The "Oh My God, How Long?" Blog

I hang my head in shame that this is the first blog since the beginning of November!

In that time:

·        Richard Hughes became champion flat jockey for the first time

·        Frankie Dettori has been given 6 months ‘rest’ from the racecourse and is currently to be found inside the Big Brother house.  

Frankie lines up with the other runners

·        Barney Curley has voluntarily retired from training horses and is now devoting his time to his DAFA charity for Africa

·        John McCririck has involuntarily retired from his position as resident misogynist on TV and is now devoting his time to suing C4 for several million for alleged ageism.  

·        Kauto Star has retired from racing and now spends time practising bouncing in time to music 

·        Paul and Clive fell out

·        Big Bucks and Al Ferof were both discovered (on the same sad evening) to have tendon injuries ruling them out for the rest of the season

·       Frankel is now happily ensconced at Banstead Manor Stud ready to share his ‘£125k–a-pop’ lovejuice with 130 mares in his first season (I did the maths – it’s 16 ¼ million!)

·        Silviniaco Conti has announced his arrival on the NH scene in style (he’s a personal favourite of mine for 2013 so gets a mention!)

·        I vow not to leave my blog neglected, forgotten and forlorn for quite so long in future!

PS   You may remember the handiwork of the bad driver/bad SatNav combo on the 19 April!  The car insurers settled months ago BUT this is how the medieval cross now looks today.  

The delay is now due to the council.  The moral of this story is "if you want something doing don't give it to a committee"....if you look hard enough, in the middle of those pick up sticks is a 12ft high stone cross!

©

The Middle Blog (Ebor Festival Day 2)

The middle wasn't such a bad place to be drawn at York on the first day of the Ebor meeting despite my eschewing that very same draw in the first race.  As a point of interest, two of the three winners of the large field handicaps (Tax Free and Olympiad) came out of stall 11.  So since the stalls are positioned the same for Thursday, it might pay to keep an eye on Saint Jerome in the 14:00 and Navajo Chief in the 15:05 with claimer of the moment, Michael J M Murphy riding (hubby says this will win in accordance with his Indian/Native American method of selection!!  Navajo Chief was 4th so not too disgraced)

15:05 1 mile Handicap Class 2
I noted that all ten previous winners have been 3 or 4yo - which would remove over half the field so I've decided to give this race some thought and time when perhaps I'd be better with a shiny pin!  
With day to day racing at York (i.e. smaller fields) the low draw rules supreme but I learned my lesson on Wednesday and shan't be giving this quite so much importance.  However, my musing and pondering has led me to a shortlist of three:  Anderiego, Indian Jack and Trade Storm.  

Now given that Fallon has hopped off of the Cumani runner, Indian Jack to ride Anderiego for David O'Meara I think we should take that as a vote of no confidence in the Cumani runner which leaves us with Anderiego and Trade Storm.  

In the world of jockey booking 'swings and roundabouts', I can't for the life of me figure out why Hayley Turner is on the Cumani horse and not the Simcock runner Trade Storm after their rather successful partnership at Arlington - I can only think that this agreement was in place before her short notice deputising for Ryan Moore on I'm A Dreamer.  There really is no stopping David Simcock at the moment with 11 winners from 33 runners this past fortnight so I think it's safe to assume that Trade Storm is going to have come on for his first run in 2 months a fortnight ago at Ascot (2nd).

Jamie Spencer is booked to ride Trade Storm and he has been known to get a tune from a horse once in a while!  (Although he is best known getting his rides stuck in more traffic than the M25 at 5pm on a Friday...but I guess that's the downside of a hold up, pouncing, swooping style of riding when it occasionally it doesn't work out as intended).

However, I think that Anderiego will succeed in his quest for a hat trick at York for the Ebor Racing Club - he loves this track, distance and has won under Fallon and  must surely has been laid out for this race (with an owning syndicate name like that!?).  He's carrying a fair weight here and I reckon will take the beating.  There is 9/1 to be had at the moment but I can't see that price around for too long in the morning!

• Anderiego UP
• Trade Storm e/w  1st (12/1 or BFS 15.5)

and third selection on the shortlist, Indian Jack came.....3rd

PS:  Frankel was his usual imperious self yesterday and Sir Henry was dignified and charming as ever but if I ever hear or read Frankel referred to as "the Usain Bolt of horses" or "Usain Colt" (there IS already a horse by this name) I may scream!  

He is not the Usain Bolt of racehorses.  
He is the Frankel of racehorses.

The Green, Pink and White Blog (Day 1 Ebor Meeting)

Caption not Required !

Let's hope that we see Sir Henry alongside Frankel at York after his recent illness.  Fingers crossed that he's well enough to watch at the course.

I got so excited when looking at the York card for Wednesday to 'selectively' choose which races to look at in more depth that I got no further than the first race......

14:00 Symphony Group Stakes (Handicap) Class 2 5f 
Stats
With only three previous runnings, there isn't a lot in the way of stats to guide.  A 5yo or 6yo carrying between 9-4 and 9-6 and with a two word name is not going to be a very scientific method of attempting to select a winner!  Mister Manannan is the only runner to tick these 3 boxes and (sprint king) trainer Dandy Nichols assures us that his one or two issues have been sorted out and the owners are coming from the Isle Of Man to watch the race so you never know.
Draw/Running
I have discounted any middle drawn runners as this isn't advantageous.  There is a slight bias towards a high draw and even more for a hold up horse drawn high (unsurprisingly). There is plenty of front running speed with high drawn Le Toreador and Fitz Flyer to ensure a good tow for any closers.  I would suggest that Mass Rally is the likely beneficiary of this scenario.  He is turned out in a hood (known in our house as a gimp mask ever since a horse called Bondage was seen wearing one - true!) as well as blinkers to help him get his head in front at the business end and also has big field form.  Any overnight showers to take the sting out of the ground will be a plus as well.  
Obs
When I see Fallon booked for a Mick Easterby runner in a handicap at a big meeting like the Ebor, my senses click onto full alert.  The pair are teaming up with Ancient Cross in this race and although his last few placings (9-10-8-8) don't look earth shattering (two of these races he was hampered), he has at least been running in class 2s and is now back down to his last winning mark for the first time.  

Skybet are paying out on the first five places which means that I'll be each way on:

• Mass Rally  2nd  (needed a longer neck!)
• Ancient Cross  UP
• Mister Manannan  UP (not quite last - there was one behind him)

15:05 Great Voltigeur Stakes Class 1 Group 2 (3yo)

Stats

Only 3 favourites have won in the past 10 runnings but 9 winners have been in the top three of the betting.  Nine from ten winners have been sired by a group 1 winner. This would leave us with Noble Mission (Frankel's baby brother - full brother).

Draw/Running

With only 6 going to post, the draw isn't so important in this race.  At this level, horses tend to be able to run a race in a variety of ways so the fact that all of them except Thought Worthy have apparently performed best when held up should perhaps not be given too much importance.

Thoughts

I am not convinced that Main Sequence (or his '0/14 in 3yo' and '5/76 overall' at York jockey!) are suited to York.
Al Zarooni and Cecil are both double handed here and both are the top trainers (in this race) at the track.   Thomas Chippendale would need a huge step forward so I can't seriously consider him.  Energizer is the mount of Frankie D who is struggling to ride a winner lately (just 2 from his last 41 rides).  This leaves me pondering between Noble Mission who would be a most popular winner and Encke, the Barzalona booked adversary.  These two are so closely matched it's almost impossible to split them. Noble Mission is a group (3) winner who beat Encke on the nod last time out at Goodwood.  Then again Encke has more potential to improve this time.  They both go on good, good to firm or soft.  So at decent(ish) prices, I shall dutch them and put a reverse forecast (how's that for a cop out?) and if they dead heat then I will gloat forever.

• Noble Mission  UP
• Encke  UP

Note to self - if you going to read the race correctly then back the right horse doh!

PS:  Really I want Noble Mission to win....but I was always taught "I want doesn't get" so "please may Noble Mission win, please"?

When the Betfair server sent down on Sunday afternoon (again!), it prompted me to revisit my opened but never used Betdaq account.  A revelation!  Once you get used to the exchange layout it's really quite usable.  For those wanting to put small stakes on, the minimum bet on the exchanges is 0.50p and the best feature of all is that you can watch any race when logged in with a bet on at least one race so put a bet on the last race of the day!

The Vikings, Mongolians, Mad Irishmen and Legends Blog

What a week!  

Hayley added a third grade 1 win to her CV on Saturday with I'm A Dreamer's win at Arlington in the Beverley D. Stakes last Saturday - a ride which Ryan Moore gave up so that he could ride in Europe last weekend.  That will have been a nice payday with the winning horse receiving almost £279K.

Sweet Girl

Snow Fairy won impressively on Sunday at Deauville.  Despite being short of room about half a furlong from home, she showed true game and grit to get her head in front for the G1 Darley Prix Jean Romanet under Ryan Moore (which will have helped sweeten the disappointment of the night before).

Ireland had a 1-2 on Saturday with Donal Fahy winning and Richie Killoran coming second (44 seconds behind)  in the 1000km/7 day Mongol Derby.  The third placed horse was over an hour behind....

Saturday also heard the familiar voice of Derek 'Tommo' Thompson again at Doncaster after his surgery for cancer.  Unfortunately, he was admitted to Addenbrooks with suspected viral meningitis after feeling unwell that same day but is on the mend once more with the help of antibiotics and more chemo.  

But enough of all that past history stuff....the best of the week is yet to come.  

It’s Ebor week!  

I love this meeting and 2012 is particularly special with the appearance of Frankel.  His performance on Wednesday, when he’ll race for the first time over a mile and quarter will determine whether he goes for the Champion Mile or the Champion Stakes at Ascot in October for what will almost certainly be his final appearance on a racecourse in October.  There's a lot of hyped up debate about whether he'll stay but have you seen the distance that it takes Tom Queally to pull him up each time he’s run?  And as for the argument that other greats have been undone at York (Brigadier Gerard was beaten there), it's a different track these days.  Suffice to say, I'm not worried....just as long as Tom doesn't mess up!

Here’s a TV ad that’s been showing on prime time which is amazing given that horseracing isn’t exactly premier league football in terms of mass popularity!!

Michael J M Murphy will be making an appearance at York on the first day riding when riding Van der Art in the 16:50.  He’s a 7lb claimer to have on your side for sure!  His strike rate over the past fortnight has been phenomenal with 12 winners from 26 rides (on Monday evening at the time of writing).  However, he may not have too many more rides at the Ebor Festival as he’ll be vying for rides against the top jocks here and the handicaps which can use his allowance will be a little thinner on the ground.  Keep your eye on any that he gets though.

Historically Kieren Fallon has had a decent record at York (strike rate around the mid teens but not so hot in 2yo races) and he has plenty of bookings lined up though nothing for the big one, the Juddmonte….yet.  He can certainly pull a great ride out of the bag once in a while (Arlington Million on Afsare last Saturday wasn’t too shabby) but I think age is sadly beginning to catch up these days.  If I was an owner, I would be booking Buick– his riding this season has been much more consistent which I’ll put down to his new found maturity at the grand old age of 24 and he has a very decent strike rate around York.

A good source for some enlightening daily jockey and trainer stats can be found on the Totesport site.

They are the RP ones packaged up in a very reader friendly way and well worth bookmarking!

I’ll be getting excited and blogging and reviewing a couple of races a day over the Ebor meeting and as ever, more daily tips will be up at Speedy Equines.

The Comeback Kings and The Strolling Monster - Ascot Day 2

Both Fallon and Rooney both scored yesterday! Kieren Fallon had his first group 1 win  (and also his first Royal Ascot win) in six years and Wayne Rooney scored for England against the Ukraine on his comeback following a two match suspension and a nine month international goal drought.  Now if Fallon could ride one of Rooney's horses for a win here next year then they've got it sewn up between them!


There was no such worry about scoring for Frankel connections - for whom "comeback" is nothing but a mere word listed under 'C' in the dictionary!  His 11 length decimation of the  rest of the Queen Anne Stakes field yesterday has put to bed once and for all any doubters!  Timeform have now (finally and at last) given him a provisional rating of 147 - the highest ever rating they've bestowed in their 64 year existence.  

Watch the monster out for his stroll in the park below: 

For anyone feeling extremely lucky, the Tote Jackpot is carrying over £88K+ from today's pool to Ascot tomorrow (Wednesday)

14:30  Jersey Stakes

No favourite has won this in the past ten years but then nothing bigger than 20/1 has either.  It would appear that in larger fields a low to mid draw holds the advantage and if this pans out then Reply would look to be pick of the form on that side with a not-too-shabby third in the Irish 2000 guineas bringing him along nicely for this.  The other Ballydoyle runner, Ishvana came 2nd in the Irish 1000 Guineas but is up against the boys here and shouldn't be good enough.  If my take on the draw is way out then Sovereign Debt is interesting as he's shown up here twice in the past and won both times.  This is a step up in class but he won his last race easily enough to suggest he can make the necessary improvement.  He has to be held up so will need some luck in running but he has the right jockey to make this with him!

• Reply UP
• Sovereign Debt (e/w)  UP

Having looked out for the O'Brien sneaky big priced winner, I mentioned it then dismissed it grrrr

15:05  Windsor Forest

Michael Stoute has won this three times past ten years but has no runner in this year's renewal.  James Fanshawe has won twice though (in ten years) and with Kieren Fallon booked and confidence riding high after Tuesday's win then Captivator is a mare to consider at an each way price.  She is relatively lightly raced and the hood that she has on today (aka "gimp mask" in our house) has worked the oracle since it was first tried last year with 4 wins from 8 runs in it (the remainder were 2 x 2nds, 1 x 3rd and 1 x UP).  She'll appreciate the drying ground but this is quite a step up in class and I doubt she'll do better than a place - although it would be nice if she did!  Nahrain is using this as a stepping stone for the rest of the season and holds an entry for the Pretty Polly at the Curragh on 01 July.  She is so classy (2nd in the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf last seen) that winning this wouldn't take too much effort.  She's extremely lightly raced and dropping down to a mile here so we may not see her all out should she get into a battle with Chachamaidee who has been laid out for this race by Sir Henry and would look to have the credentials to take this.  I'll take Chachamaidee with Nahrain for the forecast and an each way on Captivator.

• Chachamaidee 2nd
• Nahrain  UP
• Captivator (e/w)  UP

15:45  Prince Of Wales Stakes
So You Think would be bucking the trend for exclusively 4yo and 5yo winners the past ten years but he is a class horse despite his not quite living up to expectations and has every right to buck the trend right off into the stratosphere.  His defeats came in world class competitions (Dubai World Cup, Breeders Cup Classic, Champion Stakes) and on dirt and polytrack so he has excuses.  You'd never have imagined evens or better on offer for him in this a year ago so I'm backing him to leave the Blighty and the Emerald Isle on a win before returning back down under to grow his mane into dreadlocks and hang on the beach or whatever!  A runner that I'm keen at an (just about) each way price on is Farhh and not just because I like hearing the racecaller having to repeat it!  He's only been on a racetrack three times and won on each occasion.  This isn't so much of a step up as a leap up in class but he beat what opposition he had last time out with supreme authority and he has the help of Frankie for the first time here.  He's a big boy and ought to love it here. 

• So You Think 1st
• Farhh (ew) 3rd

16:25  Royal Hunt Cup
With a field of 30, it's no surprise that past running have thrown up some double figure prices winners with the biggest in recent years being 28/1 Godolphin/Dettori Invisible Man (I'm still struggling as to why ever it went off at such a huge price two years later!).  Again this is a race which the 4yo and 5yo have a virtual stranglehold on (9 of the past 10 winners between them) and after chucking out the mid drawn runners 13-18, these are the ones I've concentrated on.  Anything over 33/1 has been crossed off too leaving a more manageable nine runner list which hopefully contains the winner.  Edinburgh Knight is bang in there with his Ascot form, big field form and form on good and good to soft.  Johnny Murtagh's record here with 20%+ strike rate makes Dimension of interest.  This horse has visited Ascot one and won at Ascot once - over 7f though but this extra furlong shouldn't be a negative.  It's surprising not to see Fallon booked for this ride as he's partnered Dimension for his last 7 races!  He is instead on board Belgian Bill (never ridden before) for George Baker whose stable is in top form presently ...if I was a 5ft something Irishman, I think I'd rather be on Dimension though!   The only other two I think are worth mentioning are Arabian Star who will be at the front and is handily drawn for his style of running and Boom And Bust who is returning after 11 months away from the racetrack.  He has won first time back after a break in the past but never after such a long spell on the sidelines though.  This cavalry charge winner will need so much luck in running that it really is a lottery.  Skybet, PaddyPower and Boylesports are paying first 5 places so with this in mind I shall go each way with:

• Edinburgh Knight (form pick) e/w  UP
• Dimension (jockey pick) e/w  UP
• Arabian Star (gamest horse of the pack pick) e/w  UP
• Belgian Bill (current trainer form pick) e/w  UP

 Won by a 6yo this year wouldn't you know it! 

17:00  Queen Mary Stakes
If the last race was a cavalry charge then this is the baby cavalry dash.  If this was a smaller field then I'd concentrate on the high drawn runners (62%+) but in this instance as long as you aren't in the middle, the draw advantage would appear to be pretty fair.  Again, I've dispensed with the middle 12-16 to kick things off!  Hannons 2yos should never be ignored and with a name like Jubilee Diamond at this year's Royal Ascot, you can only imagine that this race has been the plot all along!  Sadly she is drawn 14 which is going to make life very difficult.  Sharaarah is taking a step back in trip when I would have thought going the other way would have been more obvious. All Fur Coat has made all in her past three races which doesn't necessarily mean that she has to do so today although speed figures give her a good chance of making it if Hayley chooses.  The other in the field with comparative speediness and front running tendencies (if you can saddle her with this label after just one run) is Upward Spiral, drawn the other side (23).  Richard Kingscote is on board the other Dascombe runner, Ceiling Kitty but Johnny Murtagh's 20% trumps Richard's 7% here for me!  The final one I think is worth a mention is Graphic Guest - Mick Channon has very recently hit form and with just three runs under her belt, this horse is already a C&D winner and has beaten The Hairy Rocket.  
Only Ladbrokes are offering 5 places in this race so I've thrown my dart in just three of these:

• Upward Spiral e/w 4th
• All Fur Coat e/w  UP
• Graphic Guest e/w  UP

 Again, mentioned the winner above and discounted it 

17:35  Sandringham Handicap
Pimpernel rather disgraced herself last time out at Newmarket and this is a drop back in class to salvage some of the potential that she showed last year.  If she can drop her head back down as well then she may have a hope of placing at least.  No explanation/reason/excuse was given for her dreadful run but fillies can be temperamental (and seasonal!!) and I'm willing to give her one last each way chance based on last year.  The other filly that caught my eye here is Devotion who will also be better suited back at a mile and in listed rather than group company. These two both hold group 1 entries:  Devotion for the Irish Oaks and Pimpernel for the Coronation Stakes in two days, so if Ballydoyle and Godolphin think they are in that class then I'll follow...

• Devotion  UP
• Pimpernel  UP

Even harder than yesterday (as the actress said to the bishop) so I'll be keeping stakes sensible and hoping for one of those big field/big prices to bring home the bacon!

....finally and inevitably the Daily Wail Fail Mail headlined their website on Tuesday evening with a feature about Ascot and the "fashion police" 

The Getting Ready for Royal Ascot Blog

Cheers Kieren!

Yesterday, Kieren Fallon bought me a toaster.  A snazzy four sliced, variable width one which has purple lights and everything!  His ride on Navajo Chief was a glimpse of the sheer driving riding genius which we haven't been seeing so much of recently.  Navajo Chief looked to have been beaten about 100y from the line by Area Fifty One (Paul Hanagan) but Fallon turned on the drive, the horse dug deep and came back to win very gamely by a neck - particularly impressive in this 9f race since he had never previously even placed beyond a mile.  You can see the race here.  


However, my husband with his unique system of picking horses with Indian (native American!) names has suggested that the name is the real reason it won.  I will never (be allowed to) forget Chief Dan George's 33/1 win at Cheltenham Festival in 2010!


Needless to say, I had backed Navajo Chief (and tipped it on the alternate blog) hence the new toaster. That was the practical acquisition.  The impractical acquisition was the chocolate red wine I bought - which being a migraine sufferer (chocolate and red wine are most conducive to migraines!) I'm not sure if I dare open!

Can you believe that people exist within the general population who have no inkling that two of the best racehorses this generation will be racing at Ascot this week?  They may even think that Frankel is Frank Lampard's MC name and that there is a sudden unexplained trend at certain gatherings for Beluga!  I for one, am really looking forward to this years Royal Ascot but am now regretting my decision not to have booked the week off work as I did last year...... 

Frankel ....not to be confused with Frank L

The past week's racing has been littered with runners "needing this to get into Ascot".  The trouble with this little red herring was that if you looked at the races they were running, chances are that there were one or two others with the same entries and current ratings.  I haven't backed anything antepost apart from Dawn Approach in the Coventry (Tuesday) - a horse that I have heard the trainer (Bolger) thinks a lot of.

Today's selections will be up on speedyequines.com in a short while and this blog will be back in action for Ascot tomorrow night..........

Saturday's Selections & Results - 24 September

There is a load of decent racing today (well it is a Saturday!) - with three decent meetings within an hour and a half of me (Haydock, Ripon, Chester) but I'm unable to get to any of them despite all my finest efforts as I have other stuff/commitments....but there's still time!!

There is some excellent racing coming up over the next few weeks - the Arc on 02 October, the Cesarewitch on 08 October at Newmarket (which Ascot haven't been able to get their grubby hands on ....yet), Champions Day at (spit hiss - we all know it really should be at HQ Newmarket) Ascot on 15 October and then on the 04 & 05 November the Breeders Cup  meeting across the pond which is at Churchill Downs for the second year running and also the Melbourne Cup on the 05 November.  

However today, we have the Cambridgeshire at Newmarket which is down to a mere 33 runners with the defection of Maraheb and Tinkertown - not exactly a sensible betting medium but fantastic fun to watch!  There may be one more to add to that non-runners list if the ground doesn't suit Dare To Dance (anyone who has backed this horse already is a brave brave soul).  Non Runner

There are also a couple of races at San Siro today that warrant attention -  the group 1 Premio Vittorio di Capua at 15:15 which has been won by Godolphin for five of the last 9 runnings (but no entry today!) and which looks set to be the Dick Turpin 1^st  v. Cityscape 2^nd race.

Also at San Siro today is the Premio Sergio Cumani group 3 at 15:50 which is named in  honour of Luca Cumani's 10 times champion trainer father Sergio. Luca has an entry, Khor Seed 1^st

Paul Hanagan is riding at Newmarket today and Kieren Fallon is riding at Haydock - swapsies!

Today’s system selections are:

Haydock

14:45  Gentle Lord (11) 4^th

My Italian picks were best today (see above!)  Just the one winner on this shopping list and a loss of -4.8

Chester

16:10  Swift Alhaarth (6.6) UP

16:45  Baby Strange (5.4) UP

17:20  Corporal Maddox (5) 2^nd

Wolverhampton

17:50  Le Toreador (7) UP

19:20  Justbookie Dot Com (3.55) 3^rd

19:50 Yensi (4.6) UP

20:50 Painted Tail (4.2) 1^st          

Ripon

18:00  Gottcher (10.5) UP

A couple of longshots that caught my eye and who aren’t without a remote chance of sneaking into a place (or better!) are:

Haydock        14:15  All Analena If whatever was amiss LTO is resolved   UP

Newmarket    17:00  Gallagher  If the first time tongue tie and longer distance do the trick UP 

An early season tentative foray into the jumps for me (don't get me wrong - I'm perfectly capable of finding a winner on the jumps cards but am just out of practise after concentrating soley on the flat since April !) has thrown up:

Market Rasen  14:20  Viva Colonia  UP

                          14:50  North Island  UP

Frankel galloping yesterday (Tom Queally)
) Pic: Edward Whitaker / Racing Post )

Away from racing !  Google have let the world know that it's Jim Henson's 75th birthday with a fantastic cartoon on their home page.  This has led to my discovering this website:  http://www.matthewbarr.co.uk/muppets/  where you can take a quiz to find out which muppet you are.  I'm Gonzo!!!

 

 135                     122                    119

       56                       53                   25

Not for staking the house or your daughter on though!