Showing posts with label St Leger. Show all posts
Showing posts with label St Leger. Show all posts

Saturday, 15 September 2012

The Magical Leger Ledger Blog

I have neglected this blog for quite some time while other demands have been taking up my time but have been inspired to put fingertips to keypad (pen to paper is so last century!) on this day that Camelot is vying to win the St Leger and become the first Triple Crown winner since Nijinsky back in 1970.  

Nijinsky was trained by Aiden namesake and previous Ballydoyle occupant, indeed founder Vincent O'Brien (no relation to Aiden) and was ridden by an equally long jockey, Lester Piggott.  My son (borderline autistic when it comes to working out relationships!) has pointed out that Nijinsky is Camelot's great uncle.  As a point of interest, the name Camelot was registered by Coolmore for ten years before they found the right horse to fit the name.  



Aiden has been quoted as saying "We've kept things simple since his Irish Derby win.  Joseph will just let him relax and see what unfolds."  Upon reading this, I was quoted as saying "Poppycock!  No Way!  Cojones!" (or at least the English version).  His preparation may have been simple but I cannot believe there is any way on this earth that Joseph will leave stall seven off without having been given riding instructions detailed to the last exact and precise inch!

The usually reserved  and restrained chaps at Timeform have pronounced Camelot to be a "certainty" (brave words there chaps!) and the bookies are offering no more than 1/2.  Johnny Murtagh believes he has a chance aboard Ursa Major (Johnny owns the stables that the trainer Thomas Carmoody operates from) but from the other runners' connections, you'll hear nothing more positive than "maybe", "perhaps", "with luck we might possibly manage a place".

If (when?) he wins the Leger, Camelot's worth as a stallion will reach dizzy "fee private" heights and a visit with him may well become the Holy Grail for breeders.  

*insert collective groan here*

So the challenge I see for the St Leger this year is in selecting the forecast and I have a liking for both Ursa Major who has proven himself over this distance and has a group win under his belt, and also Main Sequence who looked to be crying out for the extra distance when second to Thought Worthy last time out.  I shall be watching with mere pennies invested though.

UPDATE:  My heart goes out to Joseph O'Brien.  I have been hard on him in the past but I don't think today's defeat was jockey error alone - Camelot just didn't pick up as expected.  Seeing how things unfold obviously doesn't work!


Away from Doncaster, there is some good racing at Chester.  I was looking at all the races late last night when I received an email from a friend of my daughter who asked if I had any loss prevention advice.  I gave  him the heads up on Dr Marwan Koukash - although with 17 runners there today (this total may be down a tad due to a NRs) picking his winners today will be a bit more difficult - but winners he will surely have.  

The low draw is widely known to be a huge advantage at Chester but there are some distances where this really doesn't make quite the vast difference that is generally percieved (5f 110y and 7f 122y).  Franny Norton at Chester is worth about 7lb in my mind and he rides Storm Moon from the outside stall 8.  This means that the price is a tasty but fearless 9/1.

Below is a Racing Post summary of the last runner that Franny Norton rode to victory from an outside stall at Chester......


So there you have it!  Franny Norton is a magician......we shall rename him Merlin for the day.



Since today is the last time we will see Camelot race, I make no apology for putting up this video for the third time this year (it's brilliant!):






Tuesday, 6 September 2011

Wednesday's Selections - 07 September

Doncaster 14:00 7f, Class 2 Arena Structures Nursery 2yo
Hannon has two runners in this.  We like Hannon 2yos!  It would appear at first glance that Richard Hughes has chosen to ride Magic City (and he may have) but I'm more inclined to think that it's more a case of using Kieren O'Neills 3lb claim on Wolfgang - this 3lbs could make the difference and he is already a C&D winner with a decent draw.  Andrew Tinkler is an owner with many horses and I'm sure that if he wanted it then Hughes would be up so I'm going to take a chance that I'd interpreted this right.  The big danger in my opinion is Ghostwriting (5/1)  who's had a nice rest and chance to strengthen up for this but I'll stick with Wolfgang!
Wolfgang  8/1 UP

Doncaster 14:35 6f, Class 2 Napoleons Sheffield Conditions Stakes 2yo
Easy for me this one!  Gold City!  A half length 2nd place in a listed race LTO carrying less weight and with the plum draw and Frankie up in a small (=tactical) field race.
Gold City  9/4 2nd

Doncaster 15:10 5f, Class 1 Listed Scarborough Stakes 2yo+
Given the huge draw advantage, I won't even look at anything drawn 8 or above (only 9.52% winners from high draw).  No 2 or 3 yo has won in the past 10 years so Bear Behind and Dinkum Diamond don't look to have a great chance from the stats (2yo). 
Anne Of Kiev has won twice on turf and eight times of AW.  Luke Morris knows her well and as long as the gaps are there, she could run well. 
I think Medicean Man and Humidor are biting off more than they can chew with this race.
Captain Dunne has a great draw for a front runner and wasn't disgraced in the Nunthorpe (7th) - if he had dropped a couple of lbs then I'd be putting as much of my house as I could afford on (maybe the chimney pot).  David Allen rides (ridden 6 of his 7 wins) and even with the joint/shared top weight I'll take him to go straight to the front and stay there!
Captain Dunne   5/1 UP


Day one of the St Leger Festival today and depending on who you choose to believe, Doncaster is in for: 
  1. light showers (BBC)
  2. heavy rain showers from 1pm (Met Office)
  3. light rain in the afternoon (Yahoo)
  4. 20% chance of precipitation (Weather Channel)
  5. temperatures of 85˚ and pink fluffy unicorns dancing on rainbows (fantasy channel)
At the moment the going is good to firm but it looks as though there may well be some good in that description after lunch.



Dreadful today with a loss of -6.  This can only mean that the good luck will all come along at once sometime over the next week or so!


Doncaster
16:20          Fallen Idol (3.95) UP

Carlisle
17:00          Syncopated Lady (6.8) UP

Kempton
19:20          Catchanova (5) UP
19:50          Enriching (8.6) UP
19:50           Suzhou (12) UP
20:50           Waltzing Cat (3.4) 2nd 





Here's a couple of fascinating facts about Carlisle!!  

  • 7 of the last 17 winners over 6f 192y have been drawn in the middle 20% (over twice the number you'd expect). 
  • 7 of the last 7 winners of 7f 200y races have been trained by one of the trainers who have top 3 strike rate for that age group!  Ventura Spirit won the 14:45 trained by Fahey (in top3 of 2yo trainers here)
  • Carlisle had the first theatre that was lit by electricity. 

One of those interesting facts should make us money!!




After Monday's success with my review (non system) selections I will be putting one or two of these up as well - they may well be later morning or even as late as early afternoon so check back if you don't see these up yet!

120                   107                 106
                         56                         50                       23                       







Vinnie is spending another night at the vets and we're hoping he'll be back home tomorrow.  He has to prove to the rubber glove man that he can pee without a catheter first!