Saturday's Breeders' Cup Day Two Selections & Updates - 05 November

Let's have fireworks tonight please! (groan!) - Non UK peeps need to refer to this - which explains why annually we commemorate a person who tried to blow up our own parliament!  


Anyhow just the 2 winners yesterday - the best is yet to come.  It really will be a great days racing at Churchill Downs tomorrow and I'm really looking forward to it.

Here are my five racing reviews for a selections of the Breeders' Cup races tomorrow and I'll fill in the missing races in the morning ............

this is a subtle subliminal hint (advertisers should try it - it might catch on!)

18:02 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf

A mile on a left handed sharpish track should see the high draw with the advantage again.  Pluck won from stall 12 (of 12) last year.  Tequila Factor has a great name and best draw but he would need all the others to stop off for a burger on the way home to win this!  It is extremely hard for me to be objective about Caspar Netscher as I love this horse. Unfortunately the draw and extra 2f isn’t inspiring much confidence in me – merely hope! Aiden O’Brien’s record at the Breeder’s Cup to dates hasn’t been in keeping with his record at any other corner of the planet and Wrote has a low draw so Ryan will have to ride clever to buck the trend in this race.  Hopefully the trend will be well and truly bucked later with So You Think! 

In this race thought, I’m going to opt for a couple of US runners despite the Euros better record.  The US based Magnier, Tabor & Smith runner Finale has proven stamina and good draw then a big priced danger could be Daddy Nose Best– both trainer and jockey have excellent course records and I have a suspicion that he may run better with a bit of juice in the ground. 

1. Finale UP (7th)
2. Daddy Nose Best UP (6th)

18:37 Breeders’ Cup Sprint (Dirt)

Last year’s winner Big Drama (trained by David Fawkes and owned by Harold Queen no less!) has been seen out twice since then and won on both occasions.  A low draw is preferable in the dirt sprints so Big Drama’s stall 8 isn’t the perfect start that he had last year (stall 1) though.  Euroears has that privilege and coming from Bob Baffert’s stable deserves close consideration.  You can forget his last run when he was hampered at the start and never recovered and as long as doesn’t get into a duel for the lead with one of two other front runners in the field, can perform well.  Aikenite can benefit it the front runners take each other on and pounce later.  He’s a C&D winner, drawn in stall 3 and looks a overpriced at 14/1

1. Euroears UP
2. Aikenite UP (4th)

19:21 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint

You may be forgiven for the double take on seeing Hoofit’s name on the card but this is the all-one-word edition of Hoofit.  Unusually for a turf race, there are no Europeans in this race.  I’ve narrowed it down to the aforementioned Hoofit, Regally Ready, Havelock and Caracortado – the rest just haven’t shown enough to be serious contenders in my book!

This trip is probably too sharp for Hoofit who has been contesting 6f, 7f and even mile races this year and also for Caracortado who has been seen in mile and 9f races.  Regally Ready has won a grade 1 LTO and a grade 2 race here over C&D in May and Steve Asmussen has a good record here with his runners.  Havelock could be next best.

1. Regally Ready 1st
2. Havelock UP

20:45 Breeders’ Cup Turf
Again it’s the high draw with the advantage!  Dangerous Midge won from stall 7 of 7 last year and this year Midday has the plumb spot.  The fact that she’s taking on the boys rather than running in the Fillies & Mares Turf might worry you if she was trained by anyone other then Sir Henry.  Sea Moon is very tempting yet has never won a group 1 but could come very close.  Sarafina is tackling a sharper track that before but that is the only negative I can find for her.  Compare this with my 2 negatives for St Nicholas Abbey – the first is that Ryan Moore isn’t up but Joseph O’Brien is instead.  Don’t get me wrong, I think he’s a excellent claimer and has ridden group class winner(s) but this is a different league and (more importantly) he’s ridden SNA twice and his best result was 3^rd….the other neg is the number 1 stall.  It has to be Sarafina with Sea Moon as my back up/forecast pick. 

1. Sarafina UP (4th)
2. Sea Moon 2nd

and very well done to Joseph O'Brien (showed me didn't it!) lol

Yes.....Deja Vu.....I've picked Sea Moon before...same video!

21:25 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

A low draw is usually the advantage on dirt here over a mile but the last three winners in the dirt mile (not the juvenile dirt mile) have been drawn 11, 10 and 10 so Union Rags draw doesn’t deter me whatsoever on that basis.  Take Charge Indy is a big price and would be more closely considered if he’d got any dirt form – he may perform but I’d prefer to put money on a horse that has a proven record on this idiosyncratic surface.  Dullahan in stall 2 is trained by Dale Romans who has a very decent record here.  He has been placed 3^rd here in the past and could run into a place.  However, Union Rags with his 3 runs/3 wins combined with his good draw may well be my best bet of the meeting. 

1. Union Rags 2nd 
2. Dullahan UP (4th)

 22:07 TVG Breeders’ Cup Mile

It's all about Goldikova and her chase for a fourth successive BC Mile win!  She’s one of three 6yo contesting this – the other two are old adversary Gio Ponti and Court Visoin  It’s tempting to try to find reasons that Goldi won’t prevail once more (to justify my partisan heart!) but it’s damn difficult and the best I can come up with is that there are younger legs then hers on the way up…..not really any sort of reason at all.  Her defeat LTO was over a too-short 7f so this bothers me not a jot and Freddy Head believes that she is as good as last year when she won by almost 2 lengths from Gio Ponti so here’s hoping that she read the script that Zenyatta failed to read last year and bows out in style. 

Strong Suit is drawn wide in stall 11 and the press and connections have been wailing about this but Goldikova won from stall 10 last year and I really do not believe is to be the death knell that it’s widely perceived to be – whether this is because the jockey thinks more about how they’ll ride their race from this ‘poor’ draw I don’t know.  I also think the handicapper has been quite kind to Strong Suit if the truth be told! 

A less obvious threat may be C&D winner Turallure who, like Strong Suit (and Goldikova last year) has a wide draw but also has a ultra-experienced course jockey in Julien Leparoux.  And don’t be dismissing Sidney’s Candy trained by the Toddster – he prefers his grass like rock but could still spring a surprise.

But it comes back round again to Goldikova. 

1. Goldikova 3rd
2. Turallure 2nd ...now that really hurt (a photo finish 2nd)

23:00 Breeders’ Cup Classic

Chantal Sutherland is a Canadian jockey/model who will be riding Bob Baffert’s runner Game On Dude – fellas, this is Chantal:

Now I have your attention!  I don’t think she’s going to win but wouldn’t it be great for racing if she did?

It appears that this may have been the target for So You Think all along but I’m not convinced a horse (whatever their breeding) can win FTO in the top dirt race in the world so I have moved my attention to Uncle Mo, Havre De Grace, To Honor And Serve and Flat Out – I think one of these four will take this but some deduction is now required! 

Flat Out won her last outing nicely over the same distance and on the same muddy dirt at Belmont Park (with the same weight) but he does have a low draw away from the pace which I think is enough to sink his chances.  This leaves Uncle Mo, Havre De Grace and To Honor And Serve. 

Honor And Serve has done all of his running on dirt and in some decent enough races but it’s all been fast dirt and it would appear that previously if the conditions have been anything other than this then he’s been scratched (for a reason).

Uncle Mo on the other hand has won in these conditions but never over quite this far – the way he saw out his last mile race would suggest the step up won’t be a problem but it’s not guaranteed and his attempt at 9f in April at Group 1 level found him out but he could have now improved.

Havre De Grace has won in this muddiness and been narrowly beaten into 2^nd over 10f so stamina and conditions are both fine.  She’s shown she can mix it in quality company when placed 3^rd here last year in the Ladies Classic from a high draw as today.  However this year she doesn’t get any age allowance and although a filly is actually giving away a lb to Uncle Mo as he’s a 3yo (like Frankel is a 3yo!!) we know she can hold her own in male company from her penultimate run in a Group 1 at Saratoga though (she beat Flat Out on that occasion) so although I’d have liked to have seen her a couple of lbs lower, I’m siding with Havre De Grace and Uncle Mo as chief danger merchant. 

1. Havre De Grace UP (4th)
2. Uncle Mo UP

  

……and will there be anyone watching (or caring) who wins the Chilukki Stakes after the Classic at 11:40?