      56                       50                     24 

Tuesday’s Selections & Results – 23 August

Only two winners today but at least George Baker won!

George Baker - a fine figure of a man horse

One of the system picks today is George Baker - ridden by George Baker, trained by George Baker, owned by George Baker ... not bred by George Baker though.  He’s won three times from the past four runnings (the horse that is) but never when ridden by George Baker but there’s a first time for everything (even if it’s not the use of the name).  


Since he was pulled from a race last week (same jockey booking), you have to imagine that he’s ready for a big run – at the time of writing (11:04 Monday night) the price on Betfair is 4.3 and I can imagine that this will shorten considerably if he’s expected to win!  

Barry Hills signed off his training career on a high on Saturday with his last ever runner (One Lucky Lady) winning at Bath.  Today his son Charlie, who has taken over the license had a win with his first ever runner – Blaise Chorus at Kempton which was swiftly followed by a double at Windsor.  A nice seamless transfer which I reckon a few football clubs could only dream of.

Today’s system selections are:

Leicester

15:00   Brave Dream (11.5) UP

15:30   Spanish Bounty (3.25) UP

16:30   George Baker (4.4) 1^st

Warwick

17:30   Noverre To Go (2.34) 1^st

Yarmouth

18:50   South African Gold (6.2) UP

19:20   Negotiation (8) UP

19:50   Flame Of Hestia (2.7) 2^nd

^{With only the 2 winners a loss of -0.26 today}

Negotiation (Saxondale Style)

PS:  Our house now has a resident bat which no one can catch.  We’ve given up – it’s too clever for us and it now resides down the back of a chest of drawers in my daughter’s bedroom.  It has been christened Brucey (there's a clever reason for this - think about it!).  There is a plateful of jellybeans to lure it out with (apparently a website says bats like After Eights and mint flavoured jelly beans are the nearest thing we’ve got in the house).   If there is a horse running in the next day or two with a name that incorporates Bruce or Bat then I have orders to bet 50p each way on it (to raise funds for After Eights).
This morning there is no sign of Bruce - we think he has dropped to the bottom of the gap in search of tasty insects (spider?) rather then jellybeans.