A friend's husband will choose any horse with 'red' in it's name, my husband has his Native American theme going on, a friend of my daughter's gran always picks the horse drawn in stall 3 and my son last week when asked if he wanted to back anything in the Irish Derby said "I'll choose Camelot because it sounds like Camel and they run fast".
Then of course there is Agnes "I picked Clouding Over because it looked like rain on the way to the betting shop" Haddock's method - well it won her the Scoop 6!
My method is rather more logical, painstakingly researched and backed up with years of studying form and constant updating all the above.......so if Dr Beaujolais wins the 18:25 at Bellewstown because I drank a glass of it last night then I shall scream!
Old Newton Cup - Haydock 15:25
A mud bath! A few observations... You need a horse that can get every yard of the trip at Haydock even on good ground. I always find that the ground rides slower than the official going at Haydock so if it's given as heavy then it most certainly is. I'm very big on my draw bias stats but not so much when the going is soft or worse (for the record I'd have mid to high numbers with the advantage). Nine of the past ten winners have been aged 4 or 5 but again with these testing conditions, I'm not going to give that stat as much credence today.
Luca Cumani has won 3 of the past 10 runnings and has Franciscan here today who I like an awful lot. He has only run once on heavy ground (3rd) when he stumbled at the start and lost his two front shoes. Dr Marwan likes his Saturday winners especially if they are at Haydock or Chester so I think it's safe to say that this race has been the plot and the reason that Fallon is doing 8-5 (his lowest for many many months) and is riding here and not at Sandown today . He will get every inch of the trip and should be galloping up that toughfinal furlong when the others are toiling.
Lexi's Boy is the favourite with his perfect draw in stall 1 for a front runner. Given Donald McCain's success this year with his forays in to longer distance flat races (and in dire conditions) then he is to be feared. He has won on soft but never raced on worse but has a half brother who won on debut on heavy last month (Unsinkable) so this doesn't concern me. What does it his stamina! Whilst the 11f at Carlisle on soft last time out wasn't a problem, his breeding doesn't scream out for furtherand 5/2 is too short for me so I'd rather go each way with Franciscan.
Franciscan
Eclipse - Sandown 15:45
Sandown is currently good to soft, soft in places and (according to the clerk) a shower away from soft all over.
With Farhh having been supplemented last week, closely followed by the defection of So You Think shortly after (I am suggesting nothing! *cough* stud fees safe *cough*) this race has taken a different tone. Where I would been concentrating on these two, I have now cast my net much wider.
Bonfire will like the ease if there is another shower and will appreciate the drop back down to 10f but I worry that he's just not quite good enough for this level.
I like Cityscape a lot and we should see him settling in just behind of Nathaniel who I think would have been better over a couple of extra furlongs. Twice Over I know is a favourite of Sir Henry's but at 7yo, I think his best days are behind him now and none of past ten years winners have been aged over five (not a good stat for Cityscape either).
Monteresso could be an each way chance at his current 14/1 - he has raced mainly on polytrack but is a Dubawi so can handle some cut (never before raced on worse than good).
I tipped up Farhh each way on this blog for Ascot and today I think we'll see Frankie settling at the back of the field then coming home strongly to win. Connectinos have had the rain they hoped would come and with a clear run at Ascot he may (probably would) have beaten So You Think and although I really like Cityscape, I have to go for the ex blog Farhh with Cityscape for the forecast and Monteresso each way.
- Farhh
- Cityscape
- Monteresso (ew)
No comments:
Post a Comment