Tuesday's Selections & Results - 27 September

Since I have your attention, have a look to the right of this post and you'll spot a poll that I've added where you can vote for your winner of the Arc

Ryan Moore is back in the saddle and racing on Friday at Ascot.  He was rumoured to be lined up to take the ride on Workforce in the Arc on Sunday having ridden him at Sandown last week so this will be the final test.  He has made a very rapid recovery given that the initial prognosis was so bleak - he must be exceptionally fit to have healed so quickly!  Let's hope it all goes well and he's not coming back too soon.  (I bet the other jocks will be so pleased to see that happy smiley face back in the weighing room.......

Tuesday's Selections are:  
I have tried to blame Barista's close 2nd on the new whip ruling but was two week too early!

Chepstow

15:00  Barista 2^nd

15:30  Cape Kimberley UP

16:30  Two Turtle Doves UP

17:30  Sweet World 1^st

Ayr

15:40  Dispol Grand 3^rd

16:10  Chookie Avon 2^nd

A pretty rainbow of results but still just the one winner and a small profit of +1

A lot of Monday's Hamilton runners are having a quick turnaround and are out again today at Ayr:  Northern Bolt, Bonnie Prince Blue, Babich Bay, Royal Blade, Captain Scooby, Nicholas Pocock.  
I dare say the list will be depleted in the morning but if he turns out then Babich Bay in the 15:10 is worth a second look back at a more suitable 6f.  Unplaced 
I wouldn't be backing Captain Scooby again with the double penalty though - he'll be a short price and if I was prone to laying then that's what I'd be doing! Good job I don't lay horses!  Captain Scooby won for the 2nd time in 2 days but at least it was a selection the first time.

Chepstow 16:00 Class 5 0-75 Handicap 3y+
Encore Une Fois looks to have the conditions he needs here - he was just denied LTO and had Fallon been aboard I think he would have prevailed.  Fallon partners Cumani's only runner here today and showed he enjoyed the soft ground at Brighton which he'll have again today.  He is drawn in stall 9 and should be well positioned to get the tow he would benefit from.  And (completely irrelevantly to his performance) he is a lovely looking horse!!


Encore Une Fois  9/2 3rd (but still a lovely looking horse)

I meant to put this up for Monday morning but was distracted with picking 3 winners (cough cough):  

138                   124                    122

      56                          53                    25 

Finally, apologies if I've given anyone a headache with the flashy arrow at the top !

Monday's Selections & Results - 26 September

Luca Cumani has two runners on Monday.  Field Of Dream is running at Hamilton with JP riding and Qahriman is running at Ffos Las with Fallon riding.  I don't think it takes a genius to figure out which of these two is his best hope!  Thirditis in both instances.

Bath 14:30 - Course specialist My Meteor looks as if he shouldn't have any problem taking this.  He's up just a couple of lbs from his last run (over 6f and on good to soft).  David Kenny who was up on that occasion is taking off 5lb.  I just wish it was the 18 September though.  Both of his previous wins were exactly 10 days after his previous run!

My Meteor  13/8 2^nd

Today’s system selections are:

Hamilton

14:40  Northern Bolt (3.45) 3^rd

15;10  Smart Step (4.7) 1^st

15:40  Penitent (3.25) 1^st

16:40  Captain Scooby (4.5) 1^st

Ffos Las

16:20  Rastaban (4.1) UP

Bath

16:30  History Repeating (10) UP

A good day with 3 from 6 and profit of +6.45

William Haggas has a 40% strike rate at Hamilton and runs (our system selection) Penitent 1^st there in the 15:40.  He has a 50% strike rate at Ffos Las and runs (another system selection) Rastaban UP there in the 16:20.

Not that this is helping my cause to persuade anyone that I'm not a complete anorak when it comes to racing but last night I updated my 4000th race Excel spreadsheet .....(I promise that I wasn't that excited really!)

History Repeating?

 136                     124                    120

      56                        53                     25

Sunday's Selections - 18 September

Hamilton 15:40 6f Class 3 Totepool EBF Flower of Scotland Fillies Handicap
Jeannie Galloway really ought to have no trouble taking this after being denied 2nd on Friday at Ayr.  She won the race on the stands side only to be beaten a short head by the leader of the far side.  Conditions are almost identical (same jockey, class, weight, distance and slightly easier ground which won't trouble) but  the difference this time is that she raced just 2 days ago.  
If the race comes too soon for class act Jeannie then it could be set up for a closer.  There aren't many here - it's full of runners who like to race up front!  Just Ursula and Red Roar look almost certain to be held up.  Ursula has no sort of form on the soft going which leaves Red Road.  Now I wouldn't normally entertain a horse who's moving up two grades as well as an extra furlong (she usually contests 5f races) but she is feather weight - with Julie Burke claiming an additional value 5lbs she'll be a full 12lbs lower than the next lightest and - has had a couple of 2nds over 6f and will also like the going so there is a glimmer there and there could be one of those (apparently) inexplicable results in what could be a strangely run race!  
Jeannie Galloway  win  6/4 1st 
Red Roar                  each way  12/1 UP (4th)

I'll be having a family day tomorrow so unlikely to be adding any selections or much at all to my blog......and a nice long lie in!

With the jumps season upon us, I'll be spending some time over the next few days rediscovering  my jumpy-hurdly head as well as re-familiarising myself with the concept of 'obstacles'.  Those initial selections are probably kept to myself for a good few days until I'm back in the groove...... I am usually best at picking the winners in Class 4 2m and 2m 1f novice hurdles !

If Carlsberg made TV commercials for racing they'd all be like this absolutely brilliant one for the Qipco British Champions Day at Ascot on 15 October.  

It does just what advertising (or a really good girlfriend/boyfriend/wife/husband) should do and fills you with anticipation and desire:

It's even good enough to shut me up for a short while about the fact that Champions Day should never have been moved from HQ and relocated to somewhere easier access for all the investment bankers to reach (so they can drink champagne, eat and gamble without having to look at a live horse or paddock or breathe fresh air or even venture outside their corporately hospitable box and TV screens.....grrrrr!)

132                     117                    112

       56                         52                   25

Friday’s Selections, Review & Results – 26 August

Yesterday, I had a day off (as opposed to an off day!) and put up three videos of Frankel’s 2011 races to fill the gap.  Surprisingly, Frankel isn’t the top earning horse in the UK this year (Pour Moi with his Derby win takes the honours)....nor is he the the second but the third.  Nathaniel has won more prize money than Frankel – I was pretty amazed at that! 

And which jockey has won the most in prize money this year!  William Buick!  Hayley Turner has ridden more valuable winners than Paul Hanagan by virtue of her two Gr1 winners.....and although he’s French, Olivier Peslier has ridden 23 times this season in the UK without collecting a single centime.

Today normal service is resumed and today’s system selections are:

Newmarket

15:30   Manifestation (4.8) UP

17:05   Time Medicean (7.2) 2^nd

Thirsk

16:25   Captain Kylo (8.6) 2^nd

Hamilton

18:35   Cheeky Wee Red (6.4) UP

19:05   Valery Borzov (4.6) 1^st

19:35   Butler (6.4) UP

A loss today of -1.4 
Just for the record and in case anyone wants to know or reads!  My system selection strike rate is 25.12% with +17.49 level stakes profit this month and my review selection strike rate is 35.14% with a +34.36 level stakes profit this month.


By the way, Valery Borzov was an Olympic sprinter from the (then) USSR who won 2 golds, a silver and 2 bronze Olympic medals for  the men’s 100m and 200m and 4 x 100 relay in 1972 and 1976.

Equine Valery Borzov (Paul Hanagan)

Olympian Valery Borzov

We like Valery Borzovs to be at the front on the winning line..............

Newmarket 16:35 Grants Whisky Handicap 3yo only, 7f, Class 3

With the rain and the going changes (now soft all over) I love it!  Usually because it means that key runners (key to the running of the race rather than the favourites) drop out and it can leave the field wide open for a bit priced lone front runner for instance, to pick up the spoils...assuming they handle conditions.

There are currently two such front running beasties left in this: 

Fred Willetts is more often seen over a mile but not shown anything much on soft ground (although he has placed a couple of times on good to soft).  However that miler stamina could be very much a positive over 7f at Newmarket in the soft and as a natural front runner, he may just show enough speed at a lowly weight to pull a fast one!!    

Robemaker will handle conditions just fine having won on soft before and has also been seen racing over a mile.  His last visit here was dire (lower class, just 2lb higher and last by 52L) and doesn’t inspire much confidence that he likes this track though!  However, the drop may prove the key and he does have Buick aboard today.

These two are both big enough prices for an each way and there’s a case to be made for both – however tentative!

Unless one of these two drop out, I am on White Frost who is a C&D winner in a class 2 LTO with a nice C&D 2^nd on soft to his name.  He’s up a fair few pounds for these but did it so well and is so lightly raced that it shouldn’t present a problem for him. He seemingly can be ridden whichever way is asked of him so I expect he’ll track along just behind the front runners and take advantage at the end (expect = hope!)

White Frost         10/3 1st 

Robemaker         10/1 (pennies!) UP

Fred Willetts       33/1 (pennies!) UP

Monday’s Selections & Results – 22 August

Considering it was a Sunday, I did well on the domestic front and have learnt a lesson to boot - leave the French racing alone! (although I seem to do ok with Longchamp).

Neil Callan gave Jukebox Jury a superb ride yesterday to win the Kergorlay putting the rest of the field to sleep.  Dettori won on Dabirsim in the Prix Morny (I cannot believe I didn’t pick his ride after Saturday’s Frankie fest!).

It was sad news that Doreen Rackham passed away in the early hours of Sunday morning after a long illness.   There can’t possibly be much jumps action on the day of her funeral because the whole of Lambourn will be there to say goodbye.

There seems to be a spate of ‘poorly horse’ excuses for recent fav fails.  Laughing Lashes, Frederick Engels, Fame And Glory, Await The Dawn, Mannheim.  There is rumour of a virus at Ballydoyle......this would make sense of their poor recent run but then again so would the lack of a world class jockey riding any of their horses since Ryan Moore’s injury!  As for all these coughs, colds and viruses, I find it hard to believe that a top stable would send a horse to a high-profile race without scoping them (running blood tests) first.....maybe there’s no point until they invent a test for seconditis (ouch!)

Today’s system selections are:

Hamilton

17:05   I’m Super Too (4.7) 1^st

Kempton

15:45   Herminella (17) UP

16:45   Decana (7.4) UP

16:45   Tegan (3.95) 1^st

17:15   Golden Tempest (14) 1^st

An excellent Monday with profit of +17.65

16:45 Kempton?

Thursday’s Selections & Results (18 August)

Rule number one is never to select your horses that will carry your £££s while under the influence....rule number two (just been classified) is never to select your horses that will carry your £££s after 3 hours sleep!  Just the one winner yesterday and that was the system selection – which drifted nicely which for once was a plus and didn’t mean it’s leg had fallen off!!

I’ve had a shed load more sleep last night (try having an catnap at 5pm and waking at 4am, it does the trick and also means I'm getting old!)  so today I'm looking forward to better York results  - my (properly and alertly thought out) York selections did a whole lot better today - all placed or won (see bottom).......

For now the system selections are:

Selections are:

York

15:05     Pintura (9.8) 3^rd

Hamilton

16:05     Staff Sergeant (10) 4^th

Epsom

19:50     Downhill Skier (7) UP

Southwell

19:10     El Djebena (3.4) UP

19:40     Master Of Song (3) 3^rd

20:10     Suddenly Susan (3.75) UP

Not a great day for the system - 3 placed but no winners so -6.00

Jo’Burg is running today at Hamilton in the 16:05 Class 4 handicap.  He was a favourite of mine when trained by Lady Herries and it’s a little bit sad to see him here after contesting graded raced early in his career at Ascot, Goodwood and Newmarket. (I should point out that the system selection is Staff Sergeant - it's a good job or I might be tempted to put a emotional bet on....still might!)  Came trailing in 13^th!

Jo'Burg winning at Sandown May '10 with Ryan Moor steering

York 14:00 
DBS PREMIER YEARLING STAKES (CLASS 2) (2yo) Winner £136,868 CH4
Good To Soft 6f Number of runners: 20

There's no getting away from Crown Dependancy in this - the move back up to 6f should be ideal, the ground should be ok and the Hannon/Hughes combo in 2yo races is never to be sniffed at.  At 2/1 in a 20 runner 2yo field, the odds are a bit skinny though (anything could and often does happen in running).  I quite like Roger Sez as an each way alternative in case the pace is on the low side of the draw - she has a win under her belt in this class and form on the ground, distance and LH track.  She got in trouble LTO with Neil Callan but still managed to win. Reunited with David Allen who has ridden 2 of her 3 wins today.  Looks value at 14/1 and fingers crossed she doesn't get stuck behind a wall!  I'll be backing both.
Crown Dependancy  2/1 UP
Roger Sez  14/1UP

York 14:30 Fire Lily 6/1 The going looks softer than given here and Wachman's only entry of the festival.  Tabor, Smith, Magnier owned filly with proven stamina and win on Y/S 2^nd

York 15:05 Pintura 15/2 My system selection and looking more closely, I can see nothing else that I like better.  3^rd
York 15:40 Blue Bunting 11/4 Initially I liked Crystal Capella for this but I've changed my mind (Rule #3 - add to first paragraph!).  In this small field a higher draw should be an advantage so...1^st

York 16:15 Set To Music 8/1 Step up to a mile and a half shouldn't be any problem.  JP has ridden 3x and had 2 wins and a 3rd - the 3rd being first run of season so forgiven.  Strange that Hayley isn't up but I guess this is a pointer.   She won better than the formbook shows at Notts LTO and will prefer this ground.  Seems a big price & can't imagine an ew bet is too risky! 1^st

York 16:50 Deauville Flyer 5/1 Thankfully I got on this before PriceWise spoiled the party  price.  Much classier horse than the rest of the field and he loves it here with stamina/ground not a problem with Fallon to  get to work at the business end. 3^rd