Occasional and intermittant blog with musings, chit chat, reviews for the big meetings and races, gossip, videos, pics and music - all horse racing related
That'll be George Vancouver, Saint Nicholas Abbey, Aiden O'Brien and Breeders Cup then! A slight difference to the format tonight with a first choice and a next best....to do with what you will (Dutch, each-way, forecast, print off and use instead of Andrex .....the list is endless!)
No fancy write ups (today has been spent on form study and sharing 'my' road with lunatic drivers whilst teaching them some inventive and descriptive forms of insult)
I have dusted off my Breeders' Cup spreadsheets from 2009 (Santa Anita) and found some useful (still I hope!) statistics which helped me find one or two winners way back then... The biggest change this year is the absence of Lasix for the young'uns. Lasix is used to prevent racehorses from bleeding (shows from the nose but in actuality the bleeding comes from the lungs) but it also has the added side effect of being an effective diuretic. The European 2yo horses aren't having to adapt to running without it like their North American counterparts which means that they should have a slight edge - although the travelling and acclimatisation may cancel some of that benefit out! For this reason, I am going with Ceiling Kitty over Merit Man in the 20:06 Juvenile Sprint. Both these runners have a nice advantageous low draw but Ceiling Kitty has been spotted working very nicely indeed and is the only runner in the line up not to have used Lasix before. She has never run on dirt before which is obviously a big negative (and her price reflects this) but she has breeding with some high class US Storm Cat blood in the nix which would suggest this isn't a hopeless cause so at an each way price, I'll take a chance she's a dirty girl.
Ceiling Kitty ?
Man Of Iron - 2009 Santa Anita Marathon Winner
I love it that 14 furlongs is a marathon in the US! Although it would be a nice sight to watch Fame And Glory
cross the winning line first in the Marathon at 20:46, I have looked for a runner with
proven dirt form at this distance.Although he’s never run over this distance, Jaycito (the Bob Baffert trained runner) has the pedigree to support this
attempt.
A low draw (1-6) in the Juvenile Fillies Turf (21:28) is a definite advantage so it’s no
surprise that this is where the top four in the betting are drawn. Sky Lantern, Spring Venture, Watsdachances and Flotilla are the four in question. Again the lack of Lasix may have a significant impact on the US trained runners which leaves me pondering between Sky Lantern (who has never raced on firm) and Flotilla who has only ever raced on soft, very soft or heavy …. A fairly easy decision then especially since favourites have a great record in this race - I’ll be shouting home Hughsie on Sky Lantern.
The Juvenile Fillies at 22:08 is possibly the easiest race
tonight in which to part with my hard earned. Executiveprivilege
ticks all stats boxes and has the form to take this without too much problem (brave words!). The stats that he ticks are (1) Californian
trained and Kentucky bred (2) Has won on other surfaces other than dirt
& importantly on synthetic surface (3) Never finished out
of the first two (4) is favourite! He’s
won every race ever contested and beat two of this field in the past.
Ridsiyana has
tempted me in the Filly & Mare Turf at 22:48 but she has plenty of classy
opposition this evening. The 3yo
allowance is most definitely a help over this distance but the going is an
unknown (apparently the turf is as firm as Mike Tysons biceps). She comes into
this race is decent form with a Group 1 victory under her belt girth but
with a mysterious ‘blip’ on her penultimate run - the more forgiving could
say that the race wasn’t run to suit. She won’t be allowed to use Lasix here either. I like the price look of Lady Of Shamrock who come into the race
in equally decent form and with two Group 1’s under her girth – the Del Mar and
the American Oaks. LoS has proved
herself on firm going and she has the assistance of regular partner Mike Smith
who knows his way around here well enough. It’ll
be two bets for me in this race – a win bet on Ridsiyana and an each way on
Lady Of Shamrock.
Finally this evening for those still awake at 23:30, it’s
back to the dirt track for the Ladies’ Cup Classic. The low draw is favoured (1-3) in my book, which
would have Grace Hall, My Miss Aurelia and Class Included in the mix. Class Included just shouldn't be good enough
so a line straight through her! My Miss
Aurelia is a dirt specialist who has yet to see the backside of any horse at the winning line and is trained by Steven Asmussen who knows how to win the big
races! MMA has three group 1 notches on her
bedpost whereas Grace Hall seems to have spent her career in her shadow and not being quite good enough when it comes to the top races. My Miss Aurelia to win and a small each way
on Grace Hall just in case she pulls out the run of her life.
Now to settle down with the beer lined up, the pizza ordered and cheer home a winner or two (think positive!!)
Let's have fireworks tonight please! (groan!) - Non UK peeps need to refer to this - which explains why annually we commemorate a person who tried to blow up our own parliament!
Anyhow just the 2
winners yesterday - the best is yet to come. It really will be a great days racing at Churchill Downs tomorrow and I'm really looking forward to it.
Here are my five racing reviews for a selections of the Breeders' Cup races tomorrow and I'll fill in the missing races in
the morning ............
this is a subtle subliminal hint (advertisers should try it - it might catch on!)
18:02 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf
A mile on a left handed sharpish track
should see the high draw with the advantage again. Pluck won from stall 12 (of 12) last year. Tequila Factor has a great name and best draw
but he would need all the others to stop off for a burger on the way home to
win this! It is extremely hard for me to
be objective about Caspar Netscher as I love this horse. Unfortunately the draw
and extra 2f isn’t inspiring much confidence in me – merely hope! Aiden
O’Brien’s record at the Breeder’s Cup to dates hasn’t been in keeping with his
record at any other corner of the planet and Wrote has a low draw so Ryan will
have to ride clever to buck the trend in this race. Hopefully the trend will be well and truly
bucked later with So You Think!
In this race thought, I’m going to opt
for a couple of US runners despite the Euros better record. The US based Magnier, Tabor & Smith
runner Finale has proven stamina and good draw then a big priced danger could
be Daddy Nose Best– both trainer and jockey have excellent course records and I
have a suspicion that he may run better with a bit of juice in the ground.
Finale UP (7th)
Daddy Nose Best UP (6th)
18:37 Breeders’ Cup Sprint (Dirt)
Last
year’s winner Big Drama (trained by David Fawkes and owned by Harold Queen no
less!) has been seen out twice since then and won on both occasions. A low draw is preferable in the dirt sprints
so Big Drama’s stall 8 isn’t the perfect start that he had last year (stall 1)
though. Euroears has that privilege and coming
from Bob Baffert’s stable deserves close consideration. You can forget his last run when he was
hampered at the start and never recovered and as long as doesn’t get into a
duel for the lead with one of two other front runners in the field, can perform
well. Aikenite can benefit it the front
runners take each other on and pounce later.
He’s a C&D winner, drawn in stall 3 and looks a overpriced at 14/1
Euroears UP
Aikenite UP (4th)
19:21 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint
You may be forgiven for the double take on
seeing Hoofit’s name on the card but this is the all-one-word edition of Hoofit. Unusually for a turf race, there are no Europeans
in this race. I’ve narrowed it down to
the aforementioned Hoofit, Regally Ready, Havelock and Caracortado – the rest
just haven’t shown enough to be serious contenders in my book!
This trip is probably too sharp for Hoofit
who has been contesting 6f, 7f and even mile races this year and also for
Caracortado who has been seen in mile and 9f races. Regally Ready has won a grade 1 LTO and a grade
2 race here over C&D in May and Steve Asmussen has a good record here with
his runners. Havelock could be next
best.
Regally Ready 1st
Havelock UP
20:45 Breeders’ Cup Turf Again it’s the high draw with
the advantage! Dangerous Midge won from
stall 7 of 7 last year and this year Midday has the plumb spot. The fact that she’s taking on the boys rather
than running in the Fillies & Mares Turf might worry you if she was trained
by anyone other then Sir Henry. Sea Moon
is very tempting yet has never won a group 1 but could come very close. Sarafina is tackling a sharper track that before
but that is the only negative I can find for her. Compare this with my 2 negatives for St Nicholas Abbey – the first is that Ryan
Moore isn’t up but Joseph O’Brien is instead.
Don’t get me wrong, I think he’s a excellent claimer and has ridden
group class winner(s) but this is a different league and (more importantly)
he’s ridden SNA twice and his best result was 3rd….the other neg is
the number 1 stall. It has to be
Sarafina with Sea Moon as my back up/forecast pick.
Sarafina UP (4th)
Sea Moon 2nd
and very well done to Joseph O'Brien (showed me didn't it!) lol
A low draw is usually the
advantage on dirt here over a mile but the last three winners in the dirt mile
(not the juvenile dirt mile) have been drawn 11, 10 and 10 so Union Rags draw
doesn’t deter me whatsoever on that basis.
Take Charge Indy is a big price and would be more closely considered if
he’d got any dirt form – he may perform but I’d prefer to put money on a horse
that has a proven record on this idiosyncratic surface. Dullahan in stall 2 is trained by Dale Romans
who has a very decent record here. He
has been placed 3rd here in the past and could run into a
place. However, Union Rags with his 3
runs/3 wins combined with his good draw may well be my
best bet of the meeting.
Union Rags 2nd
Dullahan UP (4th)
22:07 TVG Breeders’ Cup Mile
It's all about Goldikova and her chase
for a fourth successive BC Mile win! She’s one of three 6yo contesting this
– the other two are old adversary Gio Ponti and Court Visoin It’s tempting to try to find reasons that
Goldi won’t prevail once more (to justify
my partisan heart!) but it’s damn difficult and the best I can come up with
is that there are younger legs then hers on the way up…..not really any sort of
reason at all. Her defeat LTO was over a
too-short 7f so this bothers me not a jot and Freddy Head believes that she is
as good as last year when she won by almost 2 lengths from Gio Ponti so here’s
hoping that she read the script that Zenyatta failed to read last year and bows
out in style.
Strong Suit is drawn wide in stall 11
and the press and connections have been wailing about this but Goldikova won
from stall 10 last year and I really do not believe is to be the death knell
that it’s widely perceived to be – whether this is because the jockey thinks
more about how they’ll ride their race from this ‘poor’ draw I don’t know. I also think the handicapper has been quite
kind to Strong Suit if the truth be told!
A less obvious threat may be C&D
winner Turallure who, like Strong Suit (and
Goldikova last year) has a wide draw but also has a ultra-experienced
course jockey in Julien Leparoux. And
don’t be dismissing Sidney’s Candy trained by the Toddster – he prefers his
grass like rock but could still spring a surprise.
But it comes back round again to
Goldikova.
Goldikova 3rd
Turallure 2nd ...now that really hurt (a photo finish 2nd)
23:00 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Chantal Sutherland is a
Canadian jockey/model who will be riding Bob Baffert’s runner Game On Dude –
fellas, this is Chantal:
Now I have your
attention! I don’t think she’s going to win but wouldn’t it be great for racing
if she did?
It appears that this may
have been the target for So You Think all along but I’m not convinced a horse
(whatever their breeding) can win FTO in the top dirt race in the world
so I have moved my attention to Uncle Mo, Havre De Grace, To Honor And Serve
and Flat Out – I think one of these four will take this but some deduction is
now required!
Flat Out won her last
outing nicely over the same distance and on the same muddy dirt at Belmont Park
(with the same weight) but he does have a low draw away from the pace which I
think is enough to sink his chances.
This leaves Uncle Mo, Havre De Grace and To Honor And Serve.
Honor And Serve has
done all of his running on dirt and in some decent enough races but it’s all
been fast dirt and it would appear that previously if the conditions have been
anything other than this then he’s been scratched (for a reason).
Uncle Mo on the other
hand has won in these conditions but never over quite this far – the way he saw
out his last mile race would suggest the step up won’t be a problem but it’s not guaranteed and
his attempt at 9f in April at Group 1 level found him out but he could have now
improved.
Havre De Grace has won in
this muddiness and been narrowly beaten into 2nd over 10f so stamina
and conditions are both fine. She’s
shown she can mix it in quality company when placed 3rd here last
year in the Ladies Classic from a high draw as today. However this year she doesn’t get any age
allowance and although a filly is actually giving away a lb to Uncle Mo as he’s
a 3yo (like Frankel is a 3yo!!) we know she can hold her own in male company
from her penultimate run in a Group 1 at Saratoga though (she beat Flat Out on
that occasion) so although I’d have liked to have seen her a couple of lbs
lower, I’m siding with Havre De Grace and Uncle Mo as chief danger merchant.
Havre
De Grace UP (4th)
Uncle
Mo UP
……and will there be
anyone watching (or caring) who wins the Chilukki Stakes after the Classic at
11:40?
