Avoidance Blog - 24 May

I have my tickets lined up for Haydock 02 June!  Now I know the Sandy Lane Stakes isn't quite the Derby but with a race name like that I have to be there don't I ?  And there is some decent racing , Pimms, BBQ, afternoon tea and a band no less......I need to go hat shopping!

Now I have to find something to do two days later on Jubilee Day itself to avoid the kids street party outside my front door (Bah humbug). Now who's taking bets that this scaffolding (still unchanged) will soon become festooned with bunting and some small child will mistake if for a climbing frame if they can manage to avoid their parents for a few moments (well I would have) ?


Leicester has a meeting that day - that's only 100 miles away!  Never been to Leicester before.......never used a trip to the races as an avoidance ploy either....

The Wife's Sister knocked out almost all of the ticket jackpot ticket holder at Worcester on Wednesday.  The remaining 73.5 joined the after the second race.  This means that £140,472 is rolled over to Haydock for Thursday's Tote jackpot and this can be expected to hit the £250K mark with the big syndicates no doubt coming out to play!

With the Derby looming (I wonder if Fallon will have a ride this year?), Clare Balding tweeted a sweet sweet story on Wednesday morning.  

Mill Reef

During filming at her brother Andrew's yard, she explained to her nephew that Grumpy (Clare's father Ian) had trained Mill Reef to win the Derby in 1971 and that it was really hard to train a Derby winner and some trainer never have one.  Her 5 year old nephew sat down with his Dad Andrew and said "Daddy, if he's going to win the Derby I think Grumpy should train Bonfire". 

Draw Bias Nuggets:

• Goodwood has a pronounced low draw advantage over 6f, 7f and 8f.  
• You don't want to be drawn in the middle at 7f at Haydock
• You most definitely want to have a high draw in 12f races at Haydock 
• Big big low draw advantage for 5f races at Sandown
• Big big high draw advantage  for 5f races Tipperary

Wetherby

15:55 (2m 4f, Class 4 Novice Hurdle) I am always extremely wary of any runner making their hurdling debut - they can school as well as you can hope for at home but in the hurly burly of a race, a little experience can make the difference...unless it's a high class runner from one of the very top stables!  Therefore Well Sharp 1st would have to be around 5/1 before I would consider backing him (I'm also convinced that great though he is, McCoy on your back isn't always the most gentle introduction to obstacles!) and this is a tough ask back from almost 8 months.  King's Bayonet has already won a class 3 race at this same distance (the step up seemed to be the key) on good ground albeit going the other way round at Ascot.  Although he's been put up 10lb for that, he's had a short break and with Choc back up, this shouldn't be enough to stop him following up.  Speed Steed 6th should run well - he has no form on this distance but a win over 2 miles at Towcester would suggest this is within reach and he's on a generous mark.

• King's Bayonet Unplaced and very disappointing!

Tipperary

18:50 (5f) If the ground had a bit more cut (a lot more) Kateeva would have been my pick for this race - however she has never even placed on good before.  Possible NR has been put up 9lb for her last win and even with the jockeys claim, I think this may be a pound or two too much to follow up.  Despite the usual low draw theory, I prefer my stats which say that 13 of the last 17 races at this distance here have been won from a high draw (1 from middle and 3 from low) so stall 13 doesn't deter me from Red Sea Poll who is carrying a super feather weight and now has a 9lb pull on Possible who beat her by a length and a quarter last time out when she was returning from nine months off the track.

• Red Sea Poll NR

......and was I the only one to notice that Wicked Wench tipped up here at York last Friday (18 May) and previously on the 24 April turned out again at Windsor on Monday at 25/1 and won .....grrrrrr

I love the fact that Minidress is running in the "Height Of Fashion" Stakes at Goodwood at 15:4 today!

Tuesday's Selections & Updates (profits!) - 28 February

I really must leave racing alone on a Monday!  Form doesn't seem to be a factor for most races - or perhaps I'm just all raced out after the weekend.


Last night I was reminded of when I first saw Peddler's Cross (my fave horse ever in case you don't know!) winning his maiden hurdle at Haydock.  What a fantastic day that was - he really stood out in the paddock and made most of the other runners on the card look like riding school hacks.  It was quite a day with Diamond Harry also winning the novice chase at his first attempt at the big obstacles...and look at him now with a Gold Cup entry!  Spoilt I was :)
By the way, ToteSport have been offering NRNB on the GC for a while now (and their odds aren't too bad!)

Well the nap was beaten by the each way pick today!  Two winners, a second and a nothing.  A nice +9.11 profits (+152% !)

	Catterick	First Choice	E/W or FC Choice
1	14:20	Dar Es Salaam (EW) UP
2	14:50	Floras Pride 1st

	Leicester	First Choice	E/W or FC Choice
1	17:00	Cesium 2nd	The Laodicean (EW) 1st

 Nightly nap is running in the 17:00 at Leicester (you want the red one!):

Cesium
Leicester 17:00

I'll pop a couple more on in the morning but it'll be short and sweet selections tomorrow!  My strike rates for the meetings on Tuesday aren't great with Leicester (20.69%), Lingfield (25%) and Catterick marginally the best (25%)

sleeps to go!

Thursday's Selections & Updates including Meydan - 16 February

Time spent just on selections today!!


Are Ya Right Chief was found to be "clinically abnormal" after his race.  I like this phrase very much and will use it where ever possible tomorrow (cat, children, myself etc).  


A pretty lousy day all things considered -18.80 but still leaving the blog picks in profit for the month by +27.58

	Clonmel	First Choice	E/W or RF Choice
1	14:05	Edeymi 1st
2	14:35	Bishopsfurze 1st
3	15:05	Back In Focus NR	Stephanie Kate (EW) 1st
4	15:40	Are Ya Right Chief UP
You may as well back all of Rubys four rides in a Lucky 15 or Yankee!
5	16:40	King Maker (EW) UP

1/            You’ll be looking at short short prices for these first two selections – multiple time!

2/            “ ditto “

3/            “ditto”but if BackIn Focus doesn’t cope with the track here then Stephanie Kate could take advantage

4/            “ditto”

5/            His last outing was the first for 14 months and he didn’t disgrace himself.  Can run into a place or better today.

	Leicester	First Choice	E/W or RF Choice
1	15:00	Galway Jack 2nd	Advertising Space (EW) UP
2	15:35	He’s Our Lad 3rd	Alpha Way (EW) UP
3	16:05	Drom (nap) 3rd

1/           Tom George has only had Advertising Space 3 weeks and he holds an entry to a class 4 chase so is obviously thought well of.  

	Meydan	First Choice	E/W or RF Choice
1	14:30	Man Of Action UP
2	15:05	Nationalism UP
3	15:45	Rerouted 3rd	Captain Obvious UP
4	16:20	Arriete Arrollador UP
5	16:55	Time Prisoner (EW)  UP
6	17:30	Quick Wit  UP	Al Shemali (EW)  3rd

Notes:

1/         Don’t believe any claims a low draw is an advantage over a mile on the tapeta track.  Not true!  Of 47 races, 16 (34.04%) winners came from the middle draw (20% stalls) and 21 (44.68%) came from a high draw (40% stalls). 

2/         9.5f on tapeta are all about the trainers record with 8 of the last 9 races being won by a runner trained by one of the three trainers in the race with the best strike rate here.  In this race they are Oertel, bin Suroor and al Zarooni.  There is no draw advantage of any consequence.

4/         Huge draw bias over 7f tapeta for low to mid stalls with only 27.03% (10 of 37) winning from high.  Prominent runners also have an advantage with hold up horses being disadvantaged.   

5/         Rio De La Plata and Master of Hounds both have an awful lot going for them but there are negatives there too …I’m going each way on Time Prisoner who is very well treated and has the credentials.

	Kempton	First Choice	E/W or RF Choice
1	17:45	Macy Anne UP
2	18:45	Time Square 3rd	Bilidn (EW) UP (4th)

Drom
Leicester 16:05 
3rd

It seems  that Wayne and Coleen Rooney have a name for their 2yo colt who is residing at Manor House with Tom Dascombe and hanging out with team  mate Michael Owens racehorses there.  It's been named Switcherooney (second choice name after Oceans Seven was found to be taken already!)

Tuesday's Selections & Updates - 24 January

Yesterday was a nice profitable Monday - a rare event since logical winners usually seems to fly out of the window with the weekend.  
Two AW meetings and Leicester for Tuesday - my "best" strike rate of the three is at Leicester (37.25) so I shall look at these first.....

Ohh yuck, the first day in goodness knows how long without a winner at all!  Loss of -13.00

	Leicester	First Choice	E/W or RF Choice
1	13:35	Zama Zama UP
2	14:05	Esteem UR	Ilongue (EW)  UP
3	14:40	Tempest River 2nd
4	15:10	Crystal Rock UP

Notes:

2/             Drom is top of my list, I think he can cope with the penalty but not with being turned out again so quickly (if he runs!)  Esteem fit the stats but doesn’t tick all my boxes so I’m not on big time and I think Ilongue could run a big race for a place with a decent jockey booking (for a conditional).

3/           Form franked by Justazippy’s win at the weekend.

	Kempton	First Choice	E/W or RF Choice
1	14:30	Abigails Angel 2nd
2	15:00	Decider UP	Grudge (EW) UP
3	15:30	Bold Adventure UP
4	17:00	Broughtons Paradis 3rd

Leicester 14:40
Tempest River
2nd

A blonde decides to try horseriding, even though she had no prior experience. She mounts the horse without any help and the horse immediately springs into motion. 
As it goes along at a nice steady rhythm, the blonde begins to slip from the saddle. In terror, she grabs for the horse's mane, but cannot get a firm grip. She throws her arms around the horse's neck, but slides down its side anyway. Meanwhile, the horse continues along, ignorant of its slipping rider. 
Finally, giving up her frail grip, the blonde attempts to leap off the horse to safety, but her foot tangles in the stirrup, and she is now at the horse's mercy, her head striking the ground again and again. 
Moments before she loses consciousness, the Tesco manager notices her plight and unplugs the horse.