Cheltenham Festival Day 2

Well four winners from six races on the first day isn't to be sniffed at!  The Mullins stable is in great shape this year and with a treble on the first day, you've got to think that Ruby is set to regain leading rider this year.  

It was great to see Hurricane Fly regain his crown and the money came for him early morning then much more so time in the 10- minutes leading up to the race.  If you'd glanced at the RP commentary for the result though, you would have seen this on the right.  Some technology needs tweaking perhaps...!

My daughter is waiting on Sam Winner (Pertemps Thursday) to complete an each way 7-fold  accumulator which has the aforementioned four winners and 2 places in the bank so far.  There's one horse that I'll be screaming home and hope will repay her faith in me!

Back to Wednesday and fingers crossed for the 08:00 inspection in the morning.  Of course the weather wouldn't have been so unwelcoming if I had been going this year!!!  With a total of 120 runners in the seven races today, we'll be very lucky to find four winners again but we'll give it our best shot.

13:30

John Oaksey National Hunt Chase (Amateur Riders Novices’ Chase)

4m  Class 2

Last Year’s winner:         Teaforthree  (5/1f)

Last years NH Chase winner Teaforthree

The stats worked well enough yesterday for the first race so I’m not about to fix what isn’t broken!

In this race my pick MUST have been in the first four last time out and must have run between 4 and 8 times since last August.  This narrows down the field quite nicely to five:

Buddy Bolero

Drawn N Drank

Emperor’s Choice

Godsmejedge

Tofino Bay  

Of these, we want a horse priced at between 9/1 and 40/1 which (at this stage) puts a line through Buddy Bolero.

Most winners of this race have run just 3-4 times over fences and have earned a hurdles RPR of 125+ which takes us to Drawn N Drank - which also happens to tick my final trends box which suggests a 7yo is most likely to win. 

This is a huge price from a very decent stable with an accomplished rider booking but all his best form in heavy ground and he has very little chasing experience.  But if Enda Bolger is sending him to run in this then you have to think that he can jump and all in all he makes for an intriguing runner.

The other two from the short list which catch my eye are Tofino Bay (down hugely in class) and Emperor’s Choice (proven stamina).  Tofino Bay was doing his best work at the end when winning at Naas in January and with Nina booked and the Hughes stable in form, this shuffles up to the top of my list.

Win Prediction:      Tofino Bay             (9/1)  2nd 

Each Way Value:     Drawn N Drank      (50/1) UP (but still intriguing or should that be puzzling?)

14:05       

Neptune Novice Hurdle

2m5f  Class 1 Grade1

Last Year’s winner:          Simonsig  (2/1f)

Ruby has been making some positive noises about Pont Alexandre and you have to take notice after yesterday, so this is my pick for the Neptune.  Looking for some each way value, Two Rockers seems a big price for a horse who has never been beaten (and this includes a grade 2 at Haydock).  I can see another 3 serious runners who could finish ahead of him but if one of them underperforms then he has a live chance of placing .

Win Prediction:     Pont Alexandre      (6/4)    3rd

Each Way Value:    Two Rockers          (16/1) UP

14:40

RSA Chase

3m 110y  Class 1 Grade 1

Last Year’s winner:          Bob’s Worth  (9/2)

Unioniste made hard work of winning a class 3 last time out but this could easily have been because of the absence of any decent pace – which shouldn’t be happening here.  Boston Bob has equally impressive credentials but you have to assume that Ruby could have his pick!   A quick run through my stats has thrown up Vintage Star as a  pick for the place money.  He will have had to brush up on his jumping but has some speed about him and should stay on up the hill – stranger things have happened than a 66/1 shot placing at the Festival!

Win Prediction:      Unioniste     (7/2)  UP

Each Way Value:         Vintage Star (66/1)  UP

15:20

Queen Mother Champion Chase

2m  Class 1 Grade 1

Last Year’s winner:          Finian’s Rainbow  (4/1)

Sprinter Sacre will win this ....no more discussion! 

Win Prediction:      Sprinter Sacre        (3/10)  1st

16:00

Coral Cup

2m 5f  Class 1 Grade 3

Last Year’s winner:          Son of Flicka  (16/1)

This is a race that lends itself to a stats assault!  Immediately I’ve narrowed the field down to six by dismissing any runner that didn’t win last time out and that hasn’t had at least 2 runs this season.  The six are:

Abbey Lane

Buck Magic

Ericht

Master Of The Sea

Medinas

Mr Watson   

On the back of yesterday’s performances, the eye is immediately drawn to Abbey Lane with the Mullins/Walsh combo but can you believe that neither has won this race in the past ten years?  The next step along the trends trail is that we want our winner to have won a hurdles race in a class 3 or better – this sees off Ericht.

Finally I have a note we want our pick to be carrying between 9-12 and 11-12 with a preference for less than 11st.  This would leave just Buck Magic who will make a wonderful each way pick and is coming in to this on the back of a very recent win which was needed to get into this race.  He’s jumping up in class somewhat but seems to have had a renaissance since moving to Neil Mulholland (change of scenery?). He has few miles on the clock and Michael Byrne’s 3lb claim could prove crucial up that hill. 

Meister Eckhart didn’t disgrace himself at all last year in the Albert Bartlett under the same jockey, Aiden Coleman.  This being 3f shorter and a couple of grades ‘easier’ may suit him better and I can see him running a big race.

Win Prediction:        Meister Eckhart     (16/1)  2nd

Each Way Value:            Buck Magic            (25/1)     UP

16:40

Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle

2m110y  Class 1 Grade 3

Last Year’s winner:          Une Artist  (40/1)

Jonjo (and JP!) like to target these big handicaps and Another Sensation would look as though he may have been bought with this specifically in mind.  The two listed hurdles that he ran in France in were on heavy and very soft ground and his breeding looks as though he needs less testing ground.  Rather a leap into the unknown but I’m hoping the clues are there!

Pistol was an expensive flat horse (£110K ex Stoute) and his hurdles form reads 2-1-1.  This is either sink or swim as he’s never ran in such a large field but he seems to have the ability to grab some place money.

  

Win Prediction:      Another Sensation (14/1)   UP

Each Way Value:     Pistol                     (25/1)  UP

17:15

Champion Bumper

2m110y  Class 1 Grade 1

Last Year’s winner:          Champagne Fever  (16/1)

You have to respect a Willie Mullins bumper runners and of his trio, Patrick rides Union Dues who has a grade 2 at Navan under his belt and doesn't seem to at all ground dependant.  Of the rest, Blackmail has relatively more experience than many running here and looks to be oozing stamina.  I can’t see either still being offered at these prices in the morning!

  

Win Prediction:      Union Dues   (8/1)  UP

Each Way Value:    Blackmail    (10/1)  UP

NB:  Selections on this site will be different to those on sister site SpeedyEquines. This is down to the two different selection techniques used - with these on here being more considered and subjective!  It is best to stick with one or the other - perhaps look at the results on each for the first few races/day then make a choice?  

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