After a frantic week, I have an entire week to chill, wind down and concentrate on fun things at last.....like racing, the Derby and visiting Haydock on Saturday!
I've been following the jockey bookings for Haydock this week and it's been a fun source of clues for the Derby jockey bookings.
Mirco Demuro had been down to ride just about all of Mark Johnston's runners - even when he's had 3-4 entries which he might even have managed if he'd ridden like the guy on the left there.
Frankie was down to ride at Haydock (as well as Barzalona) back on Tuesday - sadly it didn't take a psychic to work out who of the two would be sent to Epsom. You really cannot blame Godolphin for bringing in some younger fresher talent to the stable. I'm sure Frankie understands this perfectly even though he wants to continue race riding for another 4-5 years (and after his riding at Sandown Thursday night he certainly has a few years left!) These few years will give his heirs apparent the time to learn and refine their craft so they can be certain of the longevity of career and instinctive skill and timing in the saddle that he has and I'd like to hope that he'll help them achieve this and pass down a few nuggets of wisdom. If you want to see Frankie winning the Heron Stakes on Cogito (and beating Barzalona on the Godolphin horse Irish History) you are able to watch on the Jockey Club site here.
Thursday was a day of brilliant rides and Jason Maguire gave DJ Milan a most brilliant ride to get him over the line first at Wetherby. He and Overturn got to carry the Olympic torch into Chester racecourse on Tuesday.
Back to the flat today though and Friday is the first day of the Epsom Derby Festival so I'm going to concentrate on this unique track that has the fastest sprint races in the world - today so back to the business in hand....
13:40 PRINCESS ELIZABETH STAKEs (GROUP 3)(CLASS 1) (3yo+) 1m114y
A real puzzle to start with!
Joviality is a an interesting runner having won the Musidora at York and also run in a the Gr1 Falmouth stakes last year at Newmarket and not disgraced herself. York and Newmarket is a very different tracks though and her form in all on galloping tracks so it's anyone's guess how she copes here and she may have wanted a little more rain. She also hasn't run this season and this is more of a concern to me as Gosden's horses generally need their first run back.
Barefoot Lady will shoot off to the front to make the most of her stamina
Lay Time has not made an appearance this season and I can't tell if she'll need this but Andrew Balding had sent out quite a few winners this season who have been making their seasonal reappearance so I'm not too concerned on that score. She's on her highest ever mark but I tend to give weight a little less importance on tight tracks like Epsom so she could get away with it. More of a concern is how she'll cope with the track - all her running has been on right handed at galloping courses but if she does, she has a favourites chance.
Mark Prescott's record here is impressive at 47% (9 wins from 19 runners) so this alone warrants a very close look at Clinical. She hasn't been seen since last November but will be fighting fit. I just wish she had a better draw! (picky!)
The other two top course trainers in this race are Paul D'Arcy (Night Lily) and Hughie Morrison (Valencha) - both with outsiders and of the two Night Lily is probably of most interest with a good draw, a liking for the ground with the added bonus of Jim Crowley up (he rides very well here ). I think if her last race had been a mile then she would have won, the ground is fine and she has shown winning and placing form on sharp courses so ought to handle Epsom. Worth an each way at this price I think!
Elaine Burke is not one for flights of fancy so sending Boastful to Epsom for this means that she thinks there's a chance. The jury's out on the going - I think she'll cope and if the trainer doesn't think so then NR will appear next to her name soon enough! She won at Goodwood lto and on her first run since arriving on these shores so we know a sharp track is no problem. I think she has a live chance here. I'm struggling to split Lay Time and Boastful but on balance I'll put my trust in Yorkshire shrewdness and Boastful.
- Boastful UP
- Night Lily e/w or place only UP
14:15 INVESTEC WEALTH & INVESTMENT HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (4yo+) 1m2f18y
I am not too hopeful of any horse drawn low at this distance and a field this size so they aren't getting too much consideration unless they're speedier than a very fast speedy bullet!!
Now in this race, Gosden's runner Gatewood has had a run this season which should make the difference. He has no questions marks over distance and going, is lightly raced and has performed well at Windsor suggesting he'll cope here. There has to be a reason that Rumh went for the St Ledger last year and that must be that the trainer thought he was up to it and since that trainer is bin Suroor then he should know a thing or two! Couple this with Frankie's current mission (or triple it with Suroor's 42% strike rate here with 4yo+ runners) to prove he's still got it and he is worth close consideration but may need this run. There was enough about License To Till to have a second look but overall he looks to have been campaigned so hard this season already that he must be knackered!
Resurge won this last year and can seemingly win on any ground. My only concern is that he's never won races back to back but apart from that looks to be on a handy mark (2lbs less than last year) and should have a good shout. Creme Anglaise (custard to you and me!) has a nice draw, a Hayley and has come down just that bit enough in the weights that makes her a winning proposition. The downside was in the last sentence though "her". She's up against the boys here and I don't think will be strong enough.
- Gatewood 1st
- Resurge
UP
- Rumh e/w
UP
14:50 INVESTEC DIOMED STAKES (GROUP 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 1m114y
This one is easy! Worthadd (Sir Mark Prescott with his exceptional record here) has a good draw, a five times Italian Champion Jockey Mirco on board who has ridden him for all nine wins and if he can negotiate Baden Baden successfully then Epsom should not be too scary. Course and distance no problem and he has form on good and good to firm so at evens, this looks great value.
15:25 INVESTEC MILE HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-105) 1m114y
Boogie Shoes is the favourite here but I think he may need a couple of pounds from he handicapper. Highland Knight can be forgiven his last run on soft at Newbury which probably came too soon after his third a fortnight before. He has a good chance of going one better than last year I think from a far better draw this time.
Initially I thought kieren Fallon was doing 8-6 for Borug (his lowest weight in a year) and then I spotted that he's surpassing that with 8-5 for Prince Jock in this race. He rides Epsom beautifully so notice may need taking of this fact alone?
Capaill Liath is being ridden by Amy Ryan (right) for her father - a combination which I particularly take notice of and especially in big (ish) field handicaps at festival meetings! He won last time out under Amy and from his last two runs is ready to tackle a mile again.
- Highland Knight 1st
- Prince Jock e/w UP
- Capaill Liath
e/w
UP
16:05 INVESTEC OAKS (GROUP 1) (FILLIES) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m4f10y
At least this race has a field in double figures (unlike the Derby with 9)! Over 12f at Epsom I take a very close look at the middle drawn runners - in this case Betterbetterbetter and Shirocco Star simply because the proportion of winners from here is over double that you'd expect! 42.86% with the average being 20%. however they have two of the lowliest ratings in the field so this stat/theory may not bear up this time. However, I may throw a few pennies each way at both in the hope of a place (you never know, strange things can happen with O'Brien horses)!
Vow is a horse I backed nicely last time out when she won at Kempton despite hanging all over the place. She won't be able to win if she does that today and I worry that the experience needed to iron out this 'wrinkle' won't be in place after just two races. I would have both The Fugue and Coquet ahead of her on paper - although Coquet is back very soon after a hard fought win last time out and it's debateable whether she will have recovered fully after 8 days.
PS: I'm sure if my daughter was around she'd be advising me to look for a 3yo carrying 9st!
- The Fugue 3rd
- Vow UP (4th)
- Shirocco Star 2nd (so close!) & Betterbetterbetter UP both small e/w for the draws!
16:50 INVESTEC SURREY STAKES (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (3yo) Good 7f
With the departure of Fallen For You (not eaten up), I have this between three: Justineo, Balty Boys and Producer. Justineo is lacking a recent run but 4/7 of Haggas's recent winners have won first time out this season and the stable is on fire right now. His breeding suggest that this 7f trip will suit nicely and he's sure to have strengthened up over the winter - should be a cut above the rest here. Balty Boys may have just dropped down enough to win again on his current mark - he's pretty much a confirmed front runner and I would have liked to have seen confirmed 7f stamina to go along with this. The added fly in the ointment may be course winner Producer who also likes to race up front which could set it up for Justineo who is likely to be stalking just behind.
- Justineo 2nd
- Producer 1st
Got it the wrong way around but pleased that I read the race pretty much spot on..
17:25 INVESTEC ASSET MANAGEMENT HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (3yo 0-100) Good 7f
There is no draw advantage to speak of over 7f here at Epsom so no clues there. I shall refer the venerable reader to my earlier comment about the Ryans and handicaps which brings Laffan heavily in to the equation here and is certainly the better of the family chances here today!
Van Ellis cost 140K gns and is the most expensive piece of horseflesh in the race along with Prince Alzain who at one time cost 200K gn sbut depreciated faster than driving a Mercedes off a forecourt and was unsold at 40K gns lat April. Van Ellis is very lightly raced but the little that we have seen of him doesn't give any clues as to how he'll handle this track. He didn't get home over 7f lto at Newmarket but this won't test the stamina quite so much - still it's a worry for a horse who looks to be a front runner though Fallon may drop him in just off the pace to get some cover and then pounce! Sholaan from the "can do no wrong at the moment" stable of Haggas has no issues with the distance or going but is a 'gallopy' horse who probably won't be seen at his best here.
- Laffan 1st
- Van Ellis e/w 2nd
