Cheltenham Festival Day 1

The Stage Is Set

Sadly, events have conspired to stop me being there this year for the first time since 2010 but I shall be there in spirit!

I was desperately looking the advantages of this and the one that I can think of is that my delicate senses will be saved from sights like this on the right.  The other is that I have more time for this blog! 

There will be write-ups together with thoughts (random and logical!) and observations on other races but there will be selections for all.  I also promise that I am trying very very hard not to let my heart rule by blindly putting up Peddler's Cross as my picks for the World Hurdle ... I shall manage to find some justification and a supporting argument however tenuous it may be (you have been forewarned!) 

13:30

Supreme Novice Hurdle

2m 110y Class 1 Grade 1

Last Year’s winner:          Cinders And Ashes (10/1)

The last time a favourite won this race was in 2004 (Brave Inca).  The last time a winner went off at single figures was 2006 (Noland).

Having narrowed down the field by putting a line through the runners who haven’t won last time out in the past 55 days (14 of the past 15 winners have) this leaves us with just two remaining runners now that Melodic Rendezvous is a NR: 

Champagne Fever  

Un Atout  

Both of whom are Willie Mullins trained!

Taking this to the next level, 10 of the last 11 winners had their prep race in the last 45 days so we can draw a line through Un Atout.

Which leaves us with Champagne Fever

The fly in the statistical ointment is that now Melodic Rendezvous is out, Champagne Fever has shortened up to a single figure price (see opening paragraph above for stats about this) but this isn't enough to dissuade me.  Looking elsewhere for a value selection,  Puffin Billy could be better than he’s shown thus far (he was 9l behind Melodic Rendezvous last time out then found to have had a foot injury) with the advantage of the more juice in the ground the better he'll go!

Win Prediction:      Champagne Fever     8/1  1st

Each Way Value:     Puffin Billy              14/1  UP (5th)

14:05

Arkle Chase

2m Class 1 Grade 1

Last Year’s winner:          Sprinter Sacre  (8/11f)

If ever there was a horse this week that would win by half a circuit if powered by public support alone then it’s Overturn.  Everyone loves him!  Sadly, his he's not so keen on getting his hooves damp and his love of front-running is enough to persuade me to wholeheartedly stick with my antepost pick Simonsig.

Win Prediction:      Simonsig                8/13  1st

14:40

JLT Specialty Handicap Chase

3m110y Class 1 Grade 3

Last Year’s winner:          Alfie Sherrin  (14/1)

Our Mick is almost certain to go off favourite for this but I’m not convinced of his stamina  for this 3 miles on soft going here at Cheltenham.  Add to that his propensity for mistakes over jumps and I’m very wary and looking elsewhere.  Fruity O’Rooney looks a thorough stayer, passing tired horses last time out (here over 21f on heavy) and I would expect to see him racing prominently and staying there at the end. 

Win Prediction:      Fruity O’Rooney              11/1  UP (5th)

Each Way Value:    Monkerty Tunkerty           16/1  UP (7th)

Champion Hurdle

2m110y Class 1 Grade 1

Last Year’s winner:                    Rock On Ruby  (11/1)

Grandouet is off the winners' shortlist as he hasn’t seen a racecourse in 89 days and Henderson’s record with runners back from a break of 66 days or more is a disappointing 0/46.  However, if the 9 runners line up then he’s just about tempting enough at an ew price.  Hurricane Fly has run five times on soft ground and has won five times on soft ground and although he won here on good, he should be a lot happier on the ground today.

                                                                                             

Win Prediction:      Hurricane Fly        9/4    1st

Each Way Value:     Grandouet             8/1   Fell

16:00

Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase        Postponed until Thurday 17:15

3m7f  Class 2

Last Year’s winner:          Balthazar King (11/2)

Until last year, Irish trainers have had a stranglehold on this race – none more so than Willie Mullins and Enda Bolger.  The trends suggest that I should be looking for an Irish trained runner, aged 8-12 years, in the top three of the betting but not the antepost favourite( Arabella Boy) and who has form here or at Punchestown.  This leaves Outlaw Pete and Uncle Junior both ticking every box!  Top weight has only won twice in the past ten years which asks a question of Uncle Junior.  Outlaw Pete on the other hand sets off carrying over a stone less which is good enough for me!  

Win Prediction:      Outlaw Pete             5/1           

Each Way Value:     Sizing Australia       14/1

16:40

OLBG Mare’s Hurdle

2m4f  Class 1 Grade 2

Last Year’s winner:          Quevega  (4/7f)

…...and before that and before that and before that again

The big question is can Quevega come back from 11 months off the track and win at her age now?  I have my doubts …and odds on is far too skinny a price to take that chance in my opinion.  I think this may be the year for a fresh set of legs to take the prize.  Une Artiste would seem to be the biggest threat BUT the 0/46 stat quoted above would appear to say nope … or (shock horror!) the stats are about to be smashed?

I really like Kentford Grey Lady in this.  She loves it at Cheltenham and the stable are just kicking in to gear now.  I can’t bet against Quevega as she is so classy but I can’t bet for her at this price so I shall just have the one each way in this.

Win Prediction:       Quevega (no bet)               4/6  1st

Each Way Value:      Kentford Grey Lady         10/1  UP (7th)

17:15

Rewards4racing Novices’ Handicap Chase

2m4f110y  Class 1 Listed

Last Year’s winner:          Hunt Ball  (13/2f)

I’ve been looking for a lucky 7yo here!  Shangani has been running very well this season and is perfectly capable of a hat trick here.  Restless Harry is sent out in first time blinkers and it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that his stamina can help him tear off and make all over this shorter than usual trip.

Win Prediction:      Shangani                  8/1   4th

Each Way Value:    Restless Harry         50/1   Last one home.....locking up

NB:  Selections on this site will be different to those on sister site SpeedyEquines. This is down to the two different selection techniques used - with these on here being more considered and subjective!  It is best to stick with one or the other - perhaps look at the results on each for the first few races/day then make a choice? 

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