Monday's Selections & Results - 10 October

Well today (Monday) the new “7 hits for flat and 8 hits for jumps with no more than 5 in the final furlong” rule.  I shall say no more since the press will be full of it and I had my say a few days ago on this blog!  ......except listen out for the clunking as the jockeys weigh in (that's the abacus up the sleeve making the noise)

Fallon is in action at Salisbury today and has a 43% strike rate here – pretty damn good by anyone’s reckoning – if this works out then his 7 rides should produce 3 wins and he really needs every one if he’s still to be in with a chance of the jockeys title.  His record on 2yo and 3yo here is marginally even better so the maidens are worth a look .....although on the flip side the trainers’ records for 2yo races all stand at a most un-hot  and ice cold 0%!

Todays selections are:

Yarmouth

15:15  Soap Wars (12) 2^nd

16:20  Bogey Hole (5.2) UP

Salisbury

16:30  Mabait (5.4) UP

17:00  Mini’s Destination (17) UP

17:30  Billy Buttons (5.8) UP

Windsor

16:40  Grumeti (4.2) NR (although the trainers recent record tempers enthusiasm a bit!)

Not a good day with -5 loss

Australia
Bogey Hole - a man-made swimming pool dug from the ocean rocks by convicts in 1820 in Newcastle, New South Wales 

In case I forget to mention Dr Finley at Newcastle (17:00) tomorrow 11 October then I’ll mention it now!!

Monday’s Selections & Results – 03 October

Back to blighty and Monday racing today after the excitement of Longchamp ... but there are a couple of class 3 races at Pontefract (wahay....dizzy heights!).  Just two selections today but I've added four 'reviews' below too.

Today’s duo of system selections are:

Windsor

16:00  Avon River 2nd 

Pontefract

15:40  Colour Vision  1st

A small profit but a profit nonetheless of +0.4

14:30 Windsor

Crystal Etoile should manage this race on her first return to a class 5 on ground, distance and track that suits  She’s been lightly raced and this should be a good opportunity to shed her maiden tag.

Crystal Etoile     13/2   UP (4th)

  

15:00 Windsor

This looks a trappier race than the previous division 1.  Aviso looks likely to go off favourite for this and has everything in his favour except his record (or lack of) on sharper tracks – all of his wins and places have been on traditional galloping courses.  On his one and only attempt at anything else (Brighton 8f, good to firm and class 5) he finished up turning the lights out.  I don’t know his physical characteristics (if anyone does then please comment below!) but I bet he’s a big beastie!!  He’s also been pretty highly tried since joining David Evans in March so there are a few negatives here....but then he does look the best of a bad (for bad read knackered!) bunch. 

I’m going to put an each way saver on Indian Mist for this first foray into handicaps.  The handicapper hasn’t been too fierce with her, she has showed she likes Windsor (albeit over 2f too far) and Roger Varian is firing a few winners out currently.  Andrea Atzeni has a nice 60% (6/10) when riding for him as well.

Aviso             win UP (I should have listened to my concerns above!)

Indian Mist    each way NR

16:10 Pontefract

At first I was going to suggest that No Poppy needs Auto Mac to run to give here the pace to aim at but then I looked again and saw that she won at Ripon from the front last August!  She’s been contesting far better races than this all year and not disgraced herself at all when getting her conditions – which she should today.  She was 3 ahead of Poyle Judy at Warwick in July and there’s nothing to convince me that  the form should be reversed.

No Poppy UP (Poyle Judy did indeed reverse the form )

16:20 Warwick

Has anyone else spotted the Magnier, Tabor & Smith son of Galileo (Effervesce) here ...at a class 5 race at Warwick.... on a Monday?  What’s going on?  This is messing with the whole equilibrium of Monday racing  She’s come from Sir Michael to David Pipe’s having been bought by the aforementioned trio of gold plated connections when you would have thought they’d have kept her there .... the mystery deepens!  Surely hurdles aren't in mind down the line.  She certainly would appear to need further than the mile in this race at present so although she does come out top of my 'sheet' and has the gilt edged pedigree, I will swerve her today.

I’ll opt for Full Bloom – trained by Gerard Butler (who I have just explained to my daughter does not arrive at the racetrack in full Spartan regalia with a fake Irish accent) and who has an impressive 36% strike rate here

Full Bloom UP (4th)

You may notice the common theme in the four races above which is class5 1mile.  According to my records, these are the races that I have most success with so let's see....

The champion jockey title race is gaining a little more momentum again with Fallon closing the gap with Hanagan to just 9 now.   I have to say that Fallon’s agent is boxing clever here and not only cracking the whip with almost full books of rides at two meets per day (how on earth can anyone keep that up without a rest?) but also picking the meetings where Fallon has the best strike rates.  It’s exciting but I cannot shake off the feeling that Hanagan is not breaking a sweat over this.....

140                     131                   124 

     56                         55                   25 

Saturday’s Selections – 27 August

Silvestre De Sousa was back with a bang bang bang yesterday – he’s now on 103 after his four timer while Hanagan had a double - taking his tally up to 113 and overtaking Fallon again, who drew a blank and remains on 100.  Both Hanagan and SdS were riding ‘oop North whereas Fallon was at Newmarket.  It does seem to be more competitive racing at HQ so this can only be detrimental to a title chase but whatever it is; it creates more great fun for us viewers and punters.  I commented earlier in the day that I wouldn’t be at all surprised should a few dubious borderline decision bans go against Fallon if he gets a bit too close to the title....he’s not Mr BHA’s favourite person is he?  Then again, they’ll have Racing For Change begging them not to as it must be the best PR they could hope for. 

Three Smiley Jockeys

Useless fact for the day is that SdS hadn’t even sat on a racehorse until he was 18.  On a completely non-racing related (but similar late-starter) note, Chris Rea didn’t learn to play guitar until he was 19!

The Betfair Celebration Mile (Goodwood 15:20) has to be one of the closest contests for quite some while.......I’ve been poring over Poet’s Voice and Dubawi Gold for getting on an hour and cannot split the two.....it will be fascinating to watch!   Dubawi Gold is currently at 4/1 with ¼ odds for the place so I’ve taken the ‘careful’ approach and backed DG each way with a cover bet on Poet’s Voice.  If neither of these two win then I’m out of pocket but whatever the outcome then I’ll have enjoyed a great race I’m sure.

Today’s system selections are:

Goodwood

14:15   Motrice (3.5) 1^st

17:00   Admirable Spirit (8.4) 3^rd

Newmarket

16:00   Northside Prince (10.5) UP

Windsor

18:40   Dux Scholar (4.7) 2^nd

19:40   Mrs Dee Bee (3.7) 2^nd

^{Placeitis today - down by -1.5 today} 

PS:  I always put a 10p e/w accumulator on as well as singles.....one day it might !!

Windsor 18:10 toteexacta August Stakes (Listed) 3yo plus, 1m 3f 135y, Class 1

With two of the favourites out, there are just six runners left in this race with some darn good jockeys so it’ll be great to watch the tactics!

Shimmering Surf hasn’t been seen on a track this sharp and with the stable not firing on all cylinders, I don’t want to pay to find out if she does so line through here.  Luv U Too has never tackled this far and her breeding (and last run) doesn’t suggest it’ll suit – line through her.

Enroller hasn’t won since April 2009 and not run since October 2009 – I’d be more inclined to think she has a chance if the trainer had more than 1 winner from his last 22 runners although the booking of Frankie is very much a positive.  It would one hell of a training feat  if he won this!

Elusive Pimpernel hasn’t won since April 2010, but this is a step down in class.  However, he’s another who may not like this idiosyncratic track although the distance and going should present no problems.  He’s usually held up though and I can’t see that he’ll get the pace to aim for in this race. 

Sirvino is a C&D winner who was crucified by the handicapper for that 7L win in June.  He’s gradually coming back down towards a winnable mark and could be about to strike.

Opera Gal is the only guaranteed front runner in the field (from not a bad draw) and although Windsor is new to her, I have no fears that she’ll handle it having performed well at both Chester and Epsom.  The distance and going are no problem.  Her 2^nd LTO at Salisbury was no disgrace (she beat Seta into 3^rd) and she is reunited with Jimmy Fortune again.

I have this between Sirvino and Opera Gal with the latter edging it...just!

Opera Gal   4/1 1^st

Monday’s Selections, Review & Results (08 August)

Monday's Selections include Polemica ridden by Umberto Rispoli:

Lingfield

15:00     Country Road NON RUNNER

17:00     Valmina 2^nd

Thirsk

20:30     Soprano 1^st

Windsor

19:10     Viva Vettori NON RUNNER

Wolverhampton

15:15     Glenridding 1^st

15:15     Polemica 2^nd

Another good day with a profit of +5.15

If you’re wondering who Umberto Rispoli is, he’s a 22 year old Italian (really – with a name like that?!) who has been champion jockey in Italy for the past 2 years.  He holds the record for most winners (245) in Italy having beaten Gianfranco Dettori’s previous record of 229 winners.

Gianfranco riding Wollow

Umberto’s no stranger to the UK having spent 07-08 here riding for Marco Botti.  So he knows his way around a horse and the UKs racecourses and there could be some value in his rides for the first few days while he’s still under the radar.  

Umberto winning on Aoife Alainn 

 

Windsor 18:10 6f Class 3 2yo Conditions Stakes

This looks to be a decent enough race with a couple of the runners already having contested graded races - North Star Boy and Rebellious Guest.  North Star Boy finished ahead of Rebellious Guest in the Coventry at Ascot in June but did have the advantage of a kinder draw (drawn 20 where the winner was drawn 19, 2^nd drawn 23 and 3^rd drawn 22).  I would suggest a slight question mark over the 6f trip for North Star Boy?  Of the field only Rebellious Guest holds Gr1 entries for the future (6f & 7f) and is probably better than the result for the Coventry shows, with Queally taking it easy on him once he knew they were beaten.

Compton ran an impressive maiden FTO and although the form of that race has since been franked, it was only a class 5 race so there’s an element of the unknown and he does lack experience despite the plum draw.  He could be anything!

Sixx is patently the stables second string despite the booking of Kieren Fallon but it’s usually worth taking a closer look when Hannon runs two in the same race (particularly when the apparent second string has a decent jockey booking).  He came home last of six (by 29L) on his penultimate outing over this same distance, faring much better LTO which would suggest he needs at least 7f.  I wonder if Fallon might make the most of his proven stamina and take him to the front to dictate the pace – a move which he's a bit good at lately – not least yesterday in Dusseldorf!

I have this between North Star Boy and Rebellious Guest.  I’ll take a chance that the stable will rediscover it’s form with Rebellious Guest and perhaps a small and very speculative each way on Sixx because it's a Monday and who the hell knows what will happen in Monday racing - just look at the 14:45 at Wolves!

Rebellious Guest 9/2 (win) 1^st

Sixx 20/1 (ew) WD (Under vets advice)

Sunday’s Selections & Results (07 August)

No system selections for the Curragh as I don’t have enough data for this track but Leicester and Windsor picks are below:

Windsor

14:00     Charlie Fable (6) UP

15:30     Choral Festival (6.8) 1^st

Leicester

14:45     Night Trade (1.81) 1^st

16:45     King Of Swords (8.6) UP

Nice 2 winners today Profit +4.61

No pics today - I did search for Choral Festival and got dozens of groups of Welsh singers, as for Night Trade...you don't want to know.!!

Leicester  15:45 10f Handicap Class 4

Destiny Of A Diva is back down to a winnable mark after a brief foray into Class 3 company.  She’s a C&D winner who really should have won here LTO but was stuck behind traffic.   She is carrying 8lbs less today and looks to have a good chance.

Resentful Angel is a horse who has done all of her winning on the AW although she did manage a 2^nd on turf but that was a year ago on good to soft.

Scamperdale looks to have his conditions today.  Brian Baugh has a healthy strike rate here and the stable is ticking over nicely.  James Rogers is new to the equation but has been riding well recently with a couple of winners (one for this trainer).  My slight concern is that he won’t have the race run to suit.  San Cassiano is carrying a 6lb penalty which isn’t beyond him and you don’t often see Ruth Carr run any of hers here.  Another  who had until LTO been mixing with classier company and he could just make all today!

San Cassiano  4/1 1^st

(with a saver on Scamperdale 3/1 – who am I to argue with PriceWise?)