The Breeders' Cup, Beer & Pizza Blog

I have dusted off my Breeders' Cup spreadsheets from 2009 (Santa Anita) and found some useful (still I hope!) statistics which helped me find one or two winners way back then...

The biggest change this year is the absence of Lasix for the young'uns.  Lasix is used to prevent racehorses from bleeding (shows from the nose but in actuality the bleeding comes from the lungs) but it also has the added side effect of being an effective diuretic.  The European 2yo horses aren't having to adapt to running without it like their North American counterparts which means that they should have a slight edge - although the travelling and acclimatisation may cancel some of that benefit out!

For this reason, I am going with Ceiling Kitty over Merit Man in the 20:06 Juvenile Sprint.  Both these runners have a nice advantageous low draw but Ceiling Kitty has been spotted working very nicely indeed and is the only runner in the line up not to have used Lasix before.  She has never run on dirt before which is obviously a big negative (and her price reflects this) but she has breeding with some high class US Storm Cat blood in the nix which would suggest this isn't a hopeless cause so at an each way price, I'll take a chance she's a dirty girl.

Ceiling Kitty ?

Man Of Iron - 2009 Santa Anita Marathon Winner

I love it that 14 furlongs is a marathon in the US!   Although it would be a nice sight to watch Fame And Glory cross the winning line first in the Marathon at 20:46, I have looked for a runner with proven dirt form at this distance.  Although he’s never run over this distance, Jaycito (the Bob Baffert trained runner) has the pedigree to support this attempt.  

A low draw (1-6) in the Juvenile Fillies Turf (21:28) is a definite advantage so it’s no 

surprise that this is where the top four in the betting are drawn.  Sky Lantern, Spring Venture, Watsdachances and Flotilla are the four in question.  Again the lack of Lasix may have a significant impact on the US trained runners which leaves me pondering between Sky Lantern (who has never raced on firm) and Flotilla who has only ever raced on soft, very soft or heavy …. A fairly easy decision then especially since favourites have a great record in this race - I’ll be shouting home Hughsie on Sky Lantern.

The Juvenile Fillies at 22:08 is possibly the easiest race tonight in which to part with my hard earned.  Executiveprivilege ticks all stats boxes and has the form to take this without too much problem (brave words!).  The stats that he ticks are (1) Californian trained and Kentucky bred (2) Has won on other surfaces other than dirt &  importantly on synthetic surface (3) Never finished out of the first two (4) is favourite!  He’s won every race ever contested and beat two of this field in the past.

Ridsiyana has tempted me in the Filly & Mare Turf at 22:48 but she has plenty of classy opposition this evening.  The 3yo allowance is most definitely a help over this distance but the going is an unknown (apparently the turf is as firm as Mike Tysons biceps).  She comes into this race is decent form with a Group 1 victory under her belt girth but with a mysterious ‘blip’ on her penultimate run -  the more forgiving could say that the race wasn’t run to suit.  She won’t be allowed to use Lasix here either.  I like the price look of Lady Of Shamrock who come into the race in equally decent form and with two Group 1’s under her girth – the Del Mar and the American Oaks.  LoS has proved herself on firm going and she has the assistance of regular partner Mike Smith who knows his way around here well enough.   It’ll be two bets for me in this race – a win bet on Ridsiyana and an each way on Lady Of Shamrock.

Finally this evening for those still awake at 23:30, it’s back to the dirt track for the Ladies’ Cup Classic.   The low draw is favoured (1-3) in my book, which would have Grace Hall, My Miss Aurelia and Class Included in the mix.  Class Included just shouldn't be good enough so a line straight through her!  My Miss Aurelia is a dirt specialist who has yet to see the backside of any horse at the winning line and is trained by Steven Asmussen who knows how to win the big races!  MMA has three group 1 notches on her bedpost whereas Grace Hall seems to have spent her career in her shadow and not being quite good enough when it comes to the top races.  My Miss Aurelia to win and a small each way on Grace Hall just in case she pulls out the run of her life.

Now to settle down with the beer lined up, the pizza ordered and cheer home a winner or two (think positive!!)