Here it is ! The day of the Arc... you could easily be forgiven that the one on the left would have the best chance given the heavy conditions! Apparently, not only is it heavy but it's also 'sticky' which is going to mean the runners need to get every yard of the one and a half miles - guaranteed stamina required then!It will be Frankie Dettori's 25th consecutive year with a ride in this race and he is on board Camelot as JOB can't make the weight (8-11). This means he is riding up against Masterstroke - Godolphin's French trained runner. Lots of hoohaa in the press about this but given that throughout this 2012 season, it's been patently obvious that Frankie has been shuffled down the pack to make way for newer younger talent I don't see why such surprise. He's been a loyal and invaluable asset for many years so I cannot believe that Godolphin would be so petty and small minded as to begrudge him the ride today and looking forward, the chance to carry on riding freelance for a few more years (assuming they don't renew the contract after this year).
Back to the race in question and a couple of stats worthy of note are that 3yo have a better record in this race than any other age group and the past ten winners were having their first ever start in this race
Orfevre's hopes would appear to have been well and truly dashed when the draws were announced. Stall 18 is normally as conducive to winning the Arc De Triomphe as feather filled boxing gloves would be to winning the world heavyweight boxing title. It's not unheard of (Dalakhani won from a double figured draw in 2003) and in these conditions it would be wise to give the draw a little less consideration that would normally be the case...and this coming from a draw fanatic! Orfevre is the C&D class horse of the field with five Group 1 races and three Group 2's on his CV. Still a huge presence in this field despite the draw.
Whether Camelot won the Irish Derby in spite of the soft/heavy ground is another puzzle. I personally don't believe that this is the case given his breeding since Daddy Montjeu won on soft/heavy and has produced plenty offspring that have done the same. Camelot was carrying a little more condition than was ideal for the St Leger and I think will do himself better justice today but the 4/1 looks too skinny for me. Two of O'Brien's other runners, Robin Hood (Seamie Heffernan) and Ernest Hemingway (Colm O'Donohue) look to be on pacemaking duty (along with Aventino for Orfevre). After not bothering with one in the St Leger it would appear that Aiden has learned his lesson .... but you can never be sure about Ballydoyle's number ones - just remember Was (Seamie Heffernan) in the Oaks this year at 20/1 burning off Maybe! Which brings us to:
Saint Nicholas Abbey won his maiden on soft/heavy and i have a note from way back when that "Garry O'Gorman (Irish handicapper) rates this horse as highly as Sea The Stars. Will win classics BUT might not stay a mile and a half" Well, he's done both and sharing the same sire as Camelot, I would go with the "he can win on the ground" rather than the "he can win in spite of the ground" theory.
Great Heavens connections have paid £81K to supplement him for the race. I believe William Buick is on of the top 3 jockeys in the world when it comes to the big races. He can get things spectacularly wrong in a class 4 at Kempton but is always prepared and has done his homework for the big ones. Of course, it helps that he is riding for John Gosden but if I was a Sheikh of Dubai, then I'd have snapped up Will long ago! Great Heavens has a decent draw (7), will be perfectly happy on the ground and there is absolutely no question about the trip. A hot contender but perhaps a little short of the class required.
Saonois is this year's French Derby winner but the form of that race is open to question (not truly run). There's no denying that he's a brave horse with an excellent turn of foot and is a proven mile and a halfer with a good draw but conditions and the likely stronger gallop today may be too much for him today.
Bayrir is another who has been supplemented for this. He came second to Saonois last time out and whereas Saonois will probably be less suited by a stronger gallop, this should play to Bayrir's strengths. The going is a big question mark though but thet connections were totally aware of the this when they paid their £81K supplement ...they won't have been aware of the nasty draw though. However the 20/1 around is very tempting for each way/place value!
The aforementioned Masterstroke has also been unlucky with the draw and will be coming from stall 17 next to Orfevre. The conditions will probably suit but that isn't a given and this is too much of a ? for my £.
Sea Moon is a horse that I have to admit a soft spot for and is of course partnered by Ryan Moore who ad his comeback ride on Friday after several weeks out with a wrist injury. In my opinion, he gave Sea Moon a rare dreadful ride in the King George, finding himself with far too much to do from behind when they went off hell for leather - alongside Joseph O'Brien on SNA who didn't cover himself in glory that day either. He's a game horse though and will go on any ground but there is a nagging feeling that he just isn't up to this level.
All things considered and looking for some value, I shall be on Orfevre,
Saint Nicholas Abbey and Bayrir all each way . I shan't be unhappy if Sea Moon wins but it will be without my money weighing him down!
We're now in the midst of silly (form) season with the winter jumpers coming out and needing a run (beware claimer bookings!), AW horses coming out and needing a run, bouncers and penalty laden 2nd time outers together and some very tired and exposed flat horses who have had enough and now just want their winter coats and a rest. These are not optimum conditions in which to pick winners!
If you don't manage to pick any winners today or tomorrow then just remind yourself that one of the first things that US officials did when Abu Hamza arrived in their country was to confiscate his hook....well it made me smile !
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