Saturday’s Selections & Updates – 03 September

I may not have any time for selections or racing tomorrow - I have updated todays (Sat) results below and also updated the jockey tables.  My dog Vinnie (who is the biggest and fiercest dog in the world ....in his mind) isn't well and possibly (after speaking to the vet) has colitis so a trip to the (ssssh whisper) v.e.t. may likely be required and certainly some tlc.  Poor baby :(

A much better day yesterday – with an added bonus that I learned I have free tickets for Doncaster on Wednesday. 

Paddy Power made me chuckle today when I saw they had Hayley Turner down as the Empress Charlotte’s  jockey on their site.  She is a tough cookie but not that tough (Luke Morris took the ride in case you’re wondering and came 2^nd). 

Fallon managed a double at Kempton (naturally this is because I didn’t back any of his rides) and so has edged a little further up the champion jockey leader board and has leap-frogged Silvestre De Silva (again). 

There’s a vote for who you think will win the Betfred Sprint Cup at Haydock tomorrow (15:35) – the vote will finish at 3pm so you can check back to see what comes out top if you like!

Today’s system selections are:

Kempton

14:45   Primaeval (5.4) 4^th

16:25   Crown Dependancy (4.9) UP

17:25   Summer Dancer (16) 3^rd

Thirsk

15:30   Legal Legacy (11.5) UP

18:05   Silly Gilly (6) UP

Ascot

15:45   Parlour Games (9.6) UP

Wolverhampton

19:00   Welcome Approach (6.2) UP

20:00   Reality Show (1.8) 1^st

20:30   Full Pelt (8) UP

Now this is more like a Saturday should be .....if you're a bookie!!  A -7.2 loss today which is not good but which WILL all be restored/won/returned/replenished over the next day or two.

It might be worth bearing in mind when looking at the card for the Sprint Cup that the following patterns show up from the past 10 years:

• 8 had won the same season
• 8 has won when partnered up with same jockey
• 7 had previously won over 6f
• 6 had previously won a graded race
• This would narrow down the field to 6:  Delegator, Dream Ahead, Genki, Hitchens, Masamah, Society Rock
• only 2 winners went off favourite

Dream Ahead won and fit all criteria above

How NOT To Pick A WInner

I had a dream last night - as I do most nights but generally they are forgotten or about washing up or hoovering or some other mundane chore (waste of a dream I know!).  Last night however, my dream was very precise in that a horse Hayley Turner would normally have ridden wins a fairly big race today.  No names, no trainer name (although elimination and/or common sense would point to Michael Bell) so I've looked and looked....Activate is all I can find.  If anyone notices a horse that Hayley would usually ride in a big race then please please name it in a comment below.  I'm intrigued by this dream and want to know whether to rent a fortune telling tent on Blackpool promenade next season!
I shan't be renaming myself Gypsy Rose Sandi any time soon!  Many thanks to Biggles who did point out to me today's runners who would normally have had Hayley riding.....

118                           107                            106

     56                                 49                              22

If you'd like to know how John Francome kept his weight down over the Christmas period back in the day, this vid will explain:

Friday’s Selections, Review & Results – 26 August

Yesterday, I had a day off (as opposed to an off day!) and put up three videos of Frankel’s 2011 races to fill the gap.  Surprisingly, Frankel isn’t the top earning horse in the UK this year (Pour Moi with his Derby win takes the honours)....nor is he the the second but the third.  Nathaniel has won more prize money than Frankel – I was pretty amazed at that! 

And which jockey has won the most in prize money this year!  William Buick!  Hayley Turner has ridden more valuable winners than Paul Hanagan by virtue of her two Gr1 winners.....and although he’s French, Olivier Peslier has ridden 23 times this season in the UK without collecting a single centime.

Today normal service is resumed and today’s system selections are:

Newmarket

15:30   Manifestation (4.8) UP

17:05   Time Medicean (7.2) 2^nd

Thirsk

16:25   Captain Kylo (8.6) 2^nd

Hamilton

18:35   Cheeky Wee Red (6.4) UP

19:05   Valery Borzov (4.6) 1^st

19:35   Butler (6.4) UP

A loss today of -1.4 
Just for the record and in case anyone wants to know or reads!  My system selection strike rate is 25.12% with +17.49 level stakes profit this month and my review selection strike rate is 35.14% with a +34.36 level stakes profit this month.


By the way, Valery Borzov was an Olympic sprinter from the (then) USSR who won 2 golds, a silver and 2 bronze Olympic medals for  the men’s 100m and 200m and 4 x 100 relay in 1972 and 1976.

Equine Valery Borzov (Paul Hanagan)

Olympian Valery Borzov

We like Valery Borzovs to be at the front on the winning line..............

Newmarket 16:35 Grants Whisky Handicap 3yo only, 7f, Class 3

With the rain and the going changes (now soft all over) I love it!  Usually because it means that key runners (key to the running of the race rather than the favourites) drop out and it can leave the field wide open for a bit priced lone front runner for instance, to pick up the spoils...assuming they handle conditions.

There are currently two such front running beasties left in this: 

Fred Willetts is more often seen over a mile but not shown anything much on soft ground (although he has placed a couple of times on good to soft).  However that miler stamina could be very much a positive over 7f at Newmarket in the soft and as a natural front runner, he may just show enough speed at a lowly weight to pull a fast one!!    

Robemaker will handle conditions just fine having won on soft before and has also been seen racing over a mile.  His last visit here was dire (lower class, just 2lb higher and last by 52L) and doesn’t inspire much confidence that he likes this track though!  However, the drop may prove the key and he does have Buick aboard today.

These two are both big enough prices for an each way and there’s a case to be made for both – however tentative!

Unless one of these two drop out, I am on White Frost who is a C&D winner in a class 2 LTO with a nice C&D 2^nd on soft to his name.  He’s up a fair few pounds for these but did it so well and is so lightly raced that it shouldn’t present a problem for him. He seemingly can be ridden whichever way is asked of him so I expect he’ll track along just behind the front runners and take advantage at the end (expect = hope!)

White Frost         10/3 1st 

Robemaker         10/1 (pennies!) UP

Fred Willetts       33/1 (pennies!) UP

Monday’s Selections & Review (15 August)

Back to the (mostly) low grade fodder that makes up Monday racing after a pretty exciting weekend.  BUT it’s only two sleeps until the York Ebor Festival....I can’t wait! 

Aiden O’Brien, fresh from his double at Arlington, has spent a few quid in entry fees for his owners with no less than 36 in total.   It will be interesting to see what jockeys Ballydoyle will use (apart from Heffernan, O’Donoghue and O’Brien Jr) with no Ryan Moore available ....apart from Jamie Spencer that is!   Wednesday's O'Brien runners will all be ridden by the stable jockeys

If you missed Jamie and Cape Blanco burning up the turf in the Arlington Million late on Saturday night, you can see it here:

Monday’s selections are:

Kempton

16:00     Echo Ridge (9.6) UP

16:00     Swift Breeze (6.4) UP

16:30     Ssafa (17.5) UP

Thirsk

15:45     Jeu De Vivre (8.2) 2^nd

Not so good today - no winners!!  and a loss of -4


By the way, Ssafa is also the acronym for the Soldiers, Sailors, Airmen and Families Associations who are having a pretty good fun midnight march on the 02 September in Aldershot to raise ££££s for the charity. 

I could have put up a pretty landscape pic of Echo Ridge in Arizona but have gone for the much more attractive alternative................

Thirsk 15:15 Class 5 0-75 Handicap 3yo+

A mile around Thirsk on good to soft is not all of these runners’ cups of tea – particularly if drawn wide! 

Call of Duty stands out immediately with the plum draw (front runner) and the booking of Paul Hanagan.  The trainer uses her daughter to ride in the main so this booking looks significant.  His last visit here resulted in a 2^nd from the very worst of the outside draw.  He’s probably a little flattered by that though as the first four places were all filled by those with high draws since those drawn low wasted their advantages by being slow away.  Call Of Duty carries an extra 8lbs on his back today but Hanagan (as we know!) is worth that – however I’d be happier if this was a 7f race! 

Kerry’s Requiem is dropping down in class today and just qualifies for this 0-75 race after a string of ‘could do betters’.  Her two best performances this year have been over a mile and she’ll have no trouble with the softer ground.  She seems suited but a sharper track with wins at Goodwood and Windsor so I’ve no concerns on that score.  Julie Burke is a claimer who I rate highly (she lost her claim long since in Ireland so is a lot more experienced than first appears!) and her 5lb will help negate her hefty load.  She ought to get the tow she needs with plenty of front runners drawn close by – so I can see her running a big race.  As always with big fields and her running style, she’ll need some luck.

There are plenty of good horses with poor draws (Elijah Pepper, Thinking, Keys of Cyprus) but I’m going to stick with a low drawn runner and go with Kerry’s Requiem each way.

Kerry’s Requiem  10/1 each way RESULT 3rd 

Monday’s Selections, Review & Results (08 August)

Monday's Selections include Polemica ridden by Umberto Rispoli:

Lingfield

15:00     Country Road NON RUNNER

17:00     Valmina 2^nd

Thirsk

20:30     Soprano 1^st

Windsor

19:10     Viva Vettori NON RUNNER

Wolverhampton

15:15     Glenridding 1^st

15:15     Polemica 2^nd

Another good day with a profit of +5.15

If you’re wondering who Umberto Rispoli is, he’s a 22 year old Italian (really – with a name like that?!) who has been champion jockey in Italy for the past 2 years.  He holds the record for most winners (245) in Italy having beaten Gianfranco Dettori’s previous record of 229 winners.

Gianfranco riding Wollow

Umberto’s no stranger to the UK having spent 07-08 here riding for Marco Botti.  So he knows his way around a horse and the UKs racecourses and there could be some value in his rides for the first few days while he’s still under the radar.  

Umberto winning on Aoife Alainn 

 

Windsor 18:10 6f Class 3 2yo Conditions Stakes

This looks to be a decent enough race with a couple of the runners already having contested graded races - North Star Boy and Rebellious Guest.  North Star Boy finished ahead of Rebellious Guest in the Coventry at Ascot in June but did have the advantage of a kinder draw (drawn 20 where the winner was drawn 19, 2^nd drawn 23 and 3^rd drawn 22).  I would suggest a slight question mark over the 6f trip for North Star Boy?  Of the field only Rebellious Guest holds Gr1 entries for the future (6f & 7f) and is probably better than the result for the Coventry shows, with Queally taking it easy on him once he knew they were beaten.

Compton ran an impressive maiden FTO and although the form of that race has since been franked, it was only a class 5 race so there’s an element of the unknown and he does lack experience despite the plum draw.  He could be anything!

Sixx is patently the stables second string despite the booking of Kieren Fallon but it’s usually worth taking a closer look when Hannon runs two in the same race (particularly when the apparent second string has a decent jockey booking).  He came home last of six (by 29L) on his penultimate outing over this same distance, faring much better LTO which would suggest he needs at least 7f.  I wonder if Fallon might make the most of his proven stamina and take him to the front to dictate the pace – a move which he's a bit good at lately – not least yesterday in Dusseldorf!

I have this between North Star Boy and Rebellious Guest.  I’ll take a chance that the stable will rediscover it’s form with Rebellious Guest and perhaps a small and very speculative each way on Sixx because it's a Monday and who the hell knows what will happen in Monday racing - just look at the 14:45 at Wolves!

Rebellious Guest 9/2 (win) 1^st

Sixx 20/1 (ew) WD (Under vets advice)