The Roar, Game of Thrones and Annie (Cheltenham Festival Day 1)

Like any fan of horseracing, I watch, read and listen as much as I find about my favourite sport and animals until my eyes, ears and brain ache  - the information seeps into the old organic hard drive and I like to think that it helps me make informed decisions about who will win the race

However, the heart can sometimes step in and reroute said information to the extent that if anyone was to rationally argue with me that Annie Power or Silviniaco Conti will be beaten (these being my favourites horses in training) then I can selectively become deaf, blind and very very stupid.  You have been warned!
This is where the black & white of statistics and trends come into their own and throw a cloak of objectivity over the process - so I collect them and use them where possible

I am delighted to be able to spend Tuesday (in my mind the best of the four days of racing) in the OLBG box so I will take my portable sound & picture ornament out of its cover, clean the lens and become the David Bailey of Prestbury Park for the day (readers under 40 may need to google David Bailey...)

So back to the Day 1 selections:

13:30

Supreme Novices Hurdle

L'Ami Surge is my pick for the opener.  He didn't like the smelly French hurdles at all but since moving to Seven Barrow's he has not lost a hurdles race once.  This includes a couple of graded races at Sandown and Ascot so we can be sure he
has the stamina required for this course.  Nicky Henderson is coming in the Festival  in form with 40% strike rate for the past fortnight so he may give that Mullins man a run for the trainers title this year!

14:05

Arkle Chase

Vibrato Valtat Antepost favourites have a shocking record in this race although Simonsig and Sprinter Sacre, both odds-on Nicky Henderson/Barry Geraghty runners have done the job in the past 10 years.   Willie Mullins has never won this race and the last time Ruby won a chase at the Festival was on Kauto Star in 2009 (you can check, it's right!).  However good he may be, Un De Sceaux is a very short price so I have looked for something that can be backed each way (just about!). Vibrato Valtat has course form along with a liking for ground with the word soft in and Paul Nichols thinks he's a progressive horse and with his breathing problems a thing of the past, he has a very decent chance for the price.

 

14:40

Festival Handicap Chase

Ned Stark This isn't a race I'm hugely interested in but if I was given a free bet then it would be on big Ned Stark who has had this race targeted and showed some real grit and character to win his race at Wetherby last time out.

15:20

Champion Hurdle

Faugheen is a machine!  Hurricane Fly has a special place in everyone's hearts but I think his best is behind him now sadly.  This is going to be a fascinating race to watch and Jezki and The New One aren't without a very good chance and I think the difference between the top 3/4 here will be the jockey and there's no one who can hurdle up that hill like Ruby.  

  16:00  OLBG Mares Hurdle

 

Annie Power ('nuff said!)

  16:40  National Hunt Chase

Very Wood 4 miles around Prestbury Park needs a horse with an endless supply of stamina but also a jockey who knows the course and had a cool head.  Nina Carberry is that man!  Very Wood was staying on at the end of 3 miles at Navan last time out without the need for much 'persuasion' at all.  As long as his jumping holds together then he has as good a chance as any.

17:15  Novice Handicap Chase

Thomas Crapper / Horizontal Speed I admit to being unable to make my mind up between these two.  Horizontal Speed is the stats horse of the two but Thomas Crapper has been showing plenty and is turning into as good a chaser as he was hurdler.  I shall be on TC to win (if he sticks his neck out - see below!) with HS each way.

GOOD LUCK !