The
only possible way my selections could be worse for Friday is if I choose seven
and not six!
Not quite the worst day
in history as that would be silly but it shall henceforth be known as Grim
Thursday (a nod to Black Thursday and/or
Black Tuesday for the stock market) and can be referred to when a tipster, punter or bookie needs to conjure up an example of the worst of horseracing investment
selections. For example “Shoot I’m so
glad that last selection won – I thought I was going to have a Grim Thursday!”
Experience has taught me that some rest to "recover, regroup and recoup" is in order (see I told you on yesterday’s blog update that I’d be using that phrase!) ..... and also known as an early night.
On
the positive side, Celebrity
Juice started a new series last night and we can all use the word dingbat and sound cool in the
upcoming weeks......
I
will leave this blog overnight in the knowledge that 10 of the last 16 winners
races run over 10f at Brighton (14:50) have been drawn high (62.5%) and twice
as many winners from a high draw have raced from the front as have been held
up. A racing riddle which would suggest Golden Waters fits the profile! 1st
a much better show today with a profit of +7.4
There's nothing else that ticks all the boxes today so I'll go away and study and most probably post a review or two later.
Systems selections today are:
Haydock
13:40 Gottcher (17) UP
15:40 Fabreze (9.4) 1st
......horses really shouldn’t be named
after fabric odour eliminators!!
a much better show today with a profit of +7.4
There's nothing else that ticks all the boxes today so I'll go away and study and most probably post a review or two later.
Perusing through the cards for today and it struck me that Dandy Nicholls has had 40 runners out over the past fortnight without a winner. He really has not had the best of seasons and although it has been suggested before (and denied strenuously), you can’t help but wonder if there hasn’t been a virus or some lurgy doing the rounds at Tall Trees.
I've had a quick glance at the 21:20 (lucky last?) at Kempton tonight. It's an 11f race where conversely (along with 12f) the mid and high draw is the advantage. One runner that has taken my interest is Scamperdale who is a C&D winner but more frequently seen at Wolverhampton.
His last run on AW was at Lingfield and can be forgiven from the poor outside draw as can his last run here (ditto with the killer draw - stall numbering reversed since then if you're looking). A combination of a right hand track (he's won a Leicester and Kempton twice apiece), the AW (11 of his 14 wins on this surface) and Jack Mitchell who has ridden him twice before and won on both occasions should hopefully produce a winning (and if not winning then placing) formula!
UP Got going a bit late in a hot race.
Haydock
15:10 Betfred Bolton Lads & Girls Club Handicap (Div 1)
6f Class 4
13
runners but only a handful (I would say) with serious chances. Jobe and Rio
Cobolo (drawn 5 & 9) should set a decent pace on the stands side of the
draw whereas front-running Invincible Force will be up front on his own the
other side – the first couple of races over 5f will reveal if this is the side
to be today for the straight. If it is,
then Invincible Force (who has won races from 5f to a mile, on soft and on good
to firm) could be extremely generously handicapped for this with Lee Topliss
(who is having a purple patch) taking off another 3lb.
If
the low draw looks the best today then I’d
be looking for a closer.
Iron
Range won his (class 5) maiden in
impressive style but this is a different class and in a field of 12, his lack
of experience could be an issue however.
La Zamora (readers of this blog will remember this name and the fact that it’s a
pretty place in Spain!) is back down to his last winning mark. Graham Gibbons (tomorrow’s rider of Hoof It)
is up again and he tends to be ridden just behind the leaders and take it up a
furlong or so from home. He’s been very
lightly raced this year and on his last visit, his hood was taken off so late
that any chance was gone yet he still finished a creditable fourth just a
length behind the winner though and is carrying 6lb less today.
Klynch
has until only recently been contesting Class 2 and 3 races. He was 3rd LTO and carrying 3lb
lower is a live chance. Ruth Carr’s
stable has been in the doldrums until yesterday so perhaps is now on the
upturn.
Cornus
it the last on my shortlist. He hasn’t
won since last July (2010) but is inching closer with each run. The trouble with all these places is that the
handicapper is keeping him just where he is with a mark of 74 or 75. This will be his 9th run since the
25 June and if I was Alan McCabe, I’d be tempted to give his a break then run
him at a mile as he does seem to need longer these days (another armchair
advisor!!). The old boy (the horse not
Alan McCabe) could surprise us though!
Final
selection time then! If the earlier
races indicate a high draw advantage then:
Invincible Force 12/1 UP
If not then:
La Zamora 5/1 UP
I realise this is Gertcha and not Gottcher but it's close enough for a Friday...
Cockney is a place in London where criminals lives - Alan Partridge
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