Cheltenham Festival - Gold Cup Day

The likelihood of rain has and will put paid to many chances today with some believing that the Gold Cup may go off on soft ground.

if this happens then good news for Silviniaco Conti but not so good for Bobs Worth.

AP has been confirmed to ride Sir Des Champs after Sunnyhillboy was declared a non-runner after a self-cert bad scope.  Either a happy coincidence for the champion jockey or JP McManus has been a star in taking out a horse that (realistically) had no hope of winning to leave the way clear for AP to take the ride without anyone losing face.  Perfect politics!

I think I will have to finally admit that Peddlers Cross is never going to be the force of old.  Excuses can and have (mostly by me!) been made but my daughters theory is probably the right one.  "He ran a couple of bad races then got to play in a field all summer so he thinks that if he runs another bad race, he gets to play again!"  We shall bestow that intelligence on his head and go with that theory then.

Back to today and I have observed that first time headgear has been used to great effect in a few of the large handicaps this Festival so far.  I have been scouring the form cards for this new feature when used by the stables that like to land these races!  The bookies have had it far too cushy so far so we meed to do something about it today so more time selecting and less time typing!

13:30

JCB Triumph Hurdle

2m1f  Class 1 Grade 1

Last Year’s winner:          Countrywide Flame  (33/1)

Win Prediction:      Rolling Star            (10/3)  UP (6th)

Each Way Value:    Vasco Du Ronceray  (28/1)  UP (5th)

14:05

County Hurdle

2m1f  Class 1 Grade 3

Last Year’s winner:          Alderwood  (20/1)

Win Prediction:      Ifandbutwhynot     (10/1)  UP (9th)

Each Way Value:     Edgardo Sol           (33/1) UP (6th)

14:40

Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle (aka The Potato Race!)

3m  Class 1  Grade 1

Last Year’s winner:          Brindisi Breeze  (7/1)

Win Prediction:      At Fisher’s Cross    (7/4) 1st

Each Way Value:     Our Vinnie             (9/1)  F If the going changes to soft otherwise

                             Utopie Des Bordes  (10/1)  UP (5th)

15:20

Gold Cup

3m2f110y  Class 1 Grade 1

Last Year’s winner:          Synchronised  (8/1)

The more rain that falls, the bigger I can see Bobs Worth’s price becoming!  The stats are also against a horse winning this race without at least 2 runs this season.  I remain unconvinced that McCoy is a good thing aboard Sir Des Champs.  Great as he is, he doesn’t know the horse, has a relatively poor record around Cheltenham and tends not to be the best pilot if a horse needs cajoling at all .  
I will never forget the look on both Ruby and Paul Nicholls faces when he dismounted in the parade ring after winning on Silviniaco Conti at Haydock.  Kids on Christmas morning who’ve discovered Santa has brought then everything they wished for!  I think this horse could be very special.

At a price Cape Tribulation could get amongst the places – that is if his jumping holds together!

Win Prediction:      Silviniaco Conti      (5/1) F

Each Way Value:    Cape Tribulation    (14/1) UP (5th)

I thought Silviniaco Conti is a very similar horse to Kauto Star - the falling  it could have  been left out of the checklist though.

16:00

Foxhunter Chase

3m2f110y  Class 2

Last Year’s winner:          Salsify  (7/1)

The trends dictate that the favourite wins this every 3 years on average which is good news for Salsify since the last time a favourite won was in 2010.  The only worry would be the rain as he prefers better ground but he has won on soft and looks to be ahead of any other here except Backstage who is even more dependant on decent going.  If Hoopy could run the race of his life, then he has the ability to figure with a decent jockey booked.

Win Prediction:      Salsify                   (3/1)  1st

Each Way Value:     Hoopy          (40/1) PU

16:40

Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Hurdle

2m4f110y  C2

Last Year’s winner:          Attaglance  (20/1)

Win Prediction:      Toner D’Oudairies (10/1)  UP

Each Way Value:     Act Of Kalanisi       (40/1)  UP

17:15

Grand Annual Chase

2m110y  Class 1 Grade 3

Last Year’s winner:          Bellvano  (20/1)

Kid Cassidy was the big gamble in this race last year when the other McManus horse, Bellvano won at 33/1.  He was never the most fluent jumper and looks to be the sort who would respond better to coaxing and cajoling rather than APs more forceful approach.  Kumbeshwar has done this before (last year he was 3rd at age only 5) and now another older and wiser, he may be able to improve on this for the stable that had the 1-2 in the Coral on Wednesday.

Win Prediction:      Kid Cassidy            (9/1) 2nd

Each Way Value:     Kumbeshwar                   (28/1)  F

Good Luck !

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