Friday’s Selections – 02 September

The only possible way my selections could be worse for Friday is if I choose seven and not six!

Not quite the worst day in history as that would be silly but it shall henceforth be known as Grim Thursday (a nod to Black Thursday and/or Black Tuesday for the stock market) and can be referred to when a tipster, punter or bookie needs to conjure up an example of the worst of horseracing investment selections.  For example “Shoot I’m so glad that last selection won – I thought I was going to have a Grim Thursday!” 

Experience has taught me that some rest to "recover, regroup and recoup" is in order (see I told you on yesterday’s blog update that I’d be using that phrase!) ..... and also known as an early night.

On the positive side, Celebrity Juice started a new series last night and we can all use the word dingbat and sound cool in the upcoming weeks......

I will leave this blog overnight in the knowledge that 10 of the last 16 winners races run over 10f at Brighton (14:50) have been drawn high (62.5%) and twice as many winners from a high draw have raced from the front  as have been held up.  A racing riddle which would suggest Golden Waters fits the profile! 1^st

Systems selections today are:

Haydock

13:40   Gottcher (17) UP

15:40   Fabreze (9.4) 1^st

......horses really shouldn’t be named after fabric odour eliminators!! 

a much better show today with a profit of +7.4
There's nothing else that ticks all the boxes today so I'll go away and study and most probably post a review or two later.

Perusing through the cards for today and it struck me that Dandy Nicholls has had 40 runners out over the past fortnight without a winner.  He really has not had the best of seasons and although it has been suggested before (and denied strenuously), you can’t help but wonder if there hasn’t been a virus or some lurgy doing the rounds at Tall Trees.

I've had a quick glance at the 21:20 (lucky last?) at Kempton tonight.  It's an 11f race where conversely (along with 12f) the mid and high draw is the advantage.  One runner that has taken my interest is Scamperdale who is a C&D winner but more frequently seen at Wolverhampton. 

His last run on AW was at Lingfield and can be forgiven from the poor outside draw as can his last run here (ditto with the killer draw - stall numbering reversed since then if you're looking).  A combination of a right hand track (he's won a Leicester and Kempton twice apiece), the AW (11 of his 14 wins on this surface) and Jack Mitchell who has ridden him twice before and won on both occasions should hopefully produce a winning (and if not winning then placing) formula!

UP Got going a bit late in a hot race.  

Haydock 15:10 Betfred Bolton Lads & Girls Club Handicap (Div 1) 6f Class 4

13 runners but only a handful (I would say) with serious chances. Jobe and Rio Cobolo (drawn 5 & 9) should set a decent pace on the stands side of the draw whereas front-running Invincible Force will be up front on his own the other side – the first couple of races over 5f will reveal if this is the side to be today for the straight.  If it is, then Invincible Force (who has won races from 5f to a mile, on soft and on good to firm) could be extremely generously handicapped for this with Lee Topliss (who is having a purple patch) taking off another 3lb.

If the low draw looks the best  today then I’d be looking for a closer. 

Iron Range won his (class 5) maiden in impressive style but this is a different class and in a field of 12, his lack of experience could be an issue however. 

La Zamora (readers of this blog will remember this name and the fact that it’s a pretty place in Spain!) is back down to his last winning mark.  Graham Gibbons (tomorrow’s rider of Hoof It) is up again and he tends to be ridden just behind the leaders and take it up a furlong or so from home.  He’s been very lightly raced this year and on his last visit, his hood was taken off so late that any chance was gone yet he still finished a creditable fourth just a length behind the winner though and is carrying 6lb less today. 

Klynch has until only recently been contesting Class 2 and 3 races.  He was 3^rd LTO and carrying 3lb lower is a live chance.  Ruth Carr’s stable has been in the doldrums until yesterday so perhaps is now on the upturn.

Cornus it the last on my shortlist.  He hasn’t won since last July (2010) but is inching closer with each run.  The trouble with all these places is that the handicapper is keeping him just where he is with a mark of 74 or 75.  This will be his 9^th run since the 25 June and if I was Alan McCabe, I’d be tempted to give his a break then run him at a mile as he does seem to need longer these days (another armchair advisor!!).  The old boy (the horse not Alan McCabe) could surprise us though!

Final selection time then!  If the earlier races indicate a high draw advantage then:

Invincible Force 12/1 UP  

If not then:

La Zamora 5/1 UP

I realise this is Gertcha and not Gottcher but it's close enough for a Friday...

Cockney is a place in London where criminals lives - Alan Partridge

          118                      105                   104               

      56                         49                    21

Friday’s Selections, York Picks & Results (19 August)

Yesterday they held one of those bookies’ testimonial evenings –  a variety show with  favourites trailing in last having unseated their riders on the way to post, or sitting motionless in the stalls (the horses not jockeys) or managing to get stuck behind a wall of runners (this can take supreme effort and skill in fields of just 6 so you can never accuse anyone of not trying!). Cynical? Me?  Never.......................!!  

Friday’s Five System Selections are:

Sandown

14:40     Pose  UP

York

15:40     Requinto UP

16:50     Shesastar 1^st

16:50     La Zamora UP

Yes, two in the same race and they’re both David Barron runners (this is total coincidence & not system related!) – Shesastar has the most negligible of edges

Salisbury

20:05     Man Of God UP

Good day for the system - only one winner but it turned a profit of +5


You’ll notice that 2yo Requinto is up there as the system pick for the Nunthorpe.  With the withdrawal of Sole Power and Bapak Chinta this leaves Hoof It (currently my daughter’s favourite horse??) the strong favourite.  However, the last time the favourite won in the Nunthorpe was 2003.   More recently than that a 2yo won in 2007 (Kingsgate Native) and an Irish trainer won last year with Sole Power who was the 100/1 shock winner (which seems like yesterday) belonging to a certain Paddy’s mum, Mrs Power. 

Zamora in Spain

Surprising how many horses are named after places...when there's a horse running named Kim Kardashian, Megan Fox or Rihanna - things will be different I promise!

York

14:00 RACING UK ON SKY BET MOBILE STAKES (HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100)

Looking past at the past 9 runnings, there has been a disproportionate number of winners from the middle draw – draw 11 being especially prominent.  Trooping The Colour has the honour this year!

I like Lady Chapparal for this – she’ll love the ground and will be up to the front, finishing strongly.  It’s a jump up in class but (forget the 14f York run) she’s been progressing nicely since she joined George Moore in April.  Talking of the trainer, he’s had 3 wins from 7 wins this past fortnight so all good!

Lady Chapparal  10/1 UP (but Trooping The Colour with that lucky draw was placed at 20/1)

14:30  GIMCRACK STAKES (GROUP 2) (COLTS & GELDINGS) (CLASS 1) (2yo)

I admit I haven’t spent much time looking at this so not many £££s going down here!  Justineo looks a decent sort  - Haggas has an excellent 25% strike rate with 2yo here and as a Montjeu colt he should have no problems with softer going.  Has a decent draw so as good a chance as any! (and I had a dream about a ‘green horse’ last night!!!) #joking

Justineo   6/1 UP

15:05 SKY BET MOBILE STRENSALL STAKES (GROUP 3) (CLASS 1) 1m208y (3yo+) 

I'm very tempted to back Green Destiny here - I dreamt about a green horse last night but I'm not some silly superstitious female so this is no reason at all!  I don't like his draw and to be honest Fallon hasn't been having the best of weeks so far.  GD does have the stamina for the 9f and form on the going but it's debateable whether he has the speed!!  I'll take the safe (?) option and back Dux Scholar who has progressed well, is drawn well and should take this on only his 3rd run of the season. 

Dux Scolar    3/1 UP  (with a saver on Green Destiny  1^st in case I'm psychic!) A new career beckons –move over Mystic Meg& I’ll have all of your horseys too!

15:40 COOLMORE NUNTHORPE STAKES (GROUP 1) (CLASS 1) (2yo+) 5f 

I'm sticking with the system selection Requinto for this.  Hoof It is a great horse but this may be a step too far (and too soon) in my opinion!  David Wachman is not going to bring over just 1 horse for the Ebor festival if he doesn't think that it has an excellent chance of winning.  It's not unheard of for a 2yo to win this (see Kingsgate Native 2007) or an Irish raider to do the same  (last year anyone?).  Requinto receives heaps of weight for his age allowance and although a big step up in class against the big boys, I think he'll prevail!

Requinto     6/1 UP

16:15 MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 2) (2yo) 7f 

I'm not a fan of maidens (s anyone?)  You can look at trainer records, sales prices, entries, gallop reports, jockey bookings and breeding until you’re exhausted but the this means nothing until they’re raced .. and even then there may be an unraced wild card spoil the party.  A few of the runners here have Derby entries and the two I like most are Thomas Chippendale and Athens – both high profile owners, Derby entrants and racing debutants.   Apparently there’s a buzz on course for Thomas Chippendale so if pushed, I’ll go with this one!

Thomas Chippendale  5/1 UP

16:50 E B F PAUL MALONE HALF CENTURY STAKES (FILLIES´ HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100) 7f

I have two system selections in this that I put up last night, La Zamora and Shesastar (see above) so I’m on these.  Satisfyingly they’ve both shortened nicely over the morning.  I should point out that when Navajo Chief won at 25/1 yesterday, my other half was delighted as he (not a betting or form man) likes to pick horses with Cowboy & Indian names!   So if Sioux Rising wins this race, I may have to adopt a different approach to picking winners......

La Zamora   7/1 UP

Shesastar   9/1 1^st