Sandiuk - Horseracing Chit Chat, Musings, Gossip & Reviews: Cheltenham Festival

Showing posts with label Cheltenham Festival. Show all posts

Friday, 13 March 2015

The Triskaidekaphobia Seagull & Sandwich Gold Cup Blog

Triskaidekaphobia is not just a retired racehorse!

Since this week so far I've had about as much luck as a sandwich at a seagull convention, the fact that it's Friday the 13th holds no fear for me today.

13:30 Triumph Hurdle

Hargam is my selection for this first race to give AP another Festival win. Peace and Co is the antepost and SP favourite but only 2 have won in the past 10 years and AP riding for Nicky Henderson this year has resulted in 10 wins from 14 runs. Hargam is a CD winners on good to soft and (naturally being McManus owned) AP was up for both his GB wins. Such strong stats cannot be ignored and at the current 7/1, this is a super each way bet

14:05 Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle
This race tends to go to an Irish trained winner (there's a surprise!) and it is quite possible that we might see a McManus 1-2-3 over the line here. Princely Conn (AP) probably could have done without the rain but otherwise would be a very strong contender. The second McManus runner, Waxies Dargle loves rain but his fall last time out isn't what you want to see before a Cheltenham race as his confidence may well have take a knock. Sort It Out is my selection. If anything, he'd like more rain still and has an abundance of stamina to tackle the hill with ......and he sneaks in at the bottom of the weights.

14:40 Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle (aka the potato race!)
I've looked for a progressive horse for my selection in this race (highest RPR on the last two starts) and plenty of proven stamina. My shortlist comprises of Black Hercules, Caracci Apache, Martello Tower and Thomas Brown. All four will be perfectly happy on the ground. Thomas Brown is probably not classy enough when the chips are down. Martello Tower looks to be short on grit in a finish and possibly needs 2-3lb off before winning again. Caracci Apache was doing his best work at the finish when winning his trial at Doncaster and showed he is as game as you like to win that. Black Hercules has been targeted for this and Ruby will likely ride him like he stole him and if he can handle the 11-7 has the best chance here. The big Q is if he can handle the extra 7lb so I'm hedging here with Black Hercules to win and Carraci Apache each way.

15:20 Gold Cup
My best boy Silviniaco Conti is mature enough this year to do himself justice. I saw him run at Haydock beating Long Run in the 2012 Betfair Chase and immediately marked him down as a Gold Cup horse. I think he will win! However, the stats say that the chances of a horse losing one year then going on the win the next is rare so I have taken a look aroundy for insurance. It would be a dream result for AP to win aboard Carlingford Lough but he isn't the most natural jumper which is doesn't help here! Many Clouds and Road To Riches both have decent claims with some graded race wins under their belts. So if Silviniaco Conti doesn't do himself justice today then Many Clouds with his course form slightly edges it for me

16:00 Foxhunter Chase

The amateur riders Gold Cup!

Ex Paul Nicholls horse Current Event is my selection for his race. He's a 8yo who was rated 141 at his peak and has been running around the country collection P2P wins recently. Bryony Frost (Hadden's sister and Jimmy's daughter) is an accomplished and experienced rider so it would be wonderful to see a female jockey win this cup.

16:40 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Hurdle
The stats suggest looking for a 5 or 6 year old carrying 11-2 or more....so a relatively inexperienced horse as well as rider! That man Mullins has won this twice in the past four years and he runs three in this race - two for Gigginstown. I am bypassing Roi Des Frances (fav) in favour of Grade 1 winner McKinley who has far classier credentials and is apparently happy on any ground.

17:15 A.P. McCoy Grand Annual Chase
I think AP has chosen wrong here! There was some chat earlier in the week that he may jump ship and get on Eastlake. AP has ridden hold up horse Ned Buntline four times and the best he could get out of him was a couple of 3rds. Paul Carberry who is an excellent hold up rider is riding Eastlake who needs to be ridden prominently. Makes no sense!
Meanwhile, course form is hugely important at this distance and Triumph winner Grumeti certainly has that. It's a big ask for such a young horse but he has taken to chasing and Alan King will have made certain of plenty of schooling after his iffy jumping at Sandown in January. The first time blinkers can help long time partner Wayne Hutchinson over the line in front.

Same time next year folks and be lucky x

Wednesday, 11 March 2015

My Champions Day at Cheltenham with OLBG & Annie Springsteen

As a member of OLBG online sports betting community, I was lucky enough to receive a ticket for the first day of the Festival in one of their many ticket giveaways

that they have alongside the numerous free to enter competitions. With the ticket offer came an invitation to join other members and staff in the box for the OLBG Mares Hurdle.

On my journey down to Cheltenham, I knew I was in for a good day when cruising along the outside lane at 80mph (I jest of course!!) I spotted some silly BMW motorist had left his red Christmas fairy lights in place behind his radiator. These had caught the sunlight as the car was setting off from the hard shoulder. Naturally, at this point I slowed down and changed lanes so the two men in suits could have a good look at what a Cheltenham race-goer looks like as they drove past!

I can't say I'm a religious person at all but the view of Cheltenham racecourse in the sun does tend to make you ponder the thought that if He exists then he must love horse racing to have created such a space as this:

I walked into the grounds behind Katy Walsh (feeling a little like Miranda Hart walking behind tiny Kylie) and located box 4052 which was next door to the Gigginstown House Stud EasyBox.

On arrivaI,I was welcomed by Darren with a drink and yummy lunch while swapping thoughts and tips with the other like-minded members and staff. As we now know, Willie and Ruby won the first two races with Ruby going on to win another one and Willie another two. Definitely a day for the Irish and not for the bookies!

At 3.50pm, we followed the leader down to the paddock for the Mares Hurdle .....I never did find out who the leader was so we just followed the OLBG scarves ahead of us. I was one of a number invited into the paddock with the owners and trainers and was totally and utterly delighted to be asked to choose the best turned out in the Mares Hurdle (Polly Peachum) and to present the envelope to the lad who looks after her.

I then dashed course side in anticipation of watching my best girl Annie Power win and quite literally bumped into Rick Ricci on his way to the owner & trainers viewing area - having met him a Doncaster, he quite possible now thinks he has the worlds clumsiest stalker. I watched the race with my heart in my mouth as Annie Power always seems to fluff the last hurdle in her races and this time was no different except she threw in her best Bruce Springsteen impression and slid on her knees before crumpling over. Disaster!

At this point my eyes were squeezed shut so I didn't her get to her feet and canter off or L'Unique come down behind her and stay down. I watched in fear as I saw the green screens put up around the stricken 'Annie' then the crowd cheered as the mare rose to her feet. Thankfully both horses and jockeys were unhurt and a fellow OLBG-er put me right on who was who.

Back to the paddock then to watch the winner Glen's Melody come back into the winners enclosure. I got to shake Willie Mullins handand congratulate him on the day and finally meet Twitter buddy @RiosRider2 Fran who was taking a far better photographs than these of mine. A double whammy!

After a glass of champagne with the delighted owners, we all watched the remaining two races back in box 4052. J P McManus finally got his 64th birthday win with Cause Of Causes but I'm still waiting for my McManus 2nd string theory to be proved right! Thankfully my day's poor selecting was somewhat offset by backing a couple that I liked the looks of on the way to post (The Druids Nephew to win and Arctic Fire each way).

I have to say that whoever came up with the OLBG colour scheme did a sterling job as it really stands out. Next move must surely be horse ownership to carry those colours?

I said my thank you's and goodbyes and joined the queue in the ~~field~~ car park to set off home, passing a line of 4 merry racegoers 'watering' the hedge (no photo of that or I might have been arrested or thumped!).

I was entertained on the journey home with the thought that even my TomTom is a OLBG fan with the same colours..see?

Many thanks for all involved in a fantastic day out and I hope that anyone reading this who may have been unsure about joining the friendly OLBG community (no £££ is requested or extracted, it's just given away!) or applying for free members' race tickets shouldn't hesitate for a second

Monday, 9 March 2015

The Roar, Game of Thrones and Annie (Cheltenham Festival Day 1)

Like any fan of horseracing, I watch, read and listen as much as I find about my favourite sport and animals until my eyes, ears and brain ache - the information seeps into the old organic hard drive and I like to think that it helps me make informed decisions about who will win the race

However, the heart can sometimes step in and reroute said information to the extent that if anyone was to rationally argue with me that Annie Power or Silviniaco Conti will be beaten (these being my favourites horses in training) then I can selectively become deaf, blind and very very stupid. You have been warned!
This is where the black & white of statistics and trends come into their own and throw a cloak of objectivity over the process - so I collect them and use them where possible

I am delighted to be able to spend Tuesday (in my mind the best of the four days of racing) in the OLBG box so I will take my portable sound & picture ornament out of its cover, clean the lens and become the David Bailey of Prestbury Park for the day (readers under 40 may need to google David Bailey...)

So back to the Day 1 selections:

13:30

Supreme Novices Hurdle

L'Ami Surge is my pick for the opener. He didn't like the smelly French hurdles at all but since moving to Seven Barrow's he has not lost a hurdles race once. This includes a couple of graded races at Sandown and Ascot so we can be sure he
has the stamina required for this course. Nicky Henderson is coming in the Festival in form with 40% strike rate for the past fortnight so he may give that Mullins man a run for the trainers title this year!

14:05

Arkle Chase

Vibrato Valtat Antepost favourites have a shocking record in this race although Simonsig and Sprinter Sacre, both odds-on Nicky Henderson/Barry Geraghty runners have done the job in the past 10 years. Willie Mullins has never won this race and the last time Ruby won a chase at the Festival was on Kauto Star in 2009 (you can check, it's right!). However good he may be, Un De Sceaux is a very short price so I have looked for something that can be backed each way (just about!). Vibrato Valtat has course form along with a liking for ground with the word soft in and Paul Nichols thinks he's a progressive horse and with his breathing problems a thing of the past, he has a very decent chance for the price.

14:40

Festival Handicap Chase

Ned Stark This isn't a race I'm hugely interested in but if I was given a free bet then it would be on big Ned Stark who has had this race targeted and showed some real grit and character to win his race at Wetherby last time out.

15:20

Champion Hurdle

Faugheen is a machine! Hurricane Fly has a special place in everyone's hearts but I think his best is behind him now sadly. This is going to be a fascinating race to watch and Jezki and The New One aren't without a very good chance and I think the difference between the top 3/4 here will be the jockey and there's no one who can hurdle up that hill like Ruby.

16:00 OLBG Mares Hurdle

Annie Power ('nuff said!)

16:40 National Hunt Chase

Very Wood 4 miles around Prestbury Park needs a horse with an endless supply of stamina but also a jockey who knows the course and had a cool head. Nina Carberry is that man! Very Wood was staying on at the end of 3 miles at Navan last time out without the need for much 'persuasion' at all. As long as his jumping holds together then he has as good a chance as any.

17:15 Novice Handicap Chase

Thomas Crapper / Horizontal Speed I admit to being unable to make my mind up between these two. Horizontal Speed is the stats horse of the two but Thomas Crapper has been showing plenty and is turning into as good a chaser as he was hurdler. I shall be on TC to win (if he sticks his neck out - see below!) with HS each way.

GOOD LUCK !

Friday, 14 March 2014

Double Centuries & Gold Cups

AP McCoy is chasing his 200th win of the season today and it would be very fitting if he could do it on board Triolo D'Alene in the Gold Cup. I would give that one an each way chance but is going to be looking for underperformances from both Bob's Worth and Silviniaco Conti.

I was hoping to go down to the course early this morning to watch the runners gallop but looking out of the window when the alarm sounded, the fog wasn't allowing it. It took a while to clear yesterday!

A profitable day yesterday so here's hoping for a repeat performance:

13:30

triumph hurdle 2m 1f Class 1 Grade 1

2013 Winner: our conor

Win	Guitar Pete
Next Best	Calipto
Each Way	Adriana Des Mottes