The Fairytale Derby Blog

I'll be looking for a decent each way bet on these pages - or in other words, any horse other than Australia and who therefore offers a bit of value.  Most bookies are also offering a 'without the favourite' market as well.

I have been studying the weather forecasts as much as I have the form book for these picks and depending on which meteorological pundit you listen to, Epsom could have thunder, lightening, heavy rain, light rain, showers, sunshine or merely a gentle wafting breeze.  One thing is for sure there will be neither snow nor Red Galileo in the winner's enclosure at 4.05pm..... perhaps I shouldn't have said that!  Anyway, I've taken an educated guess that the going is unlikely to be any worse than good to soft but at this level, any horse that their trainer allows to run is going to perform on the going.

The Ballydoyle Contingent

I have also taken an educated guess that the words coming forth from trainers that hail from Tipperary should sometimes be taken with a large pinch of sodium chloride.  It wouldn't be the first time that 'the best horse we have ever had' is beaten by a stablemate.  

Aidan O'Brien has four runners this year - Kingfisher is turning up to ensure a true gallop and Australia, Geoffrey Chaucer and Orchestra are here running on merit.  

Aside from their maidens, it's very rare for a Derby winner to have any digit other than a 1 or an occasional 2 next to it's name - one exception in the past 10 years being Pour Moi. This isn't a good omen for Australia, Kingfisher or Geoffrey Chaucer but is good news for Orchestra, who won at the Chester Vase in May despite looking green but  which at least suggests he'll cope with this track.  He has won on both soft and good which gives him an additional brownie point.  Geoffrey Chaucer wasn't beaten by the going last time out but managed to find more traffic than the M25 on a Friday afternoon (no mean feat in a six horse race!) so maybe that 3 next to his hame can be upgraded - he is certainly a lot better than that result suggests.  

On an altogether different note, how weird must it be for Kieren Fallon to be riding against Joseph O'Brien who was a mere 12 year old when he joined Ballydoyle as stable jockey back in 2005?

The Godolphin Contingent

The boys in blue have three runners today (and a poor record in this race!).  There are two from the Appleby yard and one from Suroor.

This week the press have been full of stories of Charlie Appleby and his apparent mission to humiliate Mickael Barzalona and to a lesser extent, Silvestre De Sousa by employing the services of Kevin Manning (Sudden Move) and James Doyle (Pinzolo) to ride for him here. Doyler rode a double on Friday at Epsom so his confidence should at least be on a high. Of the two Appleby runners, Sudden Move is the one that he stated was his main Derby hope but it's Pinzolo who has the black type.  Neither can be given serious consideration though.

True Story is drawn in stall 1 and the last time that a horse won from this draw was Oath back in 1999.... coincidentally ridden by Kieren Fallon who is riding True Story today.  He won't be suited by any soft in the going description but he's worthy of close consideration and you can be certain that Fallon will be whistling like a banshee while riding like a demon in his attempt to win this - it would certainly make for a perfect ending to a Hollywood film of his life and career!

Northern Dancer - He's the Daddy!  

......of the prolific sire Sadler's Wells who in turn sired Montjeu and Galileo.  Six of the past ten Derby winners have been sired by either Montjeu or Galileo and Northern Dancer has played a part in the production of 13 of the past 20 including all of the last seven. They can all thank Northern Dancer for their go faster genes.  

Montjeu 

RPR
this stands for Racing Post Rating and not Rather Poor Return which is what you'd have got had you backed the 8/13 winner Camelot a couple of years ago.  Unsurprisingly no runner with an RPR of less than 118 has won the Derby.  Rather more surprisingly, no runner with an RPR above 130 has won - which would rule out Australia and Kingston Hill.

Draw

Any other race here at Epsom over a mile and half and the mid to high draw definitely has it.  However, in the Derby any draw bias goes out of the window as low, mid and high drawn runners have a fairly even spread.  

Price
The last time we saw a double figured winner in the Derby was 1998 when Luca Cumani trained High-Rise prevailed at odds of 20/1 - he was the only unbeaten runner in a pretty poor running.  

Horses For Courses

Many of these runners have stretched their legs here at Epsom for a gallop.  All bar one of the Irish winners from the past 20 years have won at Leopardstown before coming here Orchestra and Kingfisher are the only two Irish runners this year that haven't had a Leopardstown win.

Kingston Hill is s runner who, if there's any soft around tomorrow is very much a contender.  He has won his 1 mile races going away so the required stamina is evident but he was disappointing in the 2000 Guineas  on good to firm.  He had a run round Epsom and apparently handled the course.  His odds are currently around 17/2 but expect this to shorten if the rain comes.   

Down to business then!  As I mentioned at the top, I am looking for a value each way, place only or betting w/o the favourite pick since Australia (with his Derby winning sire and Oaks winning dam) is the class act this year and priced accordingly.  As long as the ground stays decent then he will go off a short favourite although I'd have liked to have seen him run (and win!) a 10f race before today.  If he wins then it'll be in the style of Camelot where he just holds on by the skin of his teeth so the value with Australia is likely to be found backing in running when I'm sure he'll hit much higher than his SP.  

Final Verdict :

Geoffrey Chaucer for the sensible logical alternative!
Kingston Hill if the chance-enhancing rain arrives
True Story for the fairytale ending

It Comes In Threes - 01 June (Epsom Day 1)

After a frantic week, I have an entire week to chill, wind down and concentrate on fun things at last.....like racing, the Derby and visiting Haydock on Saturday!

I've been following the jockey bookings for Haydock this week and it's been a fun source of clues for the Derby jockey bookings.  


Mirco Demuro had been down to ride just about all of Mark Johnston's runners - even when he's had 3-4 entries which he might even have managed if he'd ridden like the guy on the left there.



Frankie was down to ride at Haydock (as well as Barzalona) back on Tuesday - sadly it didn't take a  psychic to work out who of the two would be sent to Epsom.  You really cannot blame Godolphin for bringing in some younger fresher talent to the stable.  I'm sure Frankie understands this perfectly even though he wants to continue race riding for another 4-5 years (and after his riding at Sandown Thursday night he certainly has a few years left!) These few years will give his heirs apparent the time to learn and refine their craft so they can be certain of the longevity of career and instinctive skill and timing in the saddle that he has and I'd like to hope that he'll help them achieve this and pass down a few nuggets of wisdom.  If you want to see Frankie winning the Heron Stakes on Cogito (and beating Barzalona on the Godolphin horse Irish History) you are able to watch on the Jockey Club site here.

Thursday was a day of brilliant rides and Jason Maguire gave DJ Milan a most brilliant ride to get him over the line first at Wetherby. He and Overturn got to carry the Olympic torch into Chester racecourse on Tuesday.


Back to the flat today though and Friday is the first day of the Epsom Derby Festival so I'm going to  concentrate on this unique track that has the fastest sprint races in the world - today so back to the business in hand....

13:40 PRINCESS ELIZABETH STAKEs (GROUP 3)(CLASS 1) (3yo+) 1m114y


A real puzzle to start with!
Joviality is a an interesting runner having won the Musidora at York and also run in a the Gr1 Falmouth stakes last year at Newmarket and not disgraced herself.  York and Newmarket is a very different tracks though and her form in all on galloping tracks so it's anyone's guess how she copes here and she may have wanted a little more rain.  She also hasn't run this season and this is more of a concern to me as Gosden's horses generally need their first run back.  
Barefoot Lady will shoot off to the front to make the most of her stamina 
Lay Time has not made an appearance this season and I can't tell if she'll need this but Andrew Balding had sent out quite a few winners this season who have been making their seasonal reappearance so I'm not too concerned on that score.  She's on her highest ever mark but I tend to give weight a little less importance on tight tracks like Epsom so she could get away with it.  More of a concern is how she'll cope with the track - all her running has been on right handed at galloping courses but if she does, she has a favourites chance.  
Mark Prescott's record here is impressive at 47% (9 wins from 19 runners) so this alone warrants a very close look at Clinical.  She hasn't been seen since last November but will be fighting fit.  I just wish she had a better draw! (picky!)
The other two top course trainers in this race are Paul D'Arcy (Night Lily) and Hughie Morrison (Valencha) - both with outsiders and of the two Night Lily is probably of most interest with a good draw, a liking for the ground with the added bonus of Jim Crowley up (he rides very well here ).  I think if her last race had been a mile then she would have won, the ground is fine and she has shown winning and placing form on sharp courses so ought to handle Epsom.  Worth an each way at this price I think!
Elaine Burke is not one for flights of fancy so sending Boastful to Epsom for this means that she thinks there's a chance.  The jury's out on the going - I think she'll cope and if the trainer doesn't think so then NR will appear next to her name soon enough!  She won at Goodwood lto and on her first run since arriving on these shores so we know a sharp track is no problem.  I think she has a live chance here.  I'm struggling to split Lay Time and Boastful but on balance I'll put my trust in Yorkshire shrewdness and Boastful.

• Boastful UP 
• Night Lily e/w or place only  UP

14:15 INVESTEC WEALTH & INVESTMENT HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (4yo+) 1m2f18y 

I am not too hopeful of any horse drawn low at this distance and a field this size so they aren't getting too much consideration unless they're speedier than a very fast speedy bullet!!  

Now in this race, Gosden's runner Gatewood has had a run this season which should make the difference. He has no questions marks over distance and going, is lightly raced and has  performed well at Windsor suggesting he'll cope here.  There has to be a reason that Rumh went for the St Ledger last year and that must be that the trainer thought he was up to it and since that trainer is bin Suroor then he should know a thing or two!  Couple this with Frankie's current mission (or triple it with Suroor's 42% strike rate here with 4yo+ runners) to prove he's still got it and he is worth close consideration but may need this run.  There was enough about License To Till to have a second look but overall he looks to have been campaigned so hard this season already that he must be knackered! 

Resurge won this last year and can seemingly win on any ground.  My only concern is that he's never won races back to back but apart from that looks to be on a handy mark (2lbs less than last year) and should have a good shout.  Creme Anglaise (custard to you and me!) has a nice draw, a Hayley and has come down just that bit enough in the weights that makes her a winning proposition.  The downside was in the last sentence though "her".  She's up against the boys here and I don't think will be strong enough.  

• Gatewood 1st
• Resurge  UP
• Rumh e/w  UP

14:50 INVESTEC DIOMED STAKES (GROUP 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 1m114y 

This one is easy!  Worthadd (Sir Mark Prescott with his exceptional record here) has a good draw, a five times Italian Champion Jockey Mirco on board who has ridden him for all nine wins and if he can negotiate Baden Baden successfully then Epsom should not be too scary.  Course and distance no problem and he has form on good and good to firm so at evens, this looks great value.

• Worthadd UP :(

15:25 INVESTEC MILE HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-105) 1m114y

Boogie Shoes is the favourite here but I think he may need a couple of pounds from he handicapper.  Highland Knight can be forgiven his last run on soft at Newbury which probably came too soon after his third a fortnight before.  He has a good chance of going one better than last year I think from a far better draw this time.  

Initially I thought kieren Fallon was doing 8-6 for Borug (his lowest weight in a year) and then I spotted that he's surpassing that with 8-5 for Prince Jock in this race.  He rides Epsom beautifully so notice may need taking of this fact alone?

Capaill Liath is being ridden by Amy Ryan (right) for her father - a combination which I particularly take notice of and especially in big (ish) field handicaps at festival meetings!  He won last time out under Amy and from his last two runs is ready to tackle a mile again.

• Highland Knight 1st
• Prince Jock e/w UP
• Capaill Liath  e/w  UP

16:05 INVESTEC OAKS (GROUP 1) (FILLIES) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m4f10y

At least this race has a field in double figures (unlike the Derby with 9)!  Over 12f at Epsom I take a very close look at the middle drawn runners - in this case Betterbetterbetter and Shirocco Star simply because the proportion of winners from here is over double that you'd expect!  42.86% with the average being 20%.  however they have two of the lowliest ratings in the field so this stat/theory may not bear up this time.  However, I may throw a few pennies each way at both in the hope of a place (you never know, strange things can happen with O'Brien horses)!

Vow is a horse I backed nicely last time out when she won at Kempton despite hanging all over the place.  She won't be able to win if she does that today and I worry that the experience needed to iron out this 'wrinkle' won't be in place after just two races.  I would have both The Fugue and Coquet ahead of her on paper - although Coquet is back very soon after a hard fought win last time out and it's debateable whether she will have recovered fully after 8 days.  

PS:  I'm sure if my daughter was around she'd be advising me to look for a 3yo carrying 9st!

• The Fugue 3rd
• Vow UP (4th)
• Shirocco Star 2nd (so close!) & Betterbetterbetter  UP both small e/w for the draws!

16:50 INVESTEC SURREY STAKES (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (3yo) Good 7f

With the departure of Fallen For You (not eaten up), I have this between three:  Justineo, Balty Boys and Producer.  Justineo is lacking a recent run but 4/7 of Haggas's recent winners have won first time out this season and the stable is on fire right now.  His breeding suggest that this 7f trip will suit nicely and he's sure to have strengthened up over the winter - should be a cut above the rest here. Balty Boys may have just dropped down enough to win again on his current mark - he's pretty much a confirmed front runner and I would have liked to have seen confirmed 7f stamina to go along with this.  The added fly in the ointment may be course winner Producer who also likes to race up front which could set it up for Justineo who is likely to be stalking just behind.  

• Justineo 2nd
• Producer 1st

Got it the wrong way around but pleased that I read the race pretty much spot on..

17:25 INVESTEC ASSET MANAGEMENT HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (3yo 0-100) Good 7f

There is no draw advantage to speak of over 7f here at Epsom so no clues there.  I shall refer the venerable reader to my earlier comment about the Ryans and handicaps which brings Laffan heavily in to the equation here and is certainly the better of the family chances here today!  

Van Ellis cost 140K gns and is the most expensive piece of horseflesh in the race along with Prince Alzain who at one time cost 200K gn sbut depreciated faster than driving a Mercedes off a forecourt and was unsold at 40K gns lat April.  Van Ellis is very lightly raced but the little that we have seen of him doesn't give any clues as to how he'll handle this track.  He didn't get home over 7f lto at Newmarket but this won't test the stamina quite so much - still it's a worry for a horse who looks to be a front runner though Fallon may drop him in just off the pace to get some cover and then pounce!  Sholaan from the "can do no wrong at the moment" stable of Haggas has no issues with the distance or going but is a 'gallopy' horse who probably won't be seen at his best here.  

• Laffan 1st
• Van Ellis e/w 2nd