The Scoopy Haddock Blog

What a perfect day to abandon logical reason when picking the names of the Scoop 6 winners like ex professional ironist, Agnes Haddock from Cheshire did in 1997 when she included a runner called Clouding Over because “it looked like rain on the way to the betting shop” and Simon “because I used to work with a really nice lad called Simon” with bonus race winner Taranis chosen the next week was because he had cloth number 13 which was her birthdayand not because it was the favourite – although that helped!  This selection method worked quite nicely for her and she took the whole Scoop 6 pot plus the bonus race the week after totalling over £688k.

So in tribute of Mrs Agnes Haddock and in search of an immense prize today of upwards of £10 million I have supplemented my sensible form and stats based selections with randomly logical picks chosen a la Haddock for a bit of fun......and with quite possible as much chance of winning!

One thing’s for sure, there will be at least one huge priced winner amongst the Scoop 6 races today but I do think it WILL be won.

Race 1

Haydock 14:05 6f Class 3 4yo+ (16 runners) Good

There’s no draw advantage to speak of at 6f here (I keep my own records so can trust this fact!).  There were high hopes for Bear Behind 1st early in his racing career when he contested listed races but has only won twice – the last time being a class 6 claimer!  This may have done his confidence some good though so he’s not to be totally discounted. Go Far has a nice low weight and a trainer and jockey who have done well enough around here but I’m with Run With Pride, who could be anything, having made a successful belated debut over 6f at Doncaster 3 weeks ago where he did all his best work at the end.  He must have had problems as he cost 200K guineas as a yearly then went to Derek Shaw last August for a bargain £7.5K but I like him a lot so I’m hoping he’s all that!

Form Pick:              Run With Pride

Haddock Pick:         Polski Max because my daughter picked it and she picked the first Scoop 6 winner last week  which was 20/1 Front Page News.

Race 2

Catterick 14:50 7f Class 3 4yo+ (15 runners) Good to Soft, Soft

There’s no drastic draw bias but a middle draw is slightly less preferred.  Having a trainer with a good track record seems to hold more sway here than at any other courses and for that reason Conry, Dr Red Eye and Showboating have had more attention paid to them than would otherwise be the case.  Conry loves it here at Catterick with five wins and two seconds from eight runs here and also loves soft ground so with Stevie Donohoe on board (ridden 7x, won 3x) I am very keen on his chances.

Form Pick:              Conry 1st 

Haddock Pick:         Just Paul because that’s the name of one of my brothers.

Race 3

Goodwood 14:55 7f Class 2 3yo (12 runners) Soft

Here we have a definite draw advantage for those drawn low (stalls 1-5).  It’s also useful to have some course form so those two stats lead us to Penny Drops from the in-form Haggas stable. Her win last time out at Lingfield suggest she’ll cope here but she’s up in class and that win was against her own sex.   Beau Nash 3rd has barely any weight on his back today but has never tried been tried on a track such as this before.  Weight and stamina aren’t as important as good balance on a sharp track like Goodwood so Beau Nash may not have such an advantage as first appears.  Mick’s Yer Man is a listed winner and although untried over this distance,  winning a 6f at Leicester is enough to suppose that he has the stamina for 7f here.  He likes soft ground and Ryan While takes off 5lb but his poor show at Chester poses a questionmark over the suitability of this track.  Supplicant has a nice draw and Fallon aboard who rides very well here.  Dropping into a handicap from group racing will be a lot easier today. His two wins at Ripon bode will for coping around this unique course and his outing at Newbury will have tuned him up nicely for this.

Form Pick:              Supplicant

Haddock Pick:         Penny Drops 2nd because everyone knows it’s lucky to pick a dropped penny

Race 4

Haydock 15:10 6f Class 1 Listed 3yo+ Fillies (15 runners) Good

Again, no draw bias to help guide us here.  3-5 year olds have fared best in this race with just one 6yo winning in the past ten years.  Only two favourites have won in that time yet nothing priced bigger than 20/1 and all the winners have had an RPR of between 100-112.

Gathering Power 2nd is a very interesting contender that ticks the stat list above and from the same connections as Sole Power and both stable form and jockey booking are encouraging at a decent price. However, Joyeuse is a classy filly dropping back to more realistic company now after her shot at the 1000 Guineas (11^th) which she didn’t stay.  Back at 6f and away from group company, Ryan More should ensure that she wipes the floor with this lot.   

Form Pick:              Joyeuse 1st

Haddock Pick:          Gracia Directa because it’s Spanish (Direct Grace) and I was in Barcelona last week!

Race 5

Catterick 15:25 7f Class 4 4yo+ (14 runners) Good to Soft, Soft

PJ McDonald has won this race for two different trainers in the past 3 years and today rides Millkwood.  He’s a long standing maiden but has placed here in the past on soft ground but is (unbelievably!) on his highest ever mark.  The hood and cheekpieces combination might just eke out that little bit more improvement required but he is up against it.  Khelman 3rd is better at 6f and Johnny Cavagin 1st could do with a couple more pounds respite from the handicapper.   My choice is Piceno.  Scott Dixon has had a cool (rather than cold!) spell lately but has a splendid 29% strike rate in 4yo+ races here plus Piceno is happiest on soft ground and has never been out of the places at Catterick in six runs.

Form Pick:              Piceno

Haddock Pick:         Bogsnog not because I’ve ever snogged a bog but because he’s owned by a syndicate called Facts & Figures and I like facts and figures!

Race 6

Haydock 15:45 8f Class 2 3yo (17 runners) Good

No horse starting at odds bigger than 12/1 has won this race in the past ten years so that’s where I’ve concentrated my efforts – on the more likely winners!  There’s no particular draw bias at this distance here either – despite what you read! 

Studying Zarwaan’s last run, I’m not convinced that this extra furlong will suit and a 3lbs rise makes him even less appealing.  What About Carlo looks classy enough but may be best on a right handed track and appears to need good ground.  William Haggas has a decent 35% strike rate with his 3yo at Haydock so Bilimbi needs very close consideration. Red Stargazer is an out and out stayer and C&D winner on soft here.  He’s up 6lb in a better race but is so progressive that he cancope with that and if the going changes with the forecast lunchtime downpour transpiring then he’s my choice.

Form Pick:              Bilimbi (good going)

Red Stargazer (soft going)

Haddock Pick:        Hot Coffee 4th because I read this name just as I’d just made myself one

GOOD LUCK !

©

Geegees - The Goodwood & Galway Blog

This week would be more attractive from a betting angle if I had a half decent record for Galway or Goodwood.  This last sentence was written before I picked the first two winners at Goodwood on Tuesday (Landaman and Noble Mission) but I'm still waiting for a Galway winner!  


A punter could do a lot worse than blindly 
back all of the Dermot Weld runners at Galway and then all of the Mark Johnston runners at Goodwood (if the stable hits the form that it's been threatening over the past few days).  

Galway has had a constant downpour over the course of Tuesday afternoon and the word 'good' has already disappeared from the going description with the word 'yielding' unlikely to feature either by the end of the evening!  One benefit there (or anywhere in Ireland) would seem to be the booking of a fierce, growly jockey with very pointy elbows, knees and toes.  Irish racing can be rough but hugely entertaining! 

Here is a little Galway funny.......

Pic:  Tom Jenkins / Guardian

Now a certain monster has frightened off all of the other runners in the Sussex tomorrow (Wednesday) and there remains just a field of four.  The give in the ground will be a plus for Farhh and could mean that Frankie will be able to leave his binoculars behind and still be able to see Frankel's rear end in the final furlong but the 1/20 about Frankel is moving towards the sort of price where an ISA will soon be in contention for a better return on your money!  In a race where even the fourth placed horse will receive prize money of £16,964.40, it won't be too painful for the others to follow Frankel home.  

PS:  Sir Henry isn't well at the moment and it's likely that he'll be watching the race from home. 

There are lots of great competitions around for Goodwood - here's a nice and easy one to enter which may bag you a free £50 bet with Bet365 for not doing very much at all in 3 different ways !

Picks are up daily as ever on www.speedyequines.com

Avoidance Blog - 24 May

I have my tickets lined up for Haydock 02 June!  Now I know the Sandy Lane Stakes isn't quite the Derby but with a race name like that I have to be there don't I ?  And there is some decent racing , Pimms, BBQ, afternoon tea and a band no less......I need to go hat shopping!

Now I have to find something to do two days later on Jubilee Day itself to avoid the kids street party outside my front door (Bah humbug). Now who's taking bets that this scaffolding (still unchanged) will soon become festooned with bunting and some small child will mistake if for a climbing frame if they can manage to avoid their parents for a few moments (well I would have) ?


Leicester has a meeting that day - that's only 100 miles away!  Never been to Leicester before.......never used a trip to the races as an avoidance ploy either....

The Wife's Sister knocked out almost all of the ticket jackpot ticket holder at Worcester on Wednesday.  The remaining 73.5 joined the after the second race.  This means that £140,472 is rolled over to Haydock for Thursday's Tote jackpot and this can be expected to hit the £250K mark with the big syndicates no doubt coming out to play!

With the Derby looming (I wonder if Fallon will have a ride this year?), Clare Balding tweeted a sweet sweet story on Wednesday morning.  

Mill Reef

During filming at her brother Andrew's yard, she explained to her nephew that Grumpy (Clare's father Ian) had trained Mill Reef to win the Derby in 1971 and that it was really hard to train a Derby winner and some trainer never have one.  Her 5 year old nephew sat down with his Dad Andrew and said "Daddy, if he's going to win the Derby I think Grumpy should train Bonfire". 

Draw Bias Nuggets:

• Goodwood has a pronounced low draw advantage over 6f, 7f and 8f.  
• You don't want to be drawn in the middle at 7f at Haydock
• You most definitely want to have a high draw in 12f races at Haydock 
• Big big low draw advantage for 5f races at Sandown
• Big big high draw advantage  for 5f races Tipperary

Wetherby

15:55 (2m 4f, Class 4 Novice Hurdle) I am always extremely wary of any runner making their hurdling debut - they can school as well as you can hope for at home but in the hurly burly of a race, a little experience can make the difference...unless it's a high class runner from one of the very top stables!  Therefore Well Sharp 1st would have to be around 5/1 before I would consider backing him (I'm also convinced that great though he is, McCoy on your back isn't always the most gentle introduction to obstacles!) and this is a tough ask back from almost 8 months.  King's Bayonet has already won a class 3 race at this same distance (the step up seemed to be the key) on good ground albeit going the other way round at Ascot.  Although he's been put up 10lb for that, he's had a short break and with Choc back up, this shouldn't be enough to stop him following up.  Speed Steed 6th should run well - he has no form on this distance but a win over 2 miles at Towcester would suggest this is within reach and he's on a generous mark.

• King's Bayonet Unplaced and very disappointing!

Tipperary

18:50 (5f) If the ground had a bit more cut (a lot more) Kateeva would have been my pick for this race - however she has never even placed on good before.  Possible NR has been put up 9lb for her last win and even with the jockeys claim, I think this may be a pound or two too much to follow up.  Despite the usual low draw theory, I prefer my stats which say that 13 of the last 17 races at this distance here have been won from a high draw (1 from middle and 3 from low) so stall 13 doesn't deter me from Red Sea Poll who is carrying a super feather weight and now has a 9lb pull on Possible who beat her by a length and a quarter last time out when she was returning from nine months off the track.

• Red Sea Poll NR

......and was I the only one to notice that Wicked Wench tipped up here at York last Friday (18 May) and previously on the 24 April turned out again at Windsor on Monday at 25/1 and won .....grrrrrr

I love the fact that Minidress is running in the "Height Of Fashion" Stakes at Goodwood at 15:4 today!

Thursday's Selections - 10 May

Well I hit the nail on the head yesterday with my observations about Marwan Koukash and with Franny Norton but unfortunately didn't put them both together to find the winner then had with Good Morning Star (Mark Johnston) - that trio won't be seeing 50/1 again in the near future!  They do all come together on Friday at Chester again though with English Summer (very appropriate!) at 16:45.

I can't say I was too impressed at the Chester Cup starting by flag (was anyone?) - the carefully considered draw bias was replaced by a lot of pushing and shoving to get the position that the jockey wanted.  

It may be prudent to pick the runners whose jockeys have the pointiest elbows should the flag come out again tomorrow!

When I mentioned to my other half that Wayne Rooney's first ever racehorse entry came last he asked "was he sat on it at the time?" 

The stewards at Southwell were a grumpy lot yesterday  - dishing out bans like balloons at a kids party.  Amy Scott received 2 days, Kieren Fox 4 days, Neil Farley 15 days and Robbie Fitzpatrick trumps them all with 20 days - all for whip offences.  

	Chester	First Choice	E/W or RF Choice
1	13:35	Robemaker  UP
2	14:05	Questioning UP	Glen’s Diamond (EW) UP
3	15:05	Gabrial 2nd

Notes:
1/     Robemaker looks very overpriced to me.  He can handle soft, I’m not worried about the track as he can manage sharp (Goodwood) and left handed (Yarmouth), he’ll love the 10f and the trainer/jockey combo do well here.

3/      Named after the owner’s son I believe!  Richard Fahey has said this is his best chance of a winner for Marwan this week.  

	Yarmouth	First Choice	E/W or RF Choice
1	17:20	Great Heavens 1st

Notes:

1/            Galileo colt who should love the ground and this extra distance

	Wincanton	First Choice	E/W or Forecast Choice
1	19:05	Made In Time F
2	20:35	Salomo 1st

Notes:

1/         Curtis/McCoy team up again!

2/        Ditto

Kelso Abandoned

	Kelso	First Choice	E/W or RF Choice
1	19:15	Inverlochy Lad
2	20:15	Kruzhlinin

There are early morning inspections on Thursday planned for Goodwood (06:30), Wincanton (08:00) and Yarmouth (07:30).   Goodwood sound quite hopeful about going ahead though and this is where my nightly nap is running at 16:30 (First Class).  
Unfortunately the optimism was unfounded at Goodwood and after 19mm of rain and parts of the course waterlogged, todays racing there has been abandoned. 

First Class NR (Meeting abandoned)
Goodwood
16:30

Wednesday's Selections - 21 September

Yet more dreadfully sad news on Tuesday with Michael Jarvis passing away just a day after Ginger McCain.  He only retired in February this year (ill health) but must have been content to see that Roger Varian took over the training of his string at Kremlin House so seamlessly and successfully (he taught him well!)

Despite her optimism, Hayley Turner will be out of action with her poorly ankle for the rest of the season now.  Apparently, she is busying herself by converting her spare bedroom into an office

Wednesday's system selections are:


Two winners today and profits of + 5.45

Let's hope the horse doesn't plant itself. 
Well apparently it did - a Non Runner!

Goodwood

15:10  Silenzio (3.95) 1st

15:45  Debussy (3) UP

Kempton

20:20  Eclipseoftheheart (4.5) 1st

20:50  Scarborough Lily (5) NR

Redcar 15:25 Subscribe to Racing UK Handicap 6f, Class 6 (3yo+)

This race is all about the penalised Darcey but even with Daryl Byrne’s 5lb claim, I would suggest that the additional 15lb she carries today combined with the jockeys relative inexperience will be too much to overcome. 

The low draw is a definite advantage here at this distance – 22 of the past 38 winners (57.89%) have been drawn low so this would discourage me from backing Belinsky or Memphis Man who I would otherwise be very interested in.

That would leave Song Of Parkes whose penultimate run resulted in a win – same C&D, going, jockey and weight. The runner up that day has gone on to win and frank the form so I see no reason she can’t put in a repeat performance today.

Song Of Parkes  13/2 each way 1st 

This is Workforce galloping at Sandown yesterday with Ryan Moore aboard:

Ryan is on course to ride Workforce in the Arc on the 02 October - a faster recovery than at first thought (if it happens!).  I wouldn't be happy if I were Kieren Fallon (no more spare rides) and I think I might be a little bit uneasy if I was Khalid Abdullah........!

And aren't we high brow today! Music by Debussy (Reverie) together with poetry and horses!

 133                      117                    117 

SDS had a treble today while the other two struck out.  This means although he has the same number of winners as Fallon, he is ahead by virtue of having more places

        56                        52                     25