The Magical Leger Ledger Blog

I have neglected this blog for quite some time while other demands have been taking up my time but have been inspired to put fingertips to keypad (pen to paper is so last century!) on this day that Camelot is vying to win the St Leger and become the first Triple Crown winner since Nijinsky back in 1970.  

Nijinsky was trained by Aiden namesake and previous Ballydoyle occupant, indeed founder Vincent O'Brien (no relation to Aiden) and was ridden by an equally long jockey, Lester Piggott.  My son (borderline autistic when it comes to working out relationships!) has pointed out that Nijinsky is Camelot's great uncle.  As a point of interest, the name Camelot was registered by Coolmore for ten years before they found the right horse to fit the name.  

Aiden has been quoted as saying "We've kept things simple since his Irish Derby win.  Joseph will just let him relax and see what unfolds."  Upon reading this, I was quoted as saying "Poppycock!  No Way!  Cojones!" (or at least the English version).  His preparation may have been simple but I cannot believe there is any way on this earth that Joseph will leave stall seven off without having been given riding instructions detailed to the last exact and precise inch!

The usually reserved  and restrained chaps at Timeform have pronounced Camelot to be a "certainty" (brave words there chaps!) and the bookies are offering no more than 1/2.  Johnny Murtagh believes he has a chance aboard Ursa Major (Johnny owns the stables that the trainer Thomas Carmoody operates from) but from the other runners' connections, you'll hear nothing more positive than "maybe", "perhaps", "with luck we might possibly manage a place".

If (when?) he wins the Leger, Camelot's worth as a stallion will reach dizzy "fee private" heights and a visit with him may well become the Holy Grail for breeders.  

*insert collective groan here*

So the challenge I see for the St Leger this year is in selecting the forecast and I have a liking for both Ursa Major who has proven himself over this distance and has a group win under his belt, and also Main Sequence who looked to be crying out for the extra distance when second to Thought Worthy last time out.  I shall be watching with mere pennies invested though.

UPDATE:  My heart goes out to Joseph O'Brien.  I have been hard on him in the past but I don't think today's defeat was jockey error alone - Camelot just didn't pick up as expected.  Seeing how things unfold obviously doesn't work!

Away from Doncaster, there is some good racing at Chester.  I was looking at all the races late last night when I received an email from a friend of my daughter who asked if I had any loss prevention advice.  I gave  him the heads up on Dr Marwan Koukash - although with 17 runners there today (this total may be down a tad due to a NRs) picking his winners today will be a bit more difficult - but winners he will surely have.  

The low draw is widely known to be a huge advantage at Chester but there are some distances where this really doesn't make quite the vast difference that is generally percieved (5f 110y and 7f 122y).  Franny Norton at Chester is worth about 7lb in my mind and he rides Storm Moon from the outside stall 8.  This means that the price is a tasty but fearless 9/1.

Below is a Racing Post summary of the last runner that Franny Norton rode to victory from an outside stall at Chester......

So there you have it!  Franny Norton is a magician......we shall rename him Merlin for the day.

Since today is the last time we will see Camelot race, I make no apology for putting up this video for the third time this year (it's brilliant!):

Friday's Fast Selection - 11 May

Apologies for the no show today - I'm currently using very slow internet through my mobile dongle as my provider (rhymes with ben and begins with z) has just invested 4mill in new equipment so that none of their customers can have internet access this sunny Saturday morning! 


How good was Graham Lee today with his double on Thursday?  Two rides and two winners cannot be bad.  Although it must help that he feels so at home in the lashing rain and mud after spending so many years in NH.

English Summer
Chester 16:45

My nap for tomorrow is the one I mentioned earlier.....English Summer trained by Mark Johnston, ridden by Franny the Manny and owned the good Dr Marwan - the very same trinity who had the 50/1 winner Good Morning Star on Wednesday.  This runner is a Montjeu gelding (gelding...?) who has form on this ground (France) with plenty of stamina for the trip in these conditions and being dropped back down in class after contesting some much better races.....and also very aptly named!  Currently available at 7/2 

Very disappointing unplaced!

A very quick blog today (picks for every race tomorrow will up at www.speedyequines.com in the morning though) and also a quick update on the medieval cross saga.  It is still exactly the  same as it was over a fortnight ago - which is no surprise really since it will take the car insurance processor some while to get back on their seat after falling off whilst laughing at the claim form.   "I didn't see it" just isn't going to cut it (genuinely what the car driver said!)

Saturday's Selections & Results - 24 September

There is a load of decent racing today (well it is a Saturday!) - with three decent meetings within an hour and a half of me (Haydock, Ripon, Chester) but I'm unable to get to any of them despite all my finest efforts as I have other stuff/commitments....but there's still time!!

There is some excellent racing coming up over the next few weeks - the Arc on 02 October, the Cesarewitch on 08 October at Newmarket (which Ascot haven't been able to get their grubby hands on ....yet), Champions Day at (spit hiss - we all know it really should be at HQ Newmarket) Ascot on 15 October and then on the 04 & 05 November the Breeders Cup  meeting across the pond which is at Churchill Downs for the second year running and also the Melbourne Cup on the 05 November.  

However today, we have the Cambridgeshire at Newmarket which is down to a mere 33 runners with the defection of Maraheb and Tinkertown - not exactly a sensible betting medium but fantastic fun to watch!  There may be one more to add to that non-runners list if the ground doesn't suit Dare To Dance (anyone who has backed this horse already is a brave brave soul).  Non Runner

There are also a couple of races at San Siro today that warrant attention -  the group 1 Premio Vittorio di Capua at 15:15 which has been won by Godolphin for five of the last 9 runnings (but no entry today!) and which looks set to be the Dick Turpin 1^st  v. Cityscape 2^nd race.

Also at San Siro today is the Premio Sergio Cumani group 3 at 15:50 which is named in  honour of Luca Cumani's 10 times champion trainer father Sergio. Luca has an entry, Khor Seed 1^st

Paul Hanagan is riding at Newmarket today and Kieren Fallon is riding at Haydock - swapsies!

Today’s system selections are:

Haydock

14:45  Gentle Lord (11) 4^th

My Italian picks were best today (see above!)  Just the one winner on this shopping list and a loss of -4.8

Chester

16:10  Swift Alhaarth (6.6) UP

16:45  Baby Strange (5.4) UP

17:20  Corporal Maddox (5) 2^nd

Wolverhampton

17:50  Le Toreador (7) UP

19:20  Justbookie Dot Com (3.55) 3^rd

19:50 Yensi (4.6) UP

20:50 Painted Tail (4.2) 1^st          

Ripon

18:00  Gottcher (10.5) UP

A couple of longshots that caught my eye and who aren’t without a remote chance of sneaking into a place (or better!) are:

Haydock        14:15  All Analena If whatever was amiss LTO is resolved   UP

Newmarket    17:00  Gallagher  If the first time tongue tie and longer distance do the trick UP 

An early season tentative foray into the jumps for me (don't get me wrong - I'm perfectly capable of finding a winner on the jumps cards but am just out of practise after concentrating soley on the flat since April !) has thrown up:

Market Rasen  14:20  Viva Colonia  UP

                          14:50  North Island  UP

Frankel galloping yesterday (Tom Queally)
) Pic: Edward Whitaker / Racing Post )

Away from racing !  Google have let the world know that it's Jim Henson's 75th birthday with a fantastic cartoon on their home page.  This has led to my discovering this website:  http://www.matthewbarr.co.uk/muppets/  where you can take a quiz to find out which muppet you are.  I'm Gonzo!!!

 

 135                     122                    119

       56                       53                   25

Not for staking the house or your daughter on though!

Saturday's Selections & Updates - 10 September

St Leger day is here and all the talk is for Sea Moon (sea sic below!).  I can't help thinking that  the 7/4 he's drifted to at the time of writing is a bit Jimmy Krankie (on the short side) but then again this horse is pure pure quality the way he won the Voligeur by 8 lengths pulling up!  
He's not been riding his best ever over the past week but Fallon on Brown Panther is surely good value for an each way 12/1?  Dascombe/Owen bringing him in for his St Leger experience is in direct contrast to Ballydoyle and (good as he may be) Joseph O'Brien's lack of it.  Aiden would really love Joseph to win a Gr1 in England before he either (a) grows even taller or (b) gets a year long gift card for Maccy D's -  so you have to think they'll have Seville primed to perfection for this.  Talking about experience, Frankie knows how to win this race - 3 wins in 10 years!  Only trouble is that a filly hasn't won this race since 1992 and this will be Blue Bunting's first outing against the opposite sex.
The ground is drying out so will this go against Sea Moon?  Because he's never raced on anything firmer than good doesn't mean that he won't perform on it.  His sire Beat Hollow had no problems on firm ground but his 3 part brother Brian Boru wasn't too keen - I guess unless the heavens open then we'll find out tomorrow.  I can't imagine that Seville will enjoy any firm in the description - a definite negative for him IMO but a big plus for Brown Panther who's performance  I'm not too worried about LTO when he was beaten by Census as he barely had enough time to recover from a hard run Deutsche Derby on heavy ground.  Census however is a classy horse and the Hannon stable are in fine form right now and as long as he doesn't miss the break this time over this longer trip then he will be up there at the end.  
(I reckon that the way Masked Marvel hung left LTO suggests that the distance will be beyond him)
I can't go against Sea Moon for the St Leger - he has the full package so unless he desperately hates any firm in the going (if it dries out further) it has to be:


1/ Sea Moon 7/4 3rd
2/ Census 5/1 UP
3/ Brown Panther 12/1 2nd


My favourite quote of the day has to come from Mahmood Al Zarooni with this about Blue Bunting "If you see her before her races, then you would say that she would have no chance because of her coat - she looks like a hyena...."

This had to go up today !

System selections today are:

Chester

14:00   Sleepy Blue Ocean (6.2) 3rd

Goodwood

15:25   Al Khaleej (9.8) UP

Doncaster

16:15   The Cheka (3.65) UP

Bath

17:00   Maydream (4.7) 1st 

Kempton

18:25   Queenie’s Star (5.9) 2nd

Off the cold list at last with a winner and a couple of places.  Slight loss of  0.30

Curragh 6f races - 18 of the last 25 winners have been drawn high (72%)

In the only 6f race today at 14:40 the 1st (Born To Sea 5/2) & 2nd (Pearl In The Sand 10/1) both came from a high draw 

This one's for Francesca @riosrider !

Spot the Difference!!

William Buick will be aboard Masked Marvel in the St Leger.  Funnily enough for once I am glad to see that he's not riding Nationalism in the 14:20 Goodwood - he's never won on him and just doesn't seem to get on with this particular horse!


In future, just bet on whichever horse I have picture featured....they almost always win regardless.  Must be subliminal messaging.......

125                       109                  107

       56                         50                   24

Friday's Selections & Results - 09 September

A day off on Thursday to pine for my Vinnie who sadly had to be put to sleep on Wednesday night.  Picking horses when tired and emotional is never a clever idea I have found!  

It was nice of Laytown to arrange to have their annual race meeting on my birthday this year.  Next year it would be even nicer to watch them from this rented cottage on Laytown beach that gives you these views:

Joseph O'Brien has finally admitted what we all could have told him - that his future will lie over jumps.  I think he'll find that his future will lie in training however!  At 5ft 11" he's done impressively well to keep his weight down to around 9st to ride on the flat - all credit where it's due.  I could quite easily be 2 jockeys one day (ice cream being an extremely effective nicotine replacement therapy!).  

After writing a potted biography on Julie Krone a couple of weeks ago on here, I cannot believe that I didn't back her ride in the Legends race on Wednesday!  About sums up my week so far! 

System selections today are:  

Doncaster

15:35  Mizwaaj 2^nd

Sandown

15:55  Orientalist UP

Chester

16:50  Gobooll UP

Wolverhampton

17:10  Almaty Express UP

Still on the cold list with loss of -5!!

A big thanks for all the birthday wishes on RUK forum yesterday (Thursday).  Saxonbody (Christine) started a thread to cheer me up as she knew about Vinnie and that he had been a birthday present from 8 years previous (poignant timing).  It did cheer me up and felt like this

         124                        108                      106               

Paul Hanagan raced ahead even further on Wednesday with a 4 timer (he shares the same birthday as me today!).  Can't see this order above changing very much now!  Fallon clawed one back today but Silvestre hasn't had a winner since the 03 September!!  

         56                         50                     24

15:55  Orientalist (7.6) UP

Chester

16:50  Gobooll (4.1)

Wolverhampton

17:10  Almaty Express (7.4)

Saturday’s Selections & Results (20 August)

Don't arm wrestle this woman!

It was fantastic to see Hayley Turner win her second Group1 yesterday on Margot Did – surely, if there are any still out there who doubt a woman’s strength in a finish then this should put paid any doubts?  I’d like to see one or two of the naysayers take on a jockey who happens to be a jockey (I’ve banned myself from using the term “female jockey”) in an arm wrestling contest!

Today is the last day of the Ebor Festival and I’ve managed just 6 winner so I’ve work to do -  but for now here are Saturday system Selections:

York

15:05     Opinion Poll (4.4) 1st 

17:20     Thirteen Shivers (7.8)

Sandown

15:55     Drift and Dream (10) UP

17:35     Aerial Acclaim (5) 2^nd

Chester

16:45     My Kingdom (15) UP


Small loss of -0.6 today :(

York

My picks for York require a magnificent effort from Frankie today (I have faith that his leg was hurting after that kick he received from Mountain Hiker on Thursday and that all Godolphin’s three runners yesterday coming LAST was an aberration never to be repeated.  I have enough faith that I’ve put a Canadian on all his rides today (most are covered with singles bets too)

14:00     Debenhams City Of York Stakes (Listed) 3yo plus, 7f, Class 1

Yaa Wayl won this last year for Michael Jarvis and now with Bin Suroor.  He’s popped over to Meydan over winter to run in a couple of (out of his league) races there before returning to the UK to win LTO at Newbury.  He shouldn’t disgrace himself (famous last words!)

Yaa Wayl             7/1 each way UP

14:30     Betfred Melrose Handicap 3yo only, 1m 6f, Class 2

Difficult one this!  The money is there for Communicator after some positive words from the trainer this morning.  The Bell/Turner combo is not too be dismissed lightly at the moment and he has a lot going for him.  Lyric Street is primed to do well and Cumani has a good record here with his 3yo – the same cannot be said for Fallon though who hasn’t won a 3yo race here at York in the past 5 years (19 runs) and this is enough to put me off.  I like Thubiaan (Haggas) but I have a problem with the jockey!  The extra 2f shouldn’t be a problem and he’s carrying less weight than he ever has.  I have to mention Apache (my husband’s method of selecting runners is to look for any with a cowboys & Indians name!) and he won his maiden at Leopardstown in impressive style and you can forget the Ascot run LTO when he was hampered and stumbled, never to recover.  Dare I suggest that Joseph may not be the most experienced pilot for this big field?  Eventually, I opted for Parlour Games who should relish the step up in trip and is fine on good or good to soft.  He won nicely LTO in a decent race at Ascot (beating Halifax that day) and this is the first time Frankie has race-ridden him so that has to be a plus.

Parlour Games                  12/1 each way 1st

15:05     Weatherbys Insurance Lonsdale Cup 3yo plus, 2m 88y, Class 1 (Group 2)

I’ve looked for something drawn high here with proven stamina and landed on yet another Godolphin runner (there’s more yet !) with Opinion Poll.  His 2^nd at Ascot in June on good/soft shows that he’ll have enough in his tank at the end to make his move (he’s an out and out hold up horse) and nick this on the line!

Opinion Poll      10/3 win 1st

15:40     Betfred Ebor 3yo plus, 1m 6f, Class 2

Saptapadi has the widest draw but this race has been won from a car park start before (Hugs Dancer 2002, Mediterranean 2001, Sergeant Cecil 2005, Dirar last year) so this needn’t be the impediment it might be and in fact, looking back at the previous winners it could even be an advantage.  Saptapadi will be held up for sure so will need luck in running as ever in such a big field but the fact that Fallon asked for the ride means a great deal.  Lost In The Moment is drawn next to him and someone I know has been throwing money at this one £ by £ over the past 2 weeks .  I have to put some on myself! 

Saptapadi                         7/1 each way UP

Lost In The Moment       7/1 each way UP

16:15     Julia Graves Roses Stakes (Listed) 5f, Class 1 2yo

This was an easy pick for me My Propeller was pulled out of a race a few days ago (I would have been on and the official reason given was the ground which was good and which she has won on before) and so I would suggest connection have high hopes and  saved her  for this one.  She was hopelessly outclassed in a group 2 LTO and would be much more suited to this.

My Propeller     9/2 1st 

16:50     Betfred Bonus King Nursery 1m, Class 2 2yo

There is a marked draw bias over a mile here with low draws having the advantage.  All those drawn 1-5 look to be in with a shout.  None have eyecatching entries so looking at the trainers and jockeys success rates here with 2yo, I’ve narrowed it down to the Fahey, Hill & Hannon trio.  Self Centred is off (Michael Hill rides!) and so what would appear to be Hannon’s second string, Wolfgang and Holy Roman Warrior are the two left on the shortlist.  Neither should be inconvenienced by a step up to a mile or the ground.  Holy Roman Warrior was the costlier and looks to have the middle distance breeding that isn’t apparent in Wolgang so he’s my tenuous selection.

Holy Roman Warrior      7/2 UP

17:20     tyregiant.com Handicap 3yo only, 5f, Class 2

This was another easy pick for me with Thirteen Shivers.  C&D winner who has won on both good to soft and good to firm so the going isn’t an issue.  Mick Easterby  and Graham Gibbons both do well with the 3yo races here and with a super low weight I think Thirteen Shivers is ahead of the handicapper here!  It would be nice to see this local trainer win the last race of the festival in what could be his last before retirement (but then again the only thing stopping Mick Easterby from training might be his invite to pass through the pearly gates!)

Thirteen Shivers              13/2 UP