Only 1 system selection today and that is:
Carlisle 14:40 Esprit De Midas (2.64) 1st
Profit of +1.64
Not a system selection today but one that has been in the past and was narrowly denied a place is Creme Anglaise running at Notts in the 15:30 Hayley Turner back up and 4/1 2nd
Reviews (& Convoluted but Occasionally Rational Reasoning for My Picks)
14:00 Symphony Group Stakes Class 2 0-105 3yo+
This race has only run twice before but on both occasions the winner had the very highest draw! It’s not a big enough stat to mean much but it’s certainly made me have a closer look at the high numbers (with a field of 20 you have to start somewhere). A lot of the runners can be discounted pretty quickly as 5f is not their trip and many others are too high in the weights or have never come close in a large field before.
Ritual was found to have an infection after his poor Ascot run and Dettori has won 2 of his 8 rides for Noseda this year. He can cope with good to soft but would look as though 6f is more his game (the testing Sandown course an exception for his 5f win there).
Swiss France is a decent horse but hasn’t show his best at York or in larger fields and Face The Problem hasn’t won for over a year with his only attempt on ground with cut in resulting second last.
Silaah’s win earlier this year at Southwell might suggest that he’ll handle the going but the trainers not too sure. He’s down to a winnable mark now but not the most reliable of horses. He has different running styles and could keep out of trouble if Fallon keeps him prominent. At a big price, he could be worth an e/w shot. I do have a soft spot for Ginger Ted but this (as we all know) is not going to help it win. J P Guillambert is up (he won with him at Ayr earlier this year) and he is on a decent mark but is looking very exposed – this will be his 7th race since the start of June. His best trip is a mystery but he has won at 5f though and has possibilities - if I’m honest I’d rather he had another jockey on board!
Ancient Cross is the one I'm most excited about. Graham Gibbons has brought him home in front on two occasions this year and know him well. He’ll need some luck in running but is a C&D winner who will be fine with the ground, weight and has won a better races than this one earlier in the year.
Since most bookied are paying out on the first 4 places then I'll be having 3 each way bets here!
Ancient Cross 9/1 UP (6th)
Silaah 20/1 UP (7th)
Ginger Ted UP (13th )
Nottingham 16:35 Class 5 0-70 Handicap 3yo
Ninfea has been racing over 10f lately (too far!) and is reunited with James Doyle who rode her when headed into 2nd the last visit here at this distance. The stable (Kirk) is in better form this time and she may be able to go one better today.
Scoglio looks interesting but has yet to be tried on this firmer ground. Blue Maisey is fav but I think her higher mark may be more telling on this track and a lb too far - even under Buick.
Refusal has only been raced at further (which is mystery to me given her pedigree) and may have snuck under the radar. She’s perfectly drawn to get to the front and it’ll be interesting what Sophie Doyle does with her.
On balance, I’ll throw caution to the wind and side with the Doyle family and a couple of each way long shots: Ninfea to go one better than her last visit here and Refusal – in case this trip is the key to her.
Ninfea 12/1 (each way) UP
Refusal 25/1( each way) UP
York 14:30 Acomb Stakes 2yo Class 1 Group 3
Zumbi in this for me (9/1) for no other reasons than Stoute & Fallon 2yo record here, Fallon's agent getting quite excited about this horse when the booking came in and a nice juicy high draw! 3rd
York 15:05 Voltigeur
Hunter's Light - I'm not expecting a win but a place at decent odds (14/1) should be on the cards. Frankie picks this one! UP
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