Wednesday's Selections - 21 September

Yet more dreadfully sad news on Tuesday with Michael Jarvis passing away just a day after Ginger McCain.  He only retired in February this year (ill health) but must have been content to see that Roger Varian took over the training of his string at Kremlin House so seamlessly and successfully (he taught him well!)

Despite her optimism, Hayley Turner will be out of action with her poorly ankle for the rest of the season now.  Apparently, she is busying herself by converting her spare bedroom into an office

Wednesday's system selections are:


Two winners today and profits of + 5.45

Let's hope the horse doesn't plant itself. 
Well apparently it did - a Non Runner!

Goodwood

15:10  Silenzio (3.95) 1st

15:45  Debussy (3) UP

Kempton

20:20  Eclipseoftheheart (4.5) 1st

20:50  Scarborough Lily (5) NR

Redcar 15:25 Subscribe to Racing UK Handicap 6f, Class 6 (3yo+)

This race is all about the penalised Darcey but even with Daryl Byrne’s 5lb claim, I would suggest that the additional 15lb she carries today combined with the jockeys relative inexperience will be too much to overcome. 

The low draw is a definite advantage here at this distance – 22 of the past 38 winners (57.89%) have been drawn low so this would discourage me from backing Belinsky or Memphis Man who I would otherwise be very interested in.

That would leave Song Of Parkes whose penultimate run resulted in a win – same C&D, going, jockey and weight. The runner up that day has gone on to win and frank the form so I see no reason she can’t put in a repeat performance today.

Song Of Parkes  13/2 each way 1st 

This is Workforce galloping at Sandown yesterday with Ryan Moore aboard:

Ryan is on course to ride Workforce in the Arc on the 02 October - a faster recovery than at first thought (if it happens!).  I wouldn't be happy if I were Kieren Fallon (no more spare rides) and I think I might be a little bit uneasy if I was Khalid Abdullah........!

And aren't we high brow today! Music by Debussy (Reverie) together with poetry and horses!

 133                      117                    117 

SDS had a treble today while the other two struck out.  This means although he has the same number of winners as Fallon, he is ahead by virtue of having more places

        56                        52                     25

Saturday’s Selections & Updates – 03 September

I may not have any time for selections or racing tomorrow - I have updated todays (Sat) results below and also updated the jockey tables.  My dog Vinnie (who is the biggest and fiercest dog in the world ....in his mind) isn't well and possibly (after speaking to the vet) has colitis so a trip to the (ssssh whisper) v.e.t. may likely be required and certainly some tlc.  Poor baby :(

A much better day yesterday – with an added bonus that I learned I have free tickets for Doncaster on Wednesday. 

Paddy Power made me chuckle today when I saw they had Hayley Turner down as the Empress Charlotte’s  jockey on their site.  She is a tough cookie but not that tough (Luke Morris took the ride in case you’re wondering and came 2^nd). 

Fallon managed a double at Kempton (naturally this is because I didn’t back any of his rides) and so has edged a little further up the champion jockey leader board and has leap-frogged Silvestre De Silva (again). 

There’s a vote for who you think will win the Betfred Sprint Cup at Haydock tomorrow (15:35) – the vote will finish at 3pm so you can check back to see what comes out top if you like!

Today’s system selections are:

Kempton

14:45   Primaeval (5.4) 4^th

16:25   Crown Dependancy (4.9) UP

17:25   Summer Dancer (16) 3^rd

Thirsk

15:30   Legal Legacy (11.5) UP

18:05   Silly Gilly (6) UP

Ascot

15:45   Parlour Games (9.6) UP

Wolverhampton

19:00   Welcome Approach (6.2) UP

20:00   Reality Show (1.8) 1^st

20:30   Full Pelt (8) UP

Now this is more like a Saturday should be .....if you're a bookie!!  A -7.2 loss today which is not good but which WILL all be restored/won/returned/replenished over the next day or two.

It might be worth bearing in mind when looking at the card for the Sprint Cup that the following patterns show up from the past 10 years:

• 8 had won the same season
• 8 has won when partnered up with same jockey
• 7 had previously won over 6f
• 6 had previously won a graded race
• This would narrow down the field to 6:  Delegator, Dream Ahead, Genki, Hitchens, Masamah, Society Rock
• only 2 winners went off favourite

Dream Ahead won and fit all criteria above

How NOT To Pick A WInner

I had a dream last night - as I do most nights but generally they are forgotten or about washing up or hoovering or some other mundane chore (waste of a dream I know!).  Last night however, my dream was very precise in that a horse Hayley Turner would normally have ridden wins a fairly big race today.  No names, no trainer name (although elimination and/or common sense would point to Michael Bell) so I've looked and looked....Activate is all I can find.  If anyone notices a horse that Hayley would usually ride in a big race then please please name it in a comment below.  I'm intrigued by this dream and want to know whether to rent a fortune telling tent on Blackpool promenade next season!
I shan't be renaming myself Gypsy Rose Sandi any time soon!  Many thanks to Biggles who did point out to me today's runners who would normally have had Hayley riding.....

118                           107                            106

     56                                 49                              22

If you'd like to know how John Francome kept his weight down over the Christmas period back in the day, this vid will explain:

Thursday’s Selections & Updates – 01 September

Yesterday was a so close yet so far day.  Salik Tag couldn’t manage the final push in the 17:35 Carlisle and (away from the system) I picked 'The Name Is Don' in the 14:50 Folkstone (3^rd at 7/1) but not 'The Name Is Frank' in the 17:00 Bath (1^st at 12/1).....what's in a name?.....apparently a large profit.  It seems boxing promoters are popular names for racehorses (King and Warren by the way)!    

It’s  pretty tragic what has happened to Hayley Turner today so close to the end of the season.  Broken ankle after blog selection Rose Aurora reared up, dumped her and then landed on her.  That is bad luck in bulk and tied up with a ribbon.  I’ve understand that a fall for a flat jockey can be a heck of a lot worse than jumps.  It seems illogical but a jumps jockey is always prepared for the worse when he/she approaches a fence and has time to roll with the fall.  A flat jockey is rarely expecting it and when a fall does come along (far less frequently thankfully), it’s at a faster speed usually resulting in nastier injuries.  (Was I the only one who wondered how the on course nurse managed to get close enough to anyone to treat them?  Big boned...??) 

I hadn’t noticed Welcome Approach was running again yesterday – a day after he ran against his stable mate winner (and blog selection) Almaty Express at Wolves.  He won the apprentice race at Bath under Justin Newman. 

What a disaster of a day!  A day of huge gambles and huge sums gambled on them... ah well, "recover, regroup and recoup"....(I like that - I think I'll use that again - not in hurry hopefully though!)

Salisbury

16:25   Theladyinquestion (8.4) UP

17:30   Sabotage (4.4) UP

17:30   Colour Vision (4.4) UP

Another dutch but both are big enough to warrant this at the moment (rev forecast as well perhaps)

Redcar

16:50   Master Nimbus (9.2) UP

Kempton

19:10   Nezami (7.4) UP

19:40   Planetoid (3.6) UP

A poor sad dire awful -6 loss today ...but at least the only way is up because it can't get worse unless I choose seven selections for tomorrow!

Dubai Queen would have made this list for the 16:25 at Salisbury if Cumani had been in better form recently.  I'm sure I'm not imagining that he's not had the most spectacular season and his 14 day strike rate is only 5%!

and since we've had a running theme of funny racing commentaries this week - here's another!

117                               105                          104

     56                                   49                            21

Wednesday’s Selections & Results – 31 August

It’s a good job that there were no jumps meetings in Britain yesterday as it was the funeral of Doreen (Angel of Lambourn) Rackham and there would have been no one to ride, tack, prep, drive the horses! 

The church was full with another 100 people outside.  I’m sure that as well as the training staff,  there are just as many mothers who have reason to be thankful to this woman who looked after their children once they realised they weren’t going to make it as a jockey, when homesickness took a hold, or if they were ill or injured.   I hope that there’s someone else in Lambourn now to bake the cakes and look after the lads and lasses – that would be a fitting tribute to her memory.

Gilmar Pereira is apparently a baseball player and/or a rodeo cowboy but the one we're interested in is a 25 year old Brazilian jockey claiming 3lb riding for William Haggas. (Ssshhh – he’s ridden heaps of winners in Brazil including a Group 1).    
He’s riding Tamara Bay (below) as he has in all three starts and apparently work rides all the difficult ones at home so he should know the best way to get this horses head in front.     

Today’s system selections are:

Bath

15:00   Rose Aurora (5.9) WD

Carlisle

17:35   Salik Tag (8.6) 2^nd

Kempton

17:50   Tamara Bay (7.4) UP

20:20   Shooting Line (5.5) UP

Salik Tag was soooo close to winning but had to settle for 2^nd.  Overall -3 loss making it the worst day for quite some while       
                                                

...and if you're worried about Kieren Fallon getting to Kempton from Folkstone don't be.  He will be flying from Folkstone to an airfield near Kempton then making the rest of the journey on the back of a motorbike (for the first time ever)!  

I promised that we would have a female champion jockey daily total and so we have (at the bottom with the men’s one) and also the only other funny racing commentary in the world worth watching:

It's a shame Arrrrrrr wasn't running in this as well

115              105            102

        Hayley Turner 56                                    Cathy Gannon  49                            Julie Burke  21

These numbers are NOT ages but winners this season so far!!

Saturday’s Selections & Results (20 August)

Don't arm wrestle this woman!

It was fantastic to see Hayley Turner win her second Group1 yesterday on Margot Did – surely, if there are any still out there who doubt a woman’s strength in a finish then this should put paid any doubts?  I’d like to see one or two of the naysayers take on a jockey who happens to be a jockey (I’ve banned myself from using the term “female jockey”) in an arm wrestling contest!

Today is the last day of the Ebor Festival and I’ve managed just 6 winner so I’ve work to do -  but for now here are Saturday system Selections:

York

15:05     Opinion Poll (4.4) 1st 

17:20     Thirteen Shivers (7.8)

Sandown

15:55     Drift and Dream (10) UP

17:35     Aerial Acclaim (5) 2^nd

Chester

16:45     My Kingdom (15) UP


Small loss of -0.6 today :(

York

My picks for York require a magnificent effort from Frankie today (I have faith that his leg was hurting after that kick he received from Mountain Hiker on Thursday and that all Godolphin’s three runners yesterday coming LAST was an aberration never to be repeated.  I have enough faith that I’ve put a Canadian on all his rides today (most are covered with singles bets too)

14:00     Debenhams City Of York Stakes (Listed) 3yo plus, 7f, Class 1

Yaa Wayl won this last year for Michael Jarvis and now with Bin Suroor.  He’s popped over to Meydan over winter to run in a couple of (out of his league) races there before returning to the UK to win LTO at Newbury.  He shouldn’t disgrace himself (famous last words!)

Yaa Wayl             7/1 each way UP

14:30     Betfred Melrose Handicap 3yo only, 1m 6f, Class 2

Difficult one this!  The money is there for Communicator after some positive words from the trainer this morning.  The Bell/Turner combo is not too be dismissed lightly at the moment and he has a lot going for him.  Lyric Street is primed to do well and Cumani has a good record here with his 3yo – the same cannot be said for Fallon though who hasn’t won a 3yo race here at York in the past 5 years (19 runs) and this is enough to put me off.  I like Thubiaan (Haggas) but I have a problem with the jockey!  The extra 2f shouldn’t be a problem and he’s carrying less weight than he ever has.  I have to mention Apache (my husband’s method of selecting runners is to look for any with a cowboys & Indians name!) and he won his maiden at Leopardstown in impressive style and you can forget the Ascot run LTO when he was hampered and stumbled, never to recover.  Dare I suggest that Joseph may not be the most experienced pilot for this big field?  Eventually, I opted for Parlour Games who should relish the step up in trip and is fine on good or good to soft.  He won nicely LTO in a decent race at Ascot (beating Halifax that day) and this is the first time Frankie has race-ridden him so that has to be a plus.

Parlour Games                  12/1 each way 1st

15:05     Weatherbys Insurance Lonsdale Cup 3yo plus, 2m 88y, Class 1 (Group 2)

I’ve looked for something drawn high here with proven stamina and landed on yet another Godolphin runner (there’s more yet !) with Opinion Poll.  His 2^nd at Ascot in June on good/soft shows that he’ll have enough in his tank at the end to make his move (he’s an out and out hold up horse) and nick this on the line!

Opinion Poll      10/3 win 1st

15:40     Betfred Ebor 3yo plus, 1m 6f, Class 2

Saptapadi has the widest draw but this race has been won from a car park start before (Hugs Dancer 2002, Mediterranean 2001, Sergeant Cecil 2005, Dirar last year) so this needn’t be the impediment it might be and in fact, looking back at the previous winners it could even be an advantage.  Saptapadi will be held up for sure so will need luck in running as ever in such a big field but the fact that Fallon asked for the ride means a great deal.  Lost In The Moment is drawn next to him and someone I know has been throwing money at this one £ by £ over the past 2 weeks .  I have to put some on myself! 

Saptapadi                         7/1 each way UP

Lost In The Moment       7/1 each way UP

16:15     Julia Graves Roses Stakes (Listed) 5f, Class 1 2yo

This was an easy pick for me My Propeller was pulled out of a race a few days ago (I would have been on and the official reason given was the ground which was good and which she has won on before) and so I would suggest connection have high hopes and  saved her  for this one.  She was hopelessly outclassed in a group 2 LTO and would be much more suited to this.

My Propeller     9/2 1st 

16:50     Betfred Bonus King Nursery 1m, Class 2 2yo

There is a marked draw bias over a mile here with low draws having the advantage.  All those drawn 1-5 look to be in with a shout.  None have eyecatching entries so looking at the trainers and jockeys success rates here with 2yo, I’ve narrowed it down to the Fahey, Hill & Hannon trio.  Self Centred is off (Michael Hill rides!) and so what would appear to be Hannon’s second string, Wolfgang and Holy Roman Warrior are the two left on the shortlist.  Neither should be inconvenienced by a step up to a mile or the ground.  Holy Roman Warrior was the costlier and looks to have the middle distance breeding that isn’t apparent in Wolgang so he’s my tenuous selection.

Holy Roman Warrior      7/2 UP

17:20     tyregiant.com Handicap 3yo only, 5f, Class 2

This was another easy pick for me with Thirteen Shivers.  C&D winner who has won on both good to soft and good to firm so the going isn’t an issue.  Mick Easterby  and Graham Gibbons both do well with the 3yo races here and with a super low weight I think Thirteen Shivers is ahead of the handicapper here!  It would be nice to see this local trainer win the last race of the festival in what could be his last before retirement (but then again the only thing stopping Mick Easterby from training might be his invite to pass through the pearly gates!)

Thirteen Shivers              13/2 UP