The Scoopy Haddock Blog

What a perfect day to abandon logical reason when picking the names of the Scoop 6 winners like ex professional ironist, Agnes Haddock from Cheshire did in 1997 when she included a runner called Clouding Over because “it looked like rain on the way to the betting shop” and Simon “because I used to work with a really nice lad called Simon” with bonus race winner Taranis chosen the next week was because he had cloth number 13 which was her birthdayand not because it was the favourite – although that helped!  This selection method worked quite nicely for her and she took the whole Scoop 6 pot plus the bonus race the week after totalling over £688k.

So in tribute of Mrs Agnes Haddock and in search of an immense prize today of upwards of £10 million I have supplemented my sensible form and stats based selections with randomly logical picks chosen a la Haddock for a bit of fun......and with quite possible as much chance of winning!

One thing’s for sure, there will be at least one huge priced winner amongst the Scoop 6 races today but I do think it WILL be won.

Race 1

Haydock 14:05 6f Class 3 4yo+ (16 runners) Good

There’s no draw advantage to speak of at 6f here (I keep my own records so can trust this fact!).  There were high hopes for Bear Behind 1st early in his racing career when he contested listed races but has only won twice – the last time being a class 6 claimer!  This may have done his confidence some good though so he’s not to be totally discounted. Go Far has a nice low weight and a trainer and jockey who have done well enough around here but I’m with Run With Pride, who could be anything, having made a successful belated debut over 6f at Doncaster 3 weeks ago where he did all his best work at the end.  He must have had problems as he cost 200K guineas as a yearly then went to Derek Shaw last August for a bargain £7.5K but I like him a lot so I’m hoping he’s all that!

Form Pick:              Run With Pride

Haddock Pick:         Polski Max because my daughter picked it and she picked the first Scoop 6 winner last week  which was 20/1 Front Page News.

Race 2

Catterick 14:50 7f Class 3 4yo+ (15 runners) Good to Soft, Soft

There’s no drastic draw bias but a middle draw is slightly less preferred.  Having a trainer with a good track record seems to hold more sway here than at any other courses and for that reason Conry, Dr Red Eye and Showboating have had more attention paid to them than would otherwise be the case.  Conry loves it here at Catterick with five wins and two seconds from eight runs here and also loves soft ground so with Stevie Donohoe on board (ridden 7x, won 3x) I am very keen on his chances.

Form Pick:              Conry 1st 

Haddock Pick:         Just Paul because that’s the name of one of my brothers.

Race 3

Goodwood 14:55 7f Class 2 3yo (12 runners) Soft

Here we have a definite draw advantage for those drawn low (stalls 1-5).  It’s also useful to have some course form so those two stats lead us to Penny Drops from the in-form Haggas stable. Her win last time out at Lingfield suggest she’ll cope here but she’s up in class and that win was against her own sex.   Beau Nash 3rd has barely any weight on his back today but has never tried been tried on a track such as this before.  Weight and stamina aren’t as important as good balance on a sharp track like Goodwood so Beau Nash may not have such an advantage as first appears.  Mick’s Yer Man is a listed winner and although untried over this distance,  winning a 6f at Leicester is enough to suppose that he has the stamina for 7f here.  He likes soft ground and Ryan While takes off 5lb but his poor show at Chester poses a questionmark over the suitability of this track.  Supplicant has a nice draw and Fallon aboard who rides very well here.  Dropping into a handicap from group racing will be a lot easier today. His two wins at Ripon bode will for coping around this unique course and his outing at Newbury will have tuned him up nicely for this.

Form Pick:              Supplicant

Haddock Pick:         Penny Drops 2nd because everyone knows it’s lucky to pick a dropped penny

Race 4

Haydock 15:10 6f Class 1 Listed 3yo+ Fillies (15 runners) Good

Again, no draw bias to help guide us here.  3-5 year olds have fared best in this race with just one 6yo winning in the past ten years.  Only two favourites have won in that time yet nothing priced bigger than 20/1 and all the winners have had an RPR of between 100-112.

Gathering Power 2nd is a very interesting contender that ticks the stat list above and from the same connections as Sole Power and both stable form and jockey booking are encouraging at a decent price. However, Joyeuse is a classy filly dropping back to more realistic company now after her shot at the 1000 Guineas (11^th) which she didn’t stay.  Back at 6f and away from group company, Ryan More should ensure that she wipes the floor with this lot.   

Form Pick:              Joyeuse 1st

Haddock Pick:          Gracia Directa because it’s Spanish (Direct Grace) and I was in Barcelona last week!

Race 5

Catterick 15:25 7f Class 4 4yo+ (14 runners) Good to Soft, Soft

PJ McDonald has won this race for two different trainers in the past 3 years and today rides Millkwood.  He’s a long standing maiden but has placed here in the past on soft ground but is (unbelievably!) on his highest ever mark.  The hood and cheekpieces combination might just eke out that little bit more improvement required but he is up against it.  Khelman 3rd is better at 6f and Johnny Cavagin 1st could do with a couple more pounds respite from the handicapper.   My choice is Piceno.  Scott Dixon has had a cool (rather than cold!) spell lately but has a splendid 29% strike rate in 4yo+ races here plus Piceno is happiest on soft ground and has never been out of the places at Catterick in six runs.

Form Pick:              Piceno

Haddock Pick:         Bogsnog not because I’ve ever snogged a bog but because he’s owned by a syndicate called Facts & Figures and I like facts and figures!

Race 6

Haydock 15:45 8f Class 2 3yo (17 runners) Good

No horse starting at odds bigger than 12/1 has won this race in the past ten years so that’s where I’ve concentrated my efforts – on the more likely winners!  There’s no particular draw bias at this distance here either – despite what you read! 

Studying Zarwaan’s last run, I’m not convinced that this extra furlong will suit and a 3lbs rise makes him even less appealing.  What About Carlo looks classy enough but may be best on a right handed track and appears to need good ground.  William Haggas has a decent 35% strike rate with his 3yo at Haydock so Bilimbi needs very close consideration. Red Stargazer is an out and out stayer and C&D winner on soft here.  He’s up 6lb in a better race but is so progressive that he cancope with that and if the going changes with the forecast lunchtime downpour transpiring then he’s my choice.

Form Pick:              Bilimbi (good going)

Red Stargazer (soft going)

Haddock Pick:        Hot Coffee 4th because I read this name just as I’d just made myself one

GOOD LUCK !

©

Total Eclipse of the Newton Blog

I've come across quite a number of different techniques for picking a horse to back in my time.  Some are logical and some are totally not!  


A friend's husband will choose any horse with 'red' in it's name, my husband has his Native American theme going on, a friend of my daughter's gran always picks the horse drawn in stall 3 and my son last week when asked if he wanted to back anything in the Irish Derby said "I'll choose Camelot because it sounds like Camel and they run fast".  


Then of course there is Agnes "I picked Clouding Over because it looked like rain on the way to the betting shop" Haddock's method - well it won her the Scoop 6!


My method is rather more logical, painstakingly researched and backed up with years of studying form and constant updating all the above.......so if Dr Beaujolais wins the 18:25 at Bellewstown because I drank a glass of it last night then I shall scream!

Old Newton Cup - Haydock 15:25
A mud bath!  A few observations... You need a horse that can get every yard of the trip at Haydock even on good ground.  I always find that the ground rides slower than the official going at Haydock so if it's given as heavy then it most certainly is.  I'm very big on my draw bias stats but not so much when the going is soft or worse (for the record I'd have mid to high numbers with the advantage).  Nine of the past ten winners have been aged 4 or 5 but again with these testing conditions, I'm not going to give that stat as much credence today.  


Luca Cumani has won 3 of the past 10 runnings and has Franciscan here today who I like an awful lot.  He has only run once on heavy ground (3rd) when he stumbled at the start and lost his two front shoes.  Dr Marwan likes his Saturday winners especially if they are at Haydock or Chester so I think it's safe to say that this race has been the plot and the reason that Fallon is doing 8-5 (his lowest for many many months) and is riding here and not at Sandown today .  He will get every inch of the trip and should be galloping up that toughfinal furlong when the others are toiling.

Lexi's Boy is the favourite with his perfect draw in stall 1 for a front runner.  Given Donald McCain's success this year with his forays in to longer distance flat races (and in dire conditions) then he is to be feared.  He has won on soft but never raced on worse but has a half brother who won on debut on heavy last month (Unsinkable) so this doesn't concern me.  What does it his stamina!  Whilst the 11f at Carlisle on soft last time out wasn't a problem, his breeding doesn't scream out for furtherand 5/2 is too short for me so I'd rather go each way with Franciscan.


Franciscan

Eclipse - Sandown 15:45
Sandown is currently good to soft, soft in places and (according to the clerk) a shower away from soft all over.
With Farhh having been supplemented last week, closely followed by the defection of So You Think shortly after (I am suggesting nothing!  *cough* stud fees safe *cough*) this race has taken a different tone.  Where I would been concentrating on these two, I have now cast my net much wider.  


Bonfire will like the ease if there is another shower and will appreciate the drop back down to 10f but I worry that he's just not quite good enough for this level.   


I like Cityscape a lot and we should see him settling in just behind of Nathaniel who I think would have been better over a couple of extra furlongs.  Twice Over I know is a favourite of Sir Henry's but at 7yo, I think his best days are behind him now and none of past ten years winners have been aged over five (not a good stat for Cityscape either).  


Monteresso could be an each way chance at his current 14/1 - he has raced mainly on polytrack but is a Dubawi so can handle some cut (never before raced on worse than good).  


I tipped up Farhh each way on this blog for Ascot and today I think we'll see Frankie settling at the back of the field then coming home strongly to win.  Connectinos have had the rain they hoped would come and with a clear run at Ascot he may (probably would) have beaten So You Think and although I really like Cityscape, I have to go for the ex blog Farhh with Cityscape for the forecast and Monteresso each way.

1. Farhh
2. Cityscape
3. Monteresso (ew)

Avoidance Blog - 24 May

I have my tickets lined up for Haydock 02 June!  Now I know the Sandy Lane Stakes isn't quite the Derby but with a race name like that I have to be there don't I ?  And there is some decent racing , Pimms, BBQ, afternoon tea and a band no less......I need to go hat shopping!

Now I have to find something to do two days later on Jubilee Day itself to avoid the kids street party outside my front door (Bah humbug). Now who's taking bets that this scaffolding (still unchanged) will soon become festooned with bunting and some small child will mistake if for a climbing frame if they can manage to avoid their parents for a few moments (well I would have) ?


Leicester has a meeting that day - that's only 100 miles away!  Never been to Leicester before.......never used a trip to the races as an avoidance ploy either....

The Wife's Sister knocked out almost all of the ticket jackpot ticket holder at Worcester on Wednesday.  The remaining 73.5 joined the after the second race.  This means that £140,472 is rolled over to Haydock for Thursday's Tote jackpot and this can be expected to hit the £250K mark with the big syndicates no doubt coming out to play!

With the Derby looming (I wonder if Fallon will have a ride this year?), Clare Balding tweeted a sweet sweet story on Wednesday morning.  

Mill Reef

During filming at her brother Andrew's yard, she explained to her nephew that Grumpy (Clare's father Ian) had trained Mill Reef to win the Derby in 1971 and that it was really hard to train a Derby winner and some trainer never have one.  Her 5 year old nephew sat down with his Dad Andrew and said "Daddy, if he's going to win the Derby I think Grumpy should train Bonfire". 

Draw Bias Nuggets:

• Goodwood has a pronounced low draw advantage over 6f, 7f and 8f.  
• You don't want to be drawn in the middle at 7f at Haydock
• You most definitely want to have a high draw in 12f races at Haydock 
• Big big low draw advantage for 5f races at Sandown
• Big big high draw advantage  for 5f races Tipperary

Wetherby

15:55 (2m 4f, Class 4 Novice Hurdle) I am always extremely wary of any runner making their hurdling debut - they can school as well as you can hope for at home but in the hurly burly of a race, a little experience can make the difference...unless it's a high class runner from one of the very top stables!  Therefore Well Sharp 1st would have to be around 5/1 before I would consider backing him (I'm also convinced that great though he is, McCoy on your back isn't always the most gentle introduction to obstacles!) and this is a tough ask back from almost 8 months.  King's Bayonet has already won a class 3 race at this same distance (the step up seemed to be the key) on good ground albeit going the other way round at Ascot.  Although he's been put up 10lb for that, he's had a short break and with Choc back up, this shouldn't be enough to stop him following up.  Speed Steed 6th should run well - he has no form on this distance but a win over 2 miles at Towcester would suggest this is within reach and he's on a generous mark.

• King's Bayonet Unplaced and very disappointing!

Tipperary

18:50 (5f) If the ground had a bit more cut (a lot more) Kateeva would have been my pick for this race - however she has never even placed on good before.  Possible NR has been put up 9lb for her last win and even with the jockeys claim, I think this may be a pound or two too much to follow up.  Despite the usual low draw theory, I prefer my stats which say that 13 of the last 17 races at this distance here have been won from a high draw (1 from middle and 3 from low) so stall 13 doesn't deter me from Red Sea Poll who is carrying a super feather weight and now has a 9lb pull on Possible who beat her by a length and a quarter last time out when she was returning from nine months off the track.

• Red Sea Poll NR

......and was I the only one to notice that Wicked Wench tipped up here at York last Friday (18 May) and previously on the 24 April turned out again at Windsor on Monday at 25/1 and won .....grrrrrr

I love the fact that Minidress is running in the "Height Of Fashion" Stakes at Goodwood at 15:4 today!

Wednesday's Haydock Selections & Updates - 21 March

Three winners from six races yesterday and a decent profit - two good days on the trot and I'm working on a third!! 


I'll be at Haydock tomorrow so that's the card I'm concentrating on.  This is the third year that I'll have visited this particular meeting (as part of my post Cheltenham blues cure!) and this year the card looks better than ever.  

Well I had a great day anyhow!  Two winners (three if you include Gentleman Anshan at Hereford) and two profitable places - still a small loss of -2.01 though and some unexpected results but I'm sure I saw a Cheltenham 2013 runner in Amron Lad!  

	Haydock	First Choice	E/W or Forecast Choice
1	14:10	Good Order PU
2	14:40	Star In Flight UP	Little Hercules (EW) UP
3	15:15	Arctic Ben 1st
4	15:50	Rawaaj (EW) 2nd
5	16:25	Bold Sir Brian UP	Tiger O’Toole (EW) 3rd
6	16:55	Amron Lad 1st
7	17:25	Flamingo Cay UP

Notes:

1/            Paddy coming an awful long way for the one ride on Good Order.  I think the penalty will prove a straw too many for Dancing Art and Daldini may be in the shake up but would prefer a more experienced jockey aboard.

My nightly nap for tomorrow is (naturally!) at Haydock and running in the 16:25:

Bold Sir Brian

This race will be fascinating to watch and I have another runner Tiger O'Toole a very close second on my sheet.  If the weather and going is as expected then Bold Sir Brian should prevail but I will be having a reverse forecast with Tiger and looking very closely at the runners in the paddock!  


By the way, the pic above was found on an interesting website Modern Chivalry and  The Order Of The Marshal - worth a look if you have a few spare minutes!  

Gentleman Anshan is out again today after being pulled out of his race on Monday.  Since he was my nap for that day, I'll be backing him this time (Hereford 16:45). 1st 

The all weather jockey title is still stalemate with both Fanning and Morris winning one apiece yesterday so they're both on 80 wins for the season.

80                                    80     

Saturday's (Ascot & Haydock) Selections & Updates - 18 February

I picked up my new glasses from the opticians yesterday afternoon.  They took 13 days to arrive - hand made by fairies in the Far East is my guess and you'd be perfectly correct in thinking that I didn't order them from Vision Express.  Anyway, the very first horse that I picked while wearing them was Brunston last night at 11/1 closely followed by Samollie at an equally tasty 10/1 then An Saighdiur at 15/2.  I promise this isn't a whole load of the worst after timing you've ever heard but merely a demonstration of how lucky my new glasses are - honestly!


I love visiting Haydock (thought of going on my own in rain has tempered enthusiasm somewhat!) and have a fair enough strike rate there (28%) whereas Ascot is slightly better at 34.78% so these are the two cards that I'll be studying for Saturday....mostly!  


I've been tweaking and keeping records of the effects that different criteria have on a race and have now taken the tweaking to a daily level.  The day of the week really does affect it!  For instance, one glaring observation is that on a Saturday it is more important that the horse has had it's pipe opener (if it needs one) and the jockey booking is also more important....whereas looking for a "valid" reason why a Saturday runner may not have won LTO is bordering on pointless on a Saturday (make of that one what you will!)
  

Well that's more like it!  Profits of + 6.71 today and the nap won easily :)

	Ascot	First Choice	E/W or RF Choice
1	13:50	Silvianico Conti UP
2	15:00	Riverside Theatre 1st
3	16:10	Balder Succes 1st

1/         Silvianico Conti and Bobs Worth are hard to split.  I would suggest that SC has the more assured stamina but will be having an insurance/cover bet on BW in case

	Haydock	First Choice	E/W or RF Choice
1	13:35	Une Artiste 1st	Lexi’s  Boy (EW) UP (3rd)
2	14:10	Real Milan UP
3	14:45	Reindeer Dippin (EW) UP
4	15:20	Giles Cross 1st	Fredo (EW)  UP
5	15:55	Grand Vision (EW) 1st
6	17:00	Officier De Reserve UP

Notes:

1/            David Bass is here for this one ride on Une Artiste who has an impressively high quality record on the flat in France, won his hurdling debut easily by 12 lengths but has never raced in a field of more than a handful of runner (only neg)

2/            I like Thehilllsofuisneach a whole lot but not the penalty he has to haul around today. 

3/            Although the trainer says Featherbed Lane will get 3m, I’m not backing it at short prices with a question mark.  Reindee Dippin is taking a heck of a jump in class here but horse, trainer and jockey course form mean it’s not impossible.  Benny Be Good and Restless Harry (1st) are both tempting as well so it’s just a small each way in this for me.

4/            Not advertising but Paddy Power are paying first 4 places in this today!

5/            Another favourite!  Boring I know but it’s favourite for a reason – he’s on a good mark, has the stamina, unraced on softer than g/s but this shouldn’t be any problem on breeding and Tom O’Brien rides well here.

6/            ODR has only just recently left Sue Smith and his penultimate outing resulted in a 3^rd in a Class 2 at Cheltenham (Jan 2011).  Something presumably amiss after that but the ability is there

Since I've already picked three of the five Maguire/McCain runners above, I've put an each way Lucky 31 on all five - that's Lexi's Boy (13:35), Real Milan (14:10), Reindeer Dippin (14:45), Tornado Bob (15:55) - prob the least likely in my book and Empress Orchid (16:30)

Nightly nap is getting easier by the day, I swear ...and what's an "S" between friends:

Balder Succes

Ascot 16:10
1st  
Is it just my imagination or does that baby remind you of Choc Thornton (maybe my new glasses need adjusting?!)....it does now...that's a victory clench :)