Sandiuk - Horseracing Chit Chat, Musings, Gossip & Reviews: Friday's Breeders Cup Day One Selections & Updates

Now I like it best when the Breeder's Cup meeting is at Santa Anita! I have more stats compiled for this track, there are lots of celebs to spot in the crowd and it's prettier to watch....... but I have dusted off last year's spreadsheet and with commendable foresight, I even made a few notes pertinent to each race!

So welcome to the wonderful world of sloppy, muddy, exotics, 1f racing, horseback riding and horseback interviews with long sticks!
All US tracks are left handed (nice and easy to remember)

Dirty
Previous dirt form is a big plus which is why Europeans horseys dont' fare so well (not one winner last year) but on the turf, it's a different matter! The dirt track at Churchill Downs is fairly galloping and currently sloppy. There is no truth in the rumour that the US have so many dirt tracks because they can't get the ground staff....

Grassy
The turf track however is fairly sharp and currently yielding. This is where the euros come into their own.

20.10 Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint
This is a brand new race this year so no previous pointers. In general a low draw is an advantage a sprint distances here on the dirt track so I've give stalls 1-4 a slight plus. The going on the dirt track is sloppy and the only runner here with form on the is Seeker who has won over 6f and is drawn low. Secret Circle (who won!) has a so-so draw, a world famous trainer but no dirt form (his wins were on polytrack and pro-ride) - he'll go off favourites but I have serious doubts. Vexor has won a decent race LTO over muddy dirt and has the running style and turn of foot needed on a dirt course but however the worst draw.

1. Seeker UP

2. Vexor UP

20.50 Juvenile Fillies Turf

A mile race with a high draw advantage (despite common misconception!) which is good news for three at the head of the market, Somali Lemonade, Elusive Kate and Pure Gossip. Previous winners have all won before on turf. Up doesn't come into either category so is either a very dark horse or has come over to keep his friend company!! It has to be Elusive Kate for me in this. William Buick has an exemplary record on the world stage (similar to Jamie Spencer - they seem to shine in the big international races) and Elusive Kate's 3 length win at Longchamp in the Marcel Boussac would have been a greater distance had she not hung left.

Somali Lemonade would be my next best unless it rains when Pure Gossip would shine.

1. Elusive Kate UP

2. Somali Lemonade UP

21:30 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint

This looks to be all about Switch who came 2^nd in this last year and Turbulent Descent who has never been out of the first two in her races. John Sadler has been in better form recently than Mike Puype so I’ll lean toward Switch. I’ve been searching for some value though (after all there are 3 places) and Her Smile from the Toddster stable and owned by celeb chef Bobby Flay may provide just this. Her last run can be ignored as she had nowhere to go a couple of furlongs out. She looks to want a stiff 7f and wading through mud she should get that here.

Switch 2^nd
Her Smile 3^rd

22:10 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (Dirt)

More mud and again I’m looking for a proven dirt runner – preferably from the US or at least that continent. Most of these runners sound as though they should all be living in an antebellum house in the deep South waiting for Clark Gable to come home from ‘tha waah’.. Grace Hall, My Miss Aurelia and Weemissfrankie are all unbeaten but it’s My Miss Aurelia who won most convincingly LTO and has the trainer’s course form to back up her claims here. Next best for me will be Grace Hall.

1. My Miss Aurelia 1^st

2. Grace Hall 2^nd

22:50 Emirates Airline Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf

Shared Account won this last year at 33/1. The only clues were that she had won on a LH sharp track and the going with a creditable second to a top class horse Proviso a couple of runs before this - nothing else, no decent draw zilch! The first 3 home last year were drawn in the middle stalls. So here's a challenge....

I do like Stacelita but she seems more of a summer horse and Misty For Me is drawn in the car park unfortunately. Frankie is over for the ride on Nahrain who has won on every four of her starts to date - giving Roger Varian his first group 1 win at Longchamp. Frankie is the master of the pounce and as long as the rain doesn't come down too heavy I fancy her to win this. If the rain does arrive I'll switch allegiance to Announce who Nahrain narrowly beat LTO but who has proven form on softer ground.

Nahrain 2^nd
Announce WD (under vet's orders - or in other words "how dare you go to post without a pony"

23:30 Ladies Classic Emirates Airline Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf

Plum Pretty had the measure of It’s Tricky (7 ½ lengths) LTO off equal weights and there’s no reason to think this time will be any different. Royal Delta though was second LTO to Havre De Grace who is running in the big one, the Breeders’ Cup Classic tomorrow night – and has a live chance in it! So I would say that these two have the first couple of places wrapped up between them. Assuming she likes her dirt with extra water, Plum Pretty should manage to get here head in front here.