Saturday's (Ascot & Haydock) Selections & Updates - 18 February

I picked up my new glasses from the opticians yesterday afternoon.  They took 13 days to arrive - hand made by fairies in the Far East is my guess and you'd be perfectly correct in thinking that I didn't order them from Vision Express.  Anyway, the very first horse that I picked while wearing them was Brunston last night at 11/1 closely followed by Samollie at an equally tasty 10/1 then An Saighdiur at 15/2.  I promise this isn't a whole load of the worst after timing you've ever heard but merely a demonstration of how lucky my new glasses are - honestly!


I love visiting Haydock (thought of going on my own in rain has tempered enthusiasm somewhat!) and have a fair enough strike rate there (28%) whereas Ascot is slightly better at 34.78% so these are the two cards that I'll be studying for Saturday....mostly!  


I've been tweaking and keeping records of the effects that different criteria have on a race and have now taken the tweaking to a daily level.  The day of the week really does affect it!  For instance, one glaring observation is that on a Saturday it is more important that the horse has had it's pipe opener (if it needs one) and the jockey booking is also more important....whereas looking for a "valid" reason why a Saturday runner may not have won LTO is bordering on pointless on a Saturday (make of that one what you will!)
  

Well that's more like it!  Profits of + 6.71 today and the nap won easily :)

	Ascot	First Choice	E/W or RF Choice
1	13:50	Silvianico Conti UP
2	15:00	Riverside Theatre 1st
3	16:10	Balder Succes 1st

1/         Silvianico Conti and Bobs Worth are hard to split.  I would suggest that SC has the more assured stamina but will be having an insurance/cover bet on BW in case

	Haydock	First Choice	E/W or RF Choice
1	13:35	Une Artiste 1st	Lexi’s  Boy (EW) UP (3rd)
2	14:10	Real Milan UP
3	14:45	Reindeer Dippin (EW) UP
4	15:20	Giles Cross 1st	Fredo (EW)  UP
5	15:55	Grand Vision (EW) 1st
6	17:00	Officier De Reserve UP

Notes:

1/            David Bass is here for this one ride on Une Artiste who has an impressively high quality record on the flat in France, won his hurdling debut easily by 12 lengths but has never raced in a field of more than a handful of runner (only neg)

2/            I like Thehilllsofuisneach a whole lot but not the penalty he has to haul around today. 

3/            Although the trainer says Featherbed Lane will get 3m, I’m not backing it at short prices with a question mark.  Reindee Dippin is taking a heck of a jump in class here but horse, trainer and jockey course form mean it’s not impossible.  Benny Be Good and Restless Harry (1st) are both tempting as well so it’s just a small each way in this for me.

4/            Not advertising but Paddy Power are paying first 4 places in this today!

5/            Another favourite!  Boring I know but it’s favourite for a reason – he’s on a good mark, has the stamina, unraced on softer than g/s but this shouldn’t be any problem on breeding and Tom O’Brien rides well here.

6/            ODR has only just recently left Sue Smith and his penultimate outing resulted in a 3^rd in a Class 2 at Cheltenham (Jan 2011).  Something presumably amiss after that but the ability is there

Since I've already picked three of the five Maguire/McCain runners above, I've put an each way Lucky 31 on all five - that's Lexi's Boy (13:35), Real Milan (14:10), Reindeer Dippin (14:45), Tornado Bob (15:55) - prob the least likely in my book and Empress Orchid (16:30)

Nightly nap is getting easier by the day, I swear ...and what's an "S" between friends:

Balder Succes

Ascot 16:10
1st  
Is it just my imagination or does that baby remind you of Choc Thornton (maybe my new glasses need adjusting?!)....it does now...that's a victory clench :)