I'll be looking for a decent each way bet on these pages - or in other words, any horse other than Australia and who therefore offers a bit of value. Most bookies are also offering a 'without the favourite' market as well.
I have been studying the weather forecasts as much as I have the form book for these picks and depending on which meteorological pundit you listen to, Epsom could have thunder, lightening, heavy rain, light rain, showers, sunshine or merely a gentle wafting breeze. One thing is for sure there will be neither snow nor Red Galileo in the winner's enclosure at 4.05pm..... perhaps I shouldn't have said that! Anyway, I've taken an educated guess that the going is unlikely to be any worse than good to soft but at this level, any horse that their trainer allows to run is going to perform on the going.
The Ballydoyle Contingent
I have also taken an educated guess that the words coming forth from trainers that hail from Tipperary should sometimes be taken with a large pinch of sodium chloride. It wouldn't be the first time that 'the best horse we have ever had' is beaten by a stablemate.
Aidan O'Brien has four runners this year - Kingfisher is turning up to ensure a true gallop and Australia, Geoffrey Chaucer and Orchestra are here running on merit.
Aside from their maidens, it's very rare for a Derby winner to have any digit other than a 1 or an occasional 2 next to it's name - one exception in the past 10 years being Pour Moi. This isn't a good omen for Australia, Kingfisher or Geoffrey Chaucer but is good news for Orchestra, who won at the Chester Vase in May despite looking green but which at least suggests he'll cope with this track. He has won on both soft and good which gives him an additional brownie point. Geoffrey Chaucer wasn't beaten by the going last time out but managed to find more traffic than the M25 on a Friday afternoon (no mean feat in a six horse race!) so maybe that 3 next to his hame can be upgraded - he is certainly a lot better than that result suggests.
On an altogether different note, how weird must it be for Kieren Fallon to be riding against Joseph O'Brien who was a mere 12 year old when he joined Ballydoyle as stable jockey back in 2005?
The Godolphin Contingent
The boys in blue have three runners today (and a poor record in this race!). There are two from the Appleby yard and one from Suroor.
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True Story is drawn in stall 1 and the last time that a horse won from this draw was Oath back in 1999.... coincidentally ridden by Kieren Fallon who is riding True Story today. He won't be suited by any soft in the going description but he's worthy of close consideration and you can be certain that Fallon will be whistling like a banshee while riding like a demon in his attempt to win this - it would certainly make for a perfect ending to a Hollywood film of his life and career!
......of the prolific sire Sadler's Wells who in turn sired Montjeu and Galileo. Six of the past ten Derby winners have been sired by either Montjeu or Galileo and Northern Dancer has played a part in the production of 13 of the past 20 including all of the last seven. They can all thank Northern Dancer for their go faster genes.
RPR
this stands for Racing Post Rating and not Rather Poor Return which is what you'd have got had you backed the 8/13 winner Camelot a couple of years ago. Unsurprisingly no runner with an RPR of less than 118 has won the Derby. Rather more surprisingly, no runner with an RPR above 130 has won - which would rule out Australia and Kingston Hill.
Any other race here at Epsom over a mile and half and the mid to high draw definitely has it. However, in the Derby any draw bias goes out of the window as low, mid and high drawn runners have a fairly even spread.
Price
The last time we saw a double figured winner in the Derby was 1998 when Luca Cumani trained High-Rise prevailed at odds of 20/1 - he was the only unbeaten runner in a pretty poor running.
Kingston Hill is s runner who, if there's any soft around tomorrow is very much a contender. He has won his 1 mile races going away so the required stamina is evident but he was disappointing in the 2000 Guineas on good to firm. He had a run round Epsom and apparently handled the course. His odds are currently around 17/2 but expect this to shorten if the rain comes.
Down to business then! As I mentioned at the top, I am looking for a value each way, place only or betting w/o the favourite pick since Australia (with his Derby winning sire and Oaks winning dam) is the class act this year and priced accordingly. As long as the ground stays decent then he will go off a short favourite although I'd have liked to have seen him run (and win!) a 10f race before today. If he wins then it'll be in the style of Camelot where he just holds on by the skin of his teeth so the value with Australia is likely to be found backing in running when I'm sure he'll hit much higher than his SP.
Final Verdict :
Geoffrey Chaucer for the sensible logical alternative!
Kingston Hill if the chance-enhancing rain arrives
True Story for the fairytale ending
I have been studying the weather forecasts as much as I have the form book for these picks and depending on which meteorological pundit you listen to, Epsom could have thunder, lightening, heavy rain, light rain, showers, sunshine or merely a gentle wafting breeze. One thing is for sure there will be neither snow nor Red Galileo in the winner's enclosure at 4.05pm..... perhaps I shouldn't have said that! Anyway, I've taken an educated guess that the going is unlikely to be any worse than good to soft but at this level, any horse that their trainer allows to run is going to perform on the going.The Ballydoyle Contingent
Aidan O'Brien has four runners this year - Kingfisher is turning up to ensure a true gallop and Australia, Geoffrey Chaucer and Orchestra are here running on merit.
Aside from their maidens, it's very rare for a Derby winner to have any digit other than a 1 or an occasional 2 next to it's name - one exception in the past 10 years being Pour Moi. This isn't a good omen for Australia, Kingfisher or Geoffrey Chaucer but is good news for Orchestra, who won at the Chester Vase in May despite looking green but which at least suggests he'll cope with this track. He has won on both soft and good which gives him an additional brownie point. Geoffrey Chaucer wasn't beaten by the going last time out but managed to find more traffic than the M25 on a Friday afternoon (no mean feat in a six horse race!) so maybe that 3 next to his hame can be upgraded - he is certainly a lot better than that result suggests.
On an altogether different note, how weird must it be for Kieren Fallon to be riding against Joseph O'Brien who was a mere 12 year old when he joined Ballydoyle as stable jockey back in 2005?
The Godolphin Contingent
The boys in blue have three runners today (and a poor record in this race!). There are two from the Appleby yard and one from Suroor.
This week the press have been full of stories of Charlie Appleby and his apparent mission to humiliate Mickael Barzalona and to a lesser extent, Silvestre De Sousa by employing the services of Kevin Manning (Sudden Move) and James Doyle (Pinzolo) to ride for him here. Doyler rode a double on Friday at Epsom so his confidence should at least be on a high. Of the two Appleby runners, Sudden Move is the one that he stated was his main Derby hope but it's Pinzolo who has the black type. Neither can be given serious consideration though.
True Story is drawn in stall 1 and the last time that a horse won from this draw was Oath back in 1999.... coincidentally ridden by Kieren Fallon who is riding True Story today. He won't be suited by any soft in the going description but he's worthy of close consideration and you can be certain that Fallon will be whistling like a banshee while riding like a demon in his attempt to win this - it would certainly make for a perfect ending to a Hollywood film of his life and career!
Northern Dancer - He's the Daddy!
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| Montjeu |
this stands for Racing Post Rating and not Rather Poor Return which is what you'd have got had you backed the 8/13 winner Camelot a couple of years ago. Unsurprisingly no runner with an RPR of less than 118 has won the Derby. Rather more surprisingly, no runner with an RPR above 130 has won - which would rule out Australia and Kingston Hill.
Draw
Any other race here at Epsom over a mile and half and the mid to high draw definitely has it. However, in the Derby any draw bias goes out of the window as low, mid and high drawn runners have a fairly even spread.
Price
The last time we saw a double figured winner in the Derby was 1998 when Luca Cumani trained High-Rise prevailed at odds of 20/1 - he was the only unbeaten runner in a pretty poor running.
Horses For Courses
Many of these runners have stretched their legs here at Epsom for a gallop. All bar one of the Irish winners from the past 20 years have won at Leopardstown before coming here Orchestra and Kingfisher are the only two Irish runners this year that haven't had a Leopardstown win.Kingston Hill is s runner who, if there's any soft around tomorrow is very much a contender. He has won his 1 mile races going away so the required stamina is evident but he was disappointing in the 2000 Guineas on good to firm. He had a run round Epsom and apparently handled the course. His odds are currently around 17/2 but expect this to shorten if the rain comes.
Down to business then! As I mentioned at the top, I am looking for a value each way, place only or betting w/o the favourite pick since Australia (with his Derby winning sire and Oaks winning dam) is the class act this year and priced accordingly. As long as the ground stays decent then he will go off a short favourite although I'd have liked to have seen him run (and win!) a 10f race before today. If he wins then it'll be in the style of Camelot where he just holds on by the skin of his teeth so the value with Australia is likely to be found backing in running when I'm sure he'll hit much higher than his SP.
Final Verdict :
Geoffrey Chaucer for the sensible logical alternative!
Kingston Hill if the chance-enhancing rain arrives
True Story for the fairytale ending
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