Avoidance Blog - 24 May

I have my tickets lined up for Haydock 02 June!  Now I know the Sandy Lane Stakes isn't quite the Derby but with a race name like that I have to be there don't I ?  And there is some decent racing , Pimms, BBQ, afternoon tea and a band no less......I need to go hat shopping!

Now I have to find something to do two days later on Jubilee Day itself to avoid the kids street party outside my front door (Bah humbug). Now who's taking bets that this scaffolding (still unchanged) will soon become festooned with bunting and some small child will mistake if for a climbing frame if they can manage to avoid their parents for a few moments (well I would have) ?


Leicester has a meeting that day - that's only 100 miles away!  Never been to Leicester before.......never used a trip to the races as an avoidance ploy either....

The Wife's Sister knocked out almost all of the ticket jackpot ticket holder at Worcester on Wednesday.  The remaining 73.5 joined the after the second race.  This means that £140,472 is rolled over to Haydock for Thursday's Tote jackpot and this can be expected to hit the £250K mark with the big syndicates no doubt coming out to play!

With the Derby looming (I wonder if Fallon will have a ride this year?), Clare Balding tweeted a sweet sweet story on Wednesday morning.  

Mill Reef

During filming at her brother Andrew's yard, she explained to her nephew that Grumpy (Clare's father Ian) had trained Mill Reef to win the Derby in 1971 and that it was really hard to train a Derby winner and some trainer never have one.  Her 5 year old nephew sat down with his Dad Andrew and said "Daddy, if he's going to win the Derby I think Grumpy should train Bonfire". 

Draw Bias Nuggets:

• Goodwood has a pronounced low draw advantage over 6f, 7f and 8f.  
• You don't want to be drawn in the middle at 7f at Haydock
• You most definitely want to have a high draw in 12f races at Haydock 
• Big big low draw advantage for 5f races at Sandown
• Big big high draw advantage  for 5f races Tipperary

Wetherby

15:55 (2m 4f, Class 4 Novice Hurdle) I am always extremely wary of any runner making their hurdling debut - they can school as well as you can hope for at home but in the hurly burly of a race, a little experience can make the difference...unless it's a high class runner from one of the very top stables!  Therefore Well Sharp 1st would have to be around 5/1 before I would consider backing him (I'm also convinced that great though he is, McCoy on your back isn't always the most gentle introduction to obstacles!) and this is a tough ask back from almost 8 months.  King's Bayonet has already won a class 3 race at this same distance (the step up seemed to be the key) on good ground albeit going the other way round at Ascot.  Although he's been put up 10lb for that, he's had a short break and with Choc back up, this shouldn't be enough to stop him following up.  Speed Steed 6th should run well - he has no form on this distance but a win over 2 miles at Towcester would suggest this is within reach and he's on a generous mark.

• King's Bayonet Unplaced and very disappointing!

Tipperary

18:50 (5f) If the ground had a bit more cut (a lot more) Kateeva would have been my pick for this race - however she has never even placed on good before.  Possible NR has been put up 9lb for her last win and even with the jockeys claim, I think this may be a pound or two too much to follow up.  Despite the usual low draw theory, I prefer my stats which say that 13 of the last 17 races at this distance here have been won from a high draw (1 from middle and 3 from low) so stall 13 doesn't deter me from Red Sea Poll who is carrying a super feather weight and now has a 9lb pull on Possible who beat her by a length and a quarter last time out when she was returning from nine months off the track.

• Red Sea Poll NR

......and was I the only one to notice that Wicked Wench tipped up here at York last Friday (18 May) and previously on the 24 April turned out again at Windsor on Monday at 25/1 and won .....grrrrrr

I love the fact that Minidress is running in the "Height Of Fashion" Stakes at Goodwood at 15:4 today!